Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[fazer76]

Yesterday severe storm that hit North Yorkshire

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRT-u3pMAes

Can't believe there wasn't a single profanity heard...holes in the lawn? Some storm that.

Look's uninspiring for those further south and east tomorrow eve, i have to say.

 

A messy situation though, i'll be very susprised if it looks like that at 10pm tomorrow.

 

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We won't know until dare I say tomorrow pm.

[Cableguy]

Anybody know what's happened with the Setup for tomorrow night pointing to the SE missing out again?

[StormChaseUK]

BBC seem to go with storms over Wales/Midlands tomorrow evening. 

Edited July 2, 2015 by StormChaseUK

[matt_in_dudley]

BBC seem to go with storms over Wales/Midlands tomorrow evening. 

 

Haha! I wont hold my breath!

[Harry]

Anybody know what's happened with the Setup for tomorrow night pointing to the SE missing out again?

Basically, what was a warm front with a trough and cold front tucked neatly behind moving in from the south, is now looking more like an occluded front moving in from the SW. All the while, the reincursion of high humidity and instability across the SE goes without trigger...that's according to an increasing number of models, but some still favouring original outcome.

Areas where high instability is present will get nothing, whereas other areas will get rip roaring storms.

Models last night and this morning in contrast were much better for the SE.

In fact, NMM 5KM 12z still looking very good

Edited July 2, 2015 by Harry

[Wilxy]

BBC seem to go with storms over Wales/Midlands tomorrow evening. 

 

Fair enough but there is one thing I don't understand what is the trigger because the energy is modelled further SE?

[Eye to the sky]

Squall line was nothing impressive here,though the temperature did drop from 22 to 16 degrees,dull and damp now and feeling rather cool.

[Jordan Naylor]

Looking at BBC's animation it looks like a supercell as wide as half the country will cross over the North West/Lancashire tomorrow night. I wonder how likely that is...

[Paul90]

spotted this on u tube, the north west england storm filmed from the peak district, incredible to think i was under that, rivals a midwest supercell for amount of lightning, and it is not timelasped 

 

Was amazing.

 

Lets have some more.

[iand61]

Looking at BBC's animation it looks like a supercell as wide as half the country will cross over the North West/Lancashire tomorrow night. I wonder how likely that is...

Unlikely I'd have thought but in this week of strange weather, always a chance.

[Cableguy]

Basically, what was a warm front with a trough and cold front tucked neatly behind moving in from the south, is now looking more like an occluded front moving in from the SW. All the while, the reincursion of high humidity and instability across the SE goes without trigger...that's according to an increasing number of models, but some still favouring original outcome.

Areas where high instability is present will get nothing, whereas other areas will get rip roaring storms.

Models last night and this morning in contrast were much better for the SE.

In fact, NMM 5KM 12z still looking very good

Thank you for the reply, it will be a shame if we miss out but what will be will be and somebody may get lucky

[andymusic]

BBC seem to go with storms over Wales/Midlands tomorrow evening. 

 

BRING IT ON - a little storm starved in Wales so far this year - could do with a little action - we shall see

[The PIT]

Not expecting anything here maybe the odd rumble from a decaying storm Early Saturday morning but by then the energy is transferring away into the North sea. All can change tomorrow but I favor the SE to get all the action.  Rainfall generally doesn't look all that impressive as well.

[Alex95]

Torrential rain in Newcastle, the showers are really intensifying as they reach the North East coast. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of rogue lightning strikes (and there have been a couple in North Yorkshire).

[The PIT]

Was amazing.

 

Lets have some more.

My next door neighbor watched it last night but forgot to tell me.

[Kookylou]

BRING IT ON - a little storm starved in Wales so far this year - could do with a little action - we shall see

Agreed!!!

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Those in the SE don't give up hope yet. BBC Points West weatherman Ian Fergusson just mentioned storms could come up from France tomorrow night along with what's expected ahead of the occluded front further west.

Gonna be all on the night as it so often is with thunderstorms.

[davechesh]

view from Osgodby under the Selby cell as it whipped up this aft

[Hirudine]

Yesterday severe storm that hit North Yorkshire

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRT-u3pMAes

 

 

 Gobsmacked!

[ChezWeather]

UKMO Going for a massive amount of previp over the west, NMM and GFS have it moving further south and east.

 

All can change yet folks 

Edited July 2, 2015 by ChezWeather

[richep]

I wouldnt be surprised at all if it went south east. Bbc points West have a habit of over dramatising such events. Hopefully their right this time though

[davechesh]

Backside view of the North Yorks Hailstone machine as it grew departing Leeds last night

 

 

[AWD]

12z EURO4 going with the Meto projections re tomorrow evening;

[davechesh]

and a sneaky peek at the tops through the cloud

[PolarWarsaw]

12z EURO4 going with the Meto projections re tomorrow evening;

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Blimey, marginally too far west for here again! It's like Storms are playing 'escape' Staffs this week. Let's see what happens at the time ay.