Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[chionomaniac]

As promised, here's the re-run of the 6z on our NetWx-SR model, using the physics which has in the past been excellent in storm situations.

 

Erm, quite lively......

 

22z.png 00z.png

02z.png 04z.png

Bloomin' heck Paul, I have just fallen off my chair!

[Neilsouth]

Pretty capped atmosphere down here at Gatwick where I'm working atm, not even any altocumulus that normally heralds storms later, just thin high cirrus, 25C in hazy sunshine and a strong easterly wind. You wouldn't think storms are possibly on the way later...

 

Agreed, yet the other day it felt really stormy and nothing happened! Just can't win

[tomp456]

As promised, here's the re-run of the 6z on our NetWx-SR model, using the physics which has in the past been excellent in storm situations.

 

Erm, quite lively......

 

22z.png 00z.png

02z.png 04z.png

If that comes off it will be nearly as good as winning the lottery. Come on!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bloomin' heck Paul, I have just fallen off my chair!

 

I just weed myself.. 

[William Grimsley]

Undulations in the Ac and Ac Cas to my south now, a lovely mid level of unstable looking sky. Will try to post pictures shortly.

[Andy Pepler]

I just weed myself.. 

would you like to buy some netweather branded nappies for tonights action lolol

[jmatt81]

Yea it will go up the m5 turn off at junction 2a go along the m42 stop off at the hop wood services for a cup of tay and a full English .before carrying on to Coventry drop a few bolts here n there with loud bangs.then onto Leicester for more bangs and flashes of lightning then onto Grantham before giving Lincoln a great display then onto the east coast as per usual.

 

I guarantee Leicester will get nothing. It will come along the M69 before splitting and going up and down the M1 before meeting again over Loughborough. Leicester has a weather shield. Don't know why but many times I have watched the radar and storms go round it rather than through it.

[pookie1989]

what time are these due in from france? Im watching the lightning radar and nothing in france yet, i know im not technical AT ALL but just making myself aware as very scared right now. Thankyou 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

would you like to buy some netweather branded nappies for tonights action lolol

 

Already got them, and they do PJs to

[Harry]

what time are these due in from france? Im watching the lightning radar and nothing in france yet, i know im not technical AT ALL but just making myself aware as very scared right now. Thankyou 

 

Many hours to go yet...I'm yet to see a model which develops any storms prior to 7pm and beyond...most models nearer 9-10pm at the earliest.

[matty40s]

1st cells starting near winchester..

[Azazel]

1st cells starting near winchester..

 

 

really? Do not want. Far too early

[matty40s]

Looks like kicking off just east of Winchester...

[UKSupercell]

Rows of Ac Cas in south Bucks now. Looking more promising. 

- some action from one of the supercells (likely) to effect the Netherlands last night.....enjoy. 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime - possible supercells smashing northern Italy and southern Germany right now. 

[BA Baracus]

There is a radar splott off the coast of Hartlepool in addition to the bits near Winchester.

[StormChaseUK]

1st cells starting near winchester..

Yes it is.. hmm on the animation though it is moving in an "anaprop" like way, so not too certain.

 

Next 30 mins will tell

[Harry]

1st cells starting near winchester..

 

Nah that's anaprop, unless you have a visual that proves otherwise.

[SalopWatcher]

If you go back over the last hour on the netweatehr 5 min radar there has been lots of these little splodges in the same area north of the south coast.. only for them to be gone completely in the next radar grab.... I don't know much about it, but worth keeping in mind. 

[SnowJoke]

Looks like kicking off just east of Winchester...

 

Looks like anaprop to me, possibly due to the rise in humidity.

[Nick L]

That stuff near Winchester is anaprop.

If you go back over the last hour on the netweatehr 5 min radar there has been lots of these little splodges in the same area north of the south coast.. only for them to be gone completely in the next radar grab.... I don't know much about it, but worth keeping in mind. 

 

Again, most likely to be anaprop.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

That stuff near Winchester is anaprop.

 

Again, most likely to be anaprop.

 

Good to know how it appears on radar.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Very hazy skies now and pretty breezy, quite chilly compared to a couple of hours ago. I'm erring on the side of hmmm maybe a few flashes to the west later on because every time I rig up the camera etc nowt happens......and half the time I can't remember the settings but at least I get to practice in the dark

[Pursuer of Storms]

Things are starting to look pretty interesting here. Altocumulus to the south and bubbling up quite quickly!

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21293-altocumulus/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21294-altocumulus/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21295-altocumulus/

Edited July 3, 2015 by Pursuer of Storms

[phil nw.]

A good chance of some real T.Storm action tonight for our region by the looks of things.

I am certainly no expert on storm formation but tonight seems our best chance of this hot spell as moist Tropical Atlantic air enters the mix.

Looking at the 06Z Nweather s/r model a line of storms are forecasted to be heading into our region by 00z tonight.

some very intense downpours in that lot I would think.

let's hope for a light show tonight.

[Paul90]

This forum later tonight

 

 

and this