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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted (edited)

Lol @ Chezweather and Harrys latest replies

 

Could not have 2 totally different responses and interpretations of the model runs.

 

I know where I would be if I could chase this, gotta get out of the sister in laws 50th Birthday party first, hopefully can get away and meet with Peter Scott and get some Uk Chasing in!

Edited by Paul Sherman
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Sorry to ask but this is my first ever reply, are these storms imports or home grown? Im in Shropshire, petrified of them but interested in it all 

 

Difficult to tell...the NMM charts (above) for example, show them to be home grown (better in my own experience). However, if storms erupt over France then we could see a combination of home growns and imports.

 

Given the atmospheric conditions present whether home grown or imported storms will be spectacular.

Lol @ Chezweather and Harrys latest replies

 

Could not have 2 totally different responses and interpretations of the model runs.

 

I know where I would be if I could chase this, gotta get out of the sister in laws 50th Birthday party first, hopefully can get away and meet with Peter Scott and get some Uk Chasing in!

 

Lol, good luck with that!

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Looks like I am spending my Friday night with the netweather convective community, hoping for a light show and cold beers ready to either enjoy or drown myself with. :)

 

Hoping the Bristol storm shield is annhilated again this year.

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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted

Lol @ Chezweather and Harrys latest replies

 

Could not have 2 totally different responses and interpretations of the model runs.

 

I know where I would be if I could chase this, gotta get out of the sister in laws 50th Birthday party first, hopefully can get away and meet with Peter Scott and get some Uk Chasing in!

Id got myself mixed up haha, its UKMO going for the NW / Easterly split 

post-17481-0-53761000-1435924174_thumb.p

post-17481-0-16254000-1435924175_thumb.p

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

My hot spot would be Hampshire with London & SE seeing the best light show not seen since 1915. Seriously I was down near Hastings about 5 years ago and there was a terrific storm the hail was the size of golf balls and there was a lot of damage, this is the main concern I think. Conducive environment for supercells these most likely fully flegged north of the M4 but I wouldn't be so sure. Tis a nice day in SE London.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Going to be a long night for most of us!  Those in the north..... Don't wait up!  Could be 5am before the storms even reach you and it will be daylight by then!  Those in the south have a good chance of seeing somehting before sunrise, though it will still be midnight gone before areas north of London see anything.

 

post-2036-0-95953300-1435924246_thumb.pn

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

The 06Z run from UKMO for aviation has a great night in store for everyone in the south and also agrees with something big around the Wash at 03Z.

 

wafc_hnat_cb-extent_base_top_2015070306_

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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted

Yep, tis important to bear in mind with these various flavours of the NMM etc is that there are a multitude of physics options and params within the model that can be changed/tuned + differences in the initial conditions, model used etc etc. 

 

Hi Paul

 

Is your 4km running a CU scheme, and is it nested or a straight 4km grid?

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Difficult to tell...the NMM charts (above) for example, show them to be home grown (better in my own experience). However, if storms erupt over France then we could see a combination of home growns and imports.

 

Given the atmospheric conditions present whether home grown or imported storms will be spectacular.

 

Lol, good luck with that!

 

She did mention having some papers to sign if I went missing tonight, and after 2 months away chasing she may have a point, but will keep trying, 16th wedding anniversary tomorrow as well so better not pee her off too much!  :D

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

These runs are pretty much identical looking to the 28/06/2005, I know I've said the same thing before about the previous bust we had though!

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Id got myself mixed up haha, its UKMO going for the NW / Easterly split 

 

Again do not worry if it looks like these charts are missing your area - some storms may be elevated with less precipitation and also when the time comes they rarely keep exact to the precip forecasts...broad area perhaps but not exact.

 

Would only take a 'cheeky' cell to pop up and develop into a nice storm.

Edited by Chris K
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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

I'm so scared! Will be night under duvet with music on!! Hope they move through quickly then can sleep!

Same here but it will be the tv in my case

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

The 06Z run from UKMO for aviation has a great night in store for everyone in the south and also agrees with something big around the Wash at 03Z.

 

wafc_hnat_cb-extent_base_top_2015070306_

Bellisimo and I'm not even from the Fens well Birmingham 2005 Tornado 10th anniversary is coming up...

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

These runs are pretty much identical looking to the 28/06/2005, I know I've said the same thing before about the previous bust we had though!

 

 

I remember that one - we had a storm to our SW and another to the NE, which, between them, generated almost continual T&L for an hour.

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Hathers Contributor

Hathers

Posted
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire, Orlando
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire, Orlando
Posted

So sorry for all the questions! Will i definately see storms in Shropshire?

With thunderstorm activity nothing is nailed on but there is a good chance Shropshire will see something .

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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted

Again do not worry if it looks like these charts are missing your area - some storms may be elevated with less precipitation and also when the time comes they rarely keep exact to the precip forecasts...broad area perhaps but not exact.

 

Would only take a 'cheeky' cell to pop up and develop into a nice storm.

Totally agree, the models are after all, only models, and should only be used as a rough guideline. 

 

Im liking the looks of tonight anyway, my camera is charged tonight! (unlike Wednesday when I missed the opportunity to film the Manchester storm) and the car is fuelled. 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Same here but it will be the tv in my case

So glad im not only one who hates it, i dont like lightning at all. Seems like it will be an all nighter for me

Don't worry chaps, you're far from being alone. I have members in my family who fear it also.

Remember it will be hit and miss, so there's a good chance you will miss the brunt of any storms.

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Snowshine Enthusiast

Snowshine

Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire
Posted

The radar shows this stuff is actually making an effort to avoid my area.

post-17472-0-87152200-1435925318_thumb.j

post-17472-0-19766000-1435925457_thumb.p

 

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