Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[pip22]

This is reminds me of yesterday!!

 

https://instagram.com/p/4pZQQZgpJB/

 

A supercell in the Netherlands today.

 

 

https://www.periscope.tv/w/aGWY5jQyODAzMDJ8MzI2NTQ2NDBLAAU6pY5mBfYFTlDX2V1T3n3PvUwk_syB7cmoUlTvcg==

 

another one ^^

Edited July 2, 2015 by pip22

[Paul Sherman]

Can you explain...?

 

Lol glad you asked that as well - Am a bit stumped by that chart tbh

[Havaturkali]

Can you explain...?

Due to the high humidity and strong upper level winds tornado may occur.

 

Edited July 2, 2015 by Havaturkali

[sconetone]

Live stream from Arnhem, Netherlands - right in the thick of that huge storm

Good grief - that is a hell of a lot of lightning!

https://webcam.nl/a325_gelredome/

Edited July 2, 2015 by sconetone

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The West Midlands always seems to miss storms though.

 

very true that actually, can see it very stormy in south, then weakening, then intensifying around Manchester northwards

[Mercury Rising]

impressive 

 

http://www2.nijmegen.nl/bezoek/fotofilmwebcam/webcam_waalkade

[Harry]

Lol glad you asked that as well - Am a bit stumped by that chart tbh

My interpretation, perhaps wrong, is that a strong feed of moisture and energy from the SE, combined with prevailing S or SW steering winds (plus a strengthening jet), storms could potentially gain some spin. Moisture invades from the SE but all models predict storm motion either S-N or SW-NE.

Regardless of tornadic potential, I am storm starved so would take a big standard storm at this rate

Wouldn't at all be surprised if Estofex, Convective Weather and others leave their forecasts until morning.,.being discussed on UKWW also how divergent the models are, chiefly Euro4 and GFS. UKMO seems to spreading potential back further east (though still firing on all cylinders in the west still), while across NMM varieties we have mass outbreak in Ireland (NetWx NMM4) to a whopping storm across SE and less further West....how a forecaster starts to untangle that I don't know.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[Eye to the sky]

very true that actually, can see it very stormy in south, then weakening, then intensifying around Manchester northwards

the East Midlands haven't faired much better to be fair.Most storms develop just to the north of here over the Peak District or veer either side just like yesterday.Last good storm here was June 28th 2012.

[ChezWeather]

the East Midlands haven't faired much better to be fair.Most storms develop just to the north of here over the Peak District or veer either side just like yesterday.Last good storm here was June 28th 2012.

Hmm, 2013 was a very poor year here. But 2014 was excellent, we had 5 really good storms last year, including 2 that were likely supercells. 

[Paul Sherman]

Yh I get the synoptics Harry just wanted to know why that particular chart showed the risk of a tornado over the SE Tomorrow.

 

Hodographs across the SE Will be interesting for 18z to 21z tomorrow, will be interesting to see how Estofex update in a few hours time because they were going with a level 2 over Northern France for surface based supercells which were expected to congeal into an MCS Drifting north into the SE & Southern Counties, lets see how they change their day 1.

[Nick F]

I'm still finding it difficult to put too much detail on Friday night's storm potential, with such varied model guidance still on the 12z runs.

 

12z ECM and 12z UKMO (meso) spreading heavy rain/ embedded storms NE from SW England and Wales with some intense downpours developing across N Midlands north across N England, N Wales and N Ireland then eventually Scotland Saturday morning, SE England and E England escaping the rain/storms

 

GFS on the other hand, showing a more general risk of storms moving NE across S England, the Midlands and Wales tomorrow night, before continuing NE across other areas, highest CAPE in early hours of Sat towards SE UK.

 

NMM kinda in between Euros and GFS, with emphasis of heaviest precip across EIRE/N Ireland, Wales and NW England, though large amounts of CAPE over SE England and E Anglia.

 

In the end, will be a case of nowcasting, as usual ...

[Harry]

Yh I get the synoptics Harry just wanted to know why that particular chart showed the risk of a tornado over the SE Tomorrow.

Hodographs across the SE Will be interesting for 18z to 21z tomorrow, will be interesting to see how Estofex update in a few hours time because they were going with a level 2 over Northern France for surface based supercells which were expected to congeal into an MCS Drifting north into the SE & Southern Counties, lets see how they change their day 1.

Just remarked on that above...Wouldn't at all be surprised if Estofex, Convective Weather and others leave their forecasts until morning.,.being discussed on UKWW also how divergent the models are, chiefly Euro4 and GFS. UKMO seems to spreading potential back further east (though still firing on all cylinders in the west still), while across NMM varieties we have mass outbreak in Ireland (NetWx NMM4) to a whopping storm across SE and less further West (NMM5)....how a forecaster starts to untangle that I don't know. Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

[Eye to the sky]

Hmm, 2013 was a very poor year here. But 2014 was excellent, we had 5 really good storms last year, including 2 that were likely supercells.

Just goes to show what 15 miles or so can do to weather events!!Like yesterday, didn't you have a decent storm,when all I got was 3 distant rumbles and 30 seconds of heavy rain?.

[tomp456]

Latest Beeb forecast is going with storms west of IOW, and sod all east of there. 

