Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Right of the tree nice may have to zoom in..

Looking south

Brewing for someone further north lol

Edited July 2, 2015 by Surrey

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wouldn't worry about tomorrow's potential. Swings and roundabouts will always happen! We could get lucky, we might not. All depends on the timing and how far west it will get.

[carinthian]

Isolated thunderstorm between Worthing and Brighton moving into South Downs. Good clearance to the west should allow a fine end to the day along the West Sussex coast.

C

[Storm mad]

I'm sure I can see a cell to the south west of Chelmsford Essex going up

[toggerob]

Moderate rain here as the front begins to cross, darkening skies to the west.

[Harsh Climate]

I wonder if that rain band to the west will spark off as it pushes a little further east into the warmer air and slightly higher CAPE

[ChezWeather]

Looks like that band of rain is prepping up nicely to my west, shame it will probably develop here and give a good storm further NE 

[Supacell]

The rain band is just about to arrive here in Derby. There are signs of intensification but it will have to intensify quick to produce T+L here. Maybe a better chance further north and east. 

 

Great minds think alike ChezWeather

Edited July 2, 2015 by Supacell

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The rain band is just about to arrive here in Derby. There are signs of intensification but it will have to intensify quick to produce T+L here. Maybe a better chance further north and east. 

 

Great minds think alike ChezWeather

Some big cumulus look like they're going up over Lincolnshire, this could be the start of their probable treat later!

[Harry]

Have set the camcorder up just in case...sky darkening to the south  

 

Come on baby...lightning activity seems to be dropping to me however

[Polar Maritime]

Some very dark sky's to my West and a breeze picking up. Temp 20c, A few spots of rain just starting now..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun out wind picking up nothing on radar 5 minutes later..

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

Do I make anything of these? Or am I just desperate? 😅

[cheese]

I wonder if that rain band to the west will spark off as it pushes a little further east into the warmer air and slightly higher CAPE

That's what I'm thinking - and I suspect that's primarily the reason for the Met Office's warning. Certainly warm today at 25C - now 23C and humid. We'll see.

[hammerb32]

Had 1 strike of lightening to the north west of Birmingham Airport, - hope for those in Derby I would suggest

[Polar Maritime]

Pic here.. heavy rain now. Nothing sparking..

Edited July 2, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[IanR]

spotted this on u tube, the north west england storm filmed from the peak district, incredible to think i was under that, rivals a midwest supercell for amount of lightning, and it is not timelasped 

Edited July 2, 2015 by IanR

[Harry]

I think this Brighton cell has died electrically...just as its about to arrive...

 

Not my year I'm thinking....even if nothing was forecast for today.

 

Interestingly, didnt notice this before but the 6z NMM suggesting fair bit of SBCAPE around this afternoon, more than GFS was showing last night.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[Supacell]

Had 1 strike of lightening to the north west of Birmingham Airport, - hope for those in Derby I would suggest

 

Like the sound of that. Gone dark and windy here, looks like a storm incoming but radar still looks unimpressive.

[StormChaseUK]

spotted this on u tube, the north west england storm filmed from the peak district, incredible to think i was under that, rivals a midwest supercell for amount of lightning

Wow that is amazing for the UK, I havent seen anything like that since Singapore. very rare here.

 

The GFS has downgraded for tomorrow night, I have got to admit the fantastic storms last night and much cooler rainy weather today that is the end of the current thunder spell.

Tomorrow I think will be a non event now, even well into the night I might be wrong, but the energy component has gone. 

[Stuart]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 Jul 2015 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 Jul 2015

ISSUED 15:52 UTC Thu 02 Jul 2015

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 15:52 UTC Tweaks to SLGT over England, added new SLGT to N/NE Scotland

 

No forecast discussion to due time constraints - apologies for any inconvenience caused.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-07-02

[ChezWeather]

spotted this on u tube, the north west england storm filmed from the peak district, incredible to think i was under that, rivals a midwest supercell for amount of lightning, and it is not timelasped 

This is nearly identical to the view I had, pretty gutted that my phone had low battery so I couldnt film. It was amazing to watch the storm drift north and intensify along the way. 

Great storm for the NW and the NE. 

 

And on another note, the North sea is literally awash with lightning! 

Edited July 2, 2015 by ChezWeather

[Summer Sun]

Early warning from skywarn

 

Severe Thunderstorm Alert #47

SkywarnUK has isssued a Severe Thunderstorm Alert for the whole of England and Wales and Southern Scotland

Large, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop with potential for severe weather including 30mm of rain in an hour (upto 50mm in 3 hours locally), frequent lightning, large (>10mm) hail and possible tornadoes.

This alert runs from 1800hrs on Friday 3rd July 2015 until 1200hrs on Saturday 4th July.

Many areas will not see any storms however where they do develop, and as they travel North and Northeastwards during the alert period, there is potential for damage to property
livestock and environments

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Polar Maritime]

spotted this on u tube..

 

Yes it was a sight to behold 

[A.J]

Wow that is amazing for the UK, I havent seen anything like that since Singapore. very rare here

 

The GFS has downgraded for tomorrow night, I have got to admit the fantastic storms last night and much cooler rainy weather today that is the end of the current thunder spell.

Tomorrow I think will be a non event now, even well into the night I might be wrong, but the energy component has gone. 

what are you basing this on?.......GFS12z progs over 1000 j/kg of mixed layer CAPE over a good swathe of central southern England and the SE, plus some DLS, and decent lapse rates.....the first thing I thought, when I saw the 12z frames for tomorrow night, is elevated storms