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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

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After what was a memorable day for many yesterday with record breaking heat and thunderstorms, what do the next few days have in store from a convective standpoint. Continue your discussions and reports in here.

 

Old thread here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83457-storm-convective-discussion-spanish-plume-300615-onwards/

 

If you have still not seen that elusive storm since last July you are always welcome in here to discuss your woes.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/

 

If you want to have a moan about the fact your storm didn't turn up, why do ????? always get all the storms or post details of the fact nothing is happening over your house then please feel free to post in our new dedicated moaning thread:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

Day 2 of this plume produced for a number of people, especially for the northern half of the UK with parts of the NE seeing possibly more than one supercell yesterday afternoon. There are still more opportunities today and then more especially later tomorrow when we see another round of big thunderstorms forecast.

 

Nick's forecast from yesterday (covering today also) can be found here:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

 

 

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Look at those beauties in France. I hope the channel doesn't kill them.

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Shizzle moving up from France. Any lighting detected ?

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At the very least we look due for a fair drop of rain down here - much needed

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We got our thunderstorm about 2am this morning or just after - lasted about 30-45mins I would say. Pretty good lightning, rain & squally winds with it. Others have photos/footage on line somewhere of the lightning. Suggestions it will actually be warmer in Aberdeen today & a repeat performance this evening. 

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To start this off the most westerly storm looks to have decayed be a nice rash of sferics from west to east heading northwards.

 

The main cell of which with the best lightning frequency is heading towards London.

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The developing area of PPN to my south is something I am watching, that has rapidly formed in the past 30 minutes from nothing to heavy showers. What we all need is a lot of surface based and mid level based convection rushing across the channel to head for the south coast. No charts are showing this unfortunately. I think we'd need to see some real corkers in France if the PPN to the south is to continue thundery as it reaches the south coast.

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The developing area of PPN to my south is something I am watching, that has rapidly formed in the past 30 minutes from nothing to heavy showers. What we all need is a lot of surface based and mid level based convection rushing across the channel to head for the south coast. No charts are showing this unfortunately. I think