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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

MetO have upgraded the warnings;

 

Isolated heavy, and possibly severe, thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday evening across parts of southern and southwest England. These are likely to become more frequent later and spread northwards across Wales, the Midlands and northern England overnight, and into southern Scotland by the early hours of Saturday. Some torrential downpours are possible leading to localised surface water flooding, with hail, frequent lightning and squally winds also likely hazards.

The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption.

This is an update to the warning to extend the yellow area across southern Scotland and elevate the position in the risk matrix. This will be kept under review and further updates are possible closer to, and during, the event. On Friday evening another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread northwards from the continent. This airmass looks conducive to the development of isolated thunderstorms during the evening across southern and southwest England which are likely to become more frequent overnight as they spread northwards towards Scotland. With large amounts of energy again available in this atmosphere storms could be severe, with torrential downpours, hail and squally gusts of wind. 30 mm of rain is possible in less than an hour, with as much as 50 mm possible in 3 hours very locally.

Large uncertainty remains regarding areas most at risk from storms, and many areas will miss these altogether, staying largely dry. However, where they do develop, disruption is possible. The most likely area for disruption is considered to be Wales, parts of the Midlands and northern (especially northwest) England, but a lesser risk extends around the periphery of this region.

 

Matrix has been updated too.

 

No specific mention of the SE (primarily S and SW then moving N or NE). Same areas on the map under yellow warning, though have extended it further north.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Lots of talk about the West Mids/Welsh Boarder on here this morning being a favored spot. If so I'm going out chasing tonight, with phone, charger and will try and stream it on Periscope if i can. First time attempting such a thing, but will put up some details later if it all comes together. 

 

Fingers Crossed 

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

She's a tricky one today :nonono::wink: :wink:

 

The south west will have the more rapid air change, while the east will have the heat energy.

 

I'd tend to go with places that have not had storms as yet, so Oxford/London area,  Bristol, East Wales/Midlands.

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post-3631-0-96205300-1435920018_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

its all sounding west and north of my location at the mo, although the comments of the supercell around the wash has given me a little hope, lol

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

Lots of talk about the West Mids/Welsh Boarder on here this morning being a favored spot. If so I'm going out chasing tonight, with phone, charger and will try and stream it on Periscope if i can. First time attempting such a thing, but will put up some details later if it all comes together. 

 

Fingers Crossed 

I will be chasing Clee Hill area/maybe Hereford from my base in Shropshire. But not until I know nearer the time, I guess by 8pm/9pm we will know for certain.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

(Originally posted in wrong thread - sorry!)

A memorable storm tonight would be a perfect way to go on one last chase in my trusty old work van Doug before I have to accept the inevitable and retire him from service.

Doug and I have been chasing storms for the last 3 summers and it was with him that I watched last year's colossal July 17th/18th storm develop and pass through.

Had some amazing times in that van and very sad to see him go. It really is like losing part of the family but time to move on.

To see another amazing storm tonight would be a fitting farewell to an old pal - maybe even a direct lightning strike would be nice - kinda like a Viking burial!

On a serious note though - I don't actually want to be struck by lightning - but I want him to see one last storm before he goes.

;-(

(Actually makes me feel quite emotional thinking about it)

For tonight - looks like top of the M25 near the Essex border is prime location . Just need somewhere with altitude and/or open space for visuals (and a BRIDGE or something to hide under!)

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

Lots of talk about the West Mids/Welsh Boarder on here this morning being a favored spot. If so I'm going out chasing tonight, with phone, charger and will try and stream it on Periscope if i can. First time attempting such a thing, but will put up some details later if it all comes together. 

 

Fingers Crossed 

I'm tempted to head up to the Long Mynd but looks like it won't kick off until the early hours??

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

Looks like metcheck evaluation won't be far off the mark judging by latest charts and met warning and they both stress that a lot of areas will not much at all

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury

I will be chasing Clee Hill area/maybe Hereford from my base in Shropshire. But not until I know nearer the time, I guess by 8pm/9pm we will know for certain.

 

Depending on what happens, I was thinking of heading South and up onto Long Mynd, East options on the M54 are decent too, as I can think of a few goo panoramic views. North a nightmare as it involves the A49 and its pretty flat, and slow as to drive if the rain is heavy. If its more out to wales the A5 gets me to Oswestry pretty quick and know lots of good spots around there... Prepared to go a fair distance tonight, if its warranted. 

 

Going to have to nick the wife's phone for a radar, and use mine to stream. Got to get over that issue first! 

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Posted
  • Location: Willsbridge, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Willsbridge, Bristol

I'm prepared to travel up to 2 hours from Bristol but so undecided as to where!? I don't understand much about charts etc :(

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Right...I can't work this out

 

Below are two charts from (I presume) the same 00z WRF-NMM 2KM model

 

The first is the UK map - pony for the SE/Home Counties I'm sure you would agree

 

post-3790-0-99680300-1435921796_thumb.pn

 

When one looks at the same charts for France, for the same time (0300)...completely different

 

post-3790-0-49230000-1435921846_thumb.pn

 

Make of that what you will...I'm sure there's an explanation...yet to think of one though! Latter option please :D

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk

I'm prepared to travel up to 2 hours from Bristol but so undecided as to where!? I don't understand much about charts etc :(

if i was going to go somewhere, it would be south of the M4 wiltshire and hampshire look like hotspots.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Got a full tank of fuel ready to chase if need be. This is looking superb IMBY to be fair though!

However, we've all seen through experience what can happen, so I'm on standby to chase just incase.

Pretty much anywhere is in for a fair shout at a spectacular storm tonight though.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk

Right...I can't work this out

 

Below are two charts from (I presume) the same 00z WRF-NMM 2KM model

 

The first is the UK map - pony for the SE/Home Counties I'm sure you would agree

 

attachicon.gifnmm_uk1-1-25-0.png

 

When one looks at the same charts for France, for the same time (0300)...completely different

 

attachicon.gifnmm_fr1-1-25-0.png

 

Make of that what you will...I'm sure there's an explanation...yet to think of one though! Latter option please :D

 

 

 

the latter chart is similar to the SRH chart, which shows the highest potential for a supercell, and higher probability for large hail.

Edited by thunderhead 2005
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

I know this sounds silly, but we are going to put some padded covers over our cars tonight! We don't want any risk of adding to the dents we already have - I know it's unlikely that we'll get anything as severe as Wednesday night - but we're not taking any chances - and it means we can watch any developments without worrying.

 

For those of you who didn't get the large hail on Wednesday, please remember that if this happens again it is not something to be taken lightly - those things bend metal. That size of object could injure you if you are out in the open, and I don't even want to think about encountering it in a moving vehicle.

 

We all need to stay safe and enjoy anything that develops sensibly. With it being Friday night and most of us looking forward to a few bevvies we need to be extra careful.

 

I think you can tell that Wednesday night made a bit of a lasting impression on me...

Edited by Spikecollie
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I'm also still puzzling over the Estofex forecast too...it's highlight greatest thunderstorm potential where most models are not...although the point was made earlier, if GFS is their primary source, this would explain it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

the latter chart is similar to the SRH chart, which shows the highest potential for a supercell, and higher probability for large hail.

 

What is the SRH chart?

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

back home in Wilts now.......I'm not going to chase tonight, as I've a feeling there's  a good probability of storms coming to me, and 360 degree visibility is good locally...Cameras are ready......just a case of waiting and seeing now :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Cirrus has now cleared from here, but that notable humid related haze appearing on the eastern horizon.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex

Right...I can't work this out

 

Below are two charts from (I presume) the same 00z WRF-NMM 2KM model

 

The first is the UK map - pony for the SE/Home Counties I'm sure you would agree

 

attachicon.gifnmm_uk1-1-25-0.png

 

When one looks at the same charts for France, for the same time (0300)...completely different

 

attachicon.gifnmm_fr1-1-25-0.png

 

Make of that what you will...I'm sure there's an explanation...yet to think of one though! Latter option please :D

 

They could well be two different model grids placed over different geographic regions, rather than one big 2KM grid. Probably a good example of how these models are quite sensitive to the initial conditions they are initialised with and their model configuration, physics, domain sizes etc.

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