Edited July 2, 2015 by tomp456

[Hodgheg]

Im happy that I'm at work tomorrow, will save me from refreshing the forum and radar all day!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That chart re tornados also shows some serious mostiure being transferred across from the continent to.

[Raidan]

I'm tired in two ways one as been a work all day and the other of no storms happening here.

I'm practically at that point where I'm just going to give up on thunderstorms.

Little USA get a good few year in year out the north does ok but southwest England sees very little or most of the time nothing.

Don't see the point anymore in taking a interest when the outcome is always the same.

Plume in plume out this neck of the woods sees nothing

I work hard week in week out and do a lot of overtime think it's time to treat myself and head off to the US or make my dream a reality and go to Venezuela to witness the Catatumbo.

Sorry for the negative post but I'm just annoyed that I have a big interest in storms but I never get to see one just get to read what other parts of the UK have had.

Don't get me wrong it's cool that others with the same interest have had or is witnessing a good storm.

But when nothing happens here you can understand my frustration.

Me and others seem to be in the same boat year in year out and maybe I'm not the only one that's on the verge of saying that's it I give up.

That said I do wish good luck to everyone during this summer hope you get some good storms just hope us peeps who miss out very often can get something to.

[ChezWeather]

Just goes to show what 15 miles or so can do to weather events!!Like yesterday, didn't you have a decent storm,when all I got was 3 distant rumbles and 30 seconds of heavy rain?.

We had a nice little storm yesterday, gave out at least 10/15 strikes and lots of thunder. Last year was great though, added some radar grabs that i saved. 

[Paul]

Blah blah blah

 

Stop whining - it's a storm risk, they're never going to affect everyone, even within a risk area and expecting them to do so is never, ever going to work!

 

Beyond that, if you really feel the need to have a moan, don't ruin the storm discussion thread with it, head over to the dedicated whiners thread and fill your boots over there..

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

As for tomorrow night, definitely looks like a chance of another bit of the storm cherry. As others have said though, it'll be down to radar watching to nail down the details.

 

[mhielte]

Interesting graphic from UKMO regarding tomorrow night / Saturday morning, Plenty of cape for it to drift into 

They are also now showing potential on Sunday afternoon

Positive Lifted Index inland? That's not good, right? I know other parameters are in play but I thought a negative LI was important?

[Biggin]

Live stream from Arnhem, Netherlands - right in the thick of that huge storm

Good grief - that is a hell of a lot of lightning!

https://webcam.nl/a325_gelredome/

Still going

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm tired in two ways one as been a work all day and the other of no storms happening here.

I'm practically at that point where I'm just going to give up on thunderstorms.

Little USA get a good few year in year out the north does ok but southwest England sees very little or most of the time nothing.

Don't see the point anymore in taking a interest when the outcome is always the same.

Plume in plume out this neck of the woods sees nothing

I work hard week in week out and do a lot of overtime think it's time to treat myself and head off to the US or make my dream a reality and go to Venezuela to witness the Catatumbo.

Sorry for the negative post but I'm just annoyed that I have a big interest in storms but I never get to see one just get to read what other parts of the UK have had.

Don't get me wrong it's cool that others with the same interest have had or is witnessing a good storm.

But when nothing happens here you can understand my frustration.

Me and others seem to be in the same boat year in year out and maybe I'm not the only one that's on the verge of saying that's it I give up.

That said I do wish good luck to everyone during this summer hope you get some good storms just hope us peeps who miss out very often can get something to.

I'll try typing this again and hopefully my phone won't crash on the fourth paragraph!

Was going to suggest u jump in the car tomorrow after work and head over near Reading with your camera(s) in tow.

Sit tight there and watch developments on radar.

Position yourself near an arterial route like the M4 - to give yourself easy travel option to the east or west.

Basically this will improve your odds of seeing what could potentially be an incredible night of storm activity.

Worst case scenario - it costs you a small amount in fuel and you see nothing.

Best case scenario - well you know the score... ;-)

[ancientsolar]

All I need is One  small Thunderstorm from SE Wales.. to add to my collection, that'll be my summer storm for 2015 ! 

But by no means will I rely on it, I know from vast experience, that ex-hurricanes often bring a lot of thundery weather in August-October.. and between 
December and March there is often thundery downpours with hailstorms, which can be very very impressive! Iv'e heard of reports of mini tornadoes hitting in such month.. 

But anyway, here's hoping that tomorrow is the day for a little or big storm ~ Cameras are ready waiting service!

[Evening thunder]

12z ECM and 12z UKMO (meso) spreading heavy rain/ embedded storms NE from SW England and Wales with some intense downpours developing across N Midlands north across N England, N Wales and N Ireland then eventually Scotland Saturday morning, SE England and E England escaping the rain/storms

 

From what I can see on Wunderground and also the 'Home and Dry' app which both have ECM charts, unless I'm mistaken the ECM does break out precip/storms for most of the SE with only perhaps Kent and the far east of east Anglia so I thought it was a relatively positive run

 

 

Little USA get a good few year in year out the north does ok but southwest England sees very little or most of the time nothing.

You've probably been unlicky as the SW has had more than Egham recently, I know Bristol had a good thunderstorm from a plume in 2013, my location did well in 2014 (even if I unfortunately was away for half the storms), though it can often be frustrating when they go east or things develop north of us.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Evening thunder