Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Buckster]

Well that's not so good for me - had kind of hoped anything would form south of me and move overhead...back to possibly being a breeding ground again.

More AcCas in the sky again over London including some developing jellyfish...evening jellyfish are usually good precursors to overnight storms (numerous occasions they have been spot on signalmen)image.jpg

 

interesting - no Jellyfish here in Essex !

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

And so it begins. Sferics breaking out near Isles of Scilly.

Expecting rapid development over the next few hours over Central Southern England.

Channel Islands sparking up now!

Edited July 3, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[elfinpunk]

That Northern France sferic doesn't seem to have any reason to exist according to the radar. X

[joanna1971]

Why is that the met office forecasts online for regional areas do not show any thunder/lightening it's just rain ?? Having issued a weather warning for violent storms surely they should include it in their forecasts

[matt_in_dudley]

What type of cloud is this?

[pip22]

Storms have broken out in the Celtic Sea.

[DAVID SNOW]

interesting - no Jellyfish here in Essex !

 

No, just jellied eels!

[pip22]

What type of cloud is this?

Altocumulus

[Ben Sainsbury]

A few light showers ahead of the Brest cell which would seem like to develop.

[Paul Sherman]

Warm Front is easy to find and its surging north now.

 

Le Touquet has a dewpoint of 66f

Lydd has a dewpoint of 64f

 

Areas further north now 59f dewpoints and rising

 

Would suggest the Warm front is in an arc just inland of the Kent/Sussex Coast and moving North North West at present, watch the humidity sky rocket in the next few hours as that theta air streams in

[ChezWeather]

Some big totals on the EURO4, favouring Lincs, the Wash area. 

[Gordon Webb]

just looking at the other forecasts looks like it'll start for me after midnight and last a couple of houre as they seem to be tracking quite quickly

[UKSupercell]

What type of cloud is this?

 

Altocumulus Mackerel I think. 

[Mark -W-s-M]

Skies darkening to my south and southwest

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some big totals on the EURO4, favouring Lincs, the Wash area. 

 

A big kick in the balls to those in the W by that model....hardly any precipitation at all over Wales on that run!

[Mapantz]

Temp has been on the rise again, here. Dew point at 17.2°C

[tomp456]

This is the scene looking towards the channel

I'm one county too East for action I think.

 

Good luck to everyone west and north & east of me yall 

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2015 by tomp456

[UKSupercell]

Skies darkening to my south and southwest

I once witnessed a summer thunderstorm at school with skies exactly like that. The thunder was gunshot-like. I honestly think that sort of turbulence is an indicator that convection is strong and the tops of those clouds are possibly growing. 

 

I've seen it before numerous times. 

[ChezWeather]

A big kick in the balls to those in the W by that model....hardly any precipitation at all over Wales on that run!

If theres one thing in common between the current model runs, its that the area SW of the Wash into Lincolnshire will see the highest rainfall totals. 

 

EURO4 seems to write the event off for the west, but the other models do not. All to play for yet, but if I was chasing i know exactly where id be heading! 

Edited July 3, 2015 by ChezWeather

[UKSupercell]

To the experts: Where is the supposed activity going to erupt then? Across northern France, the channel or southern England? 8pm now in France and sweet FA so far....though I know people have been saying be patient it'll be a late affair. 

[ancientsolar]

This is the scene looking South from the SE Wales valleys

IPAD reversing pictures ~ fixed

Edited July 3, 2015 by ancientsolar

[Cheshire Freeze]

If theres one thing in common between the current model runs, its that the area SW of the Wash into Lincolnshire will see the highest rainfall totals. 

 

EURO4 seems to right the event off for the west, but the other models do not. All to play for yet, but if I was chasing i know exactly where id be heading! 

 

Having gone from training potential supercells up the E-W border last night it has now shifted everything to Lincolnshire. I'll be bloody p*ed off if that's how it unfolds

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If theres one thing in common between the current model runs, its that the area SW of the Wash into Lincolnshire will see the highest rainfall totals. 

 

EURO4 seems to write the event off for the west, but the other models do not. All to play for yet, but if I was chasing i know exactly where id be heading!

Right in my back yard!!

Fancy meeting me for a brew chasers !

[Wet'n'Dry]

For what it's worth this is my prediction.

 

SW England/Wales infrequent elevated storms moving North and dying before 23:00

Central England towards Lincolnshire , weak storms throughout the night.

SE England nothing until 02:00 onwards then severe storms lasting into the daylight hours.

 

I'm in no way qualified to say why but I have seen this scenario before!!

[Panayiotis]

Great looking clouds down the bay now...looking towards the south.

As for tonight, not giving into the models, just radar watching and looking towards the sky! That would be my recommendation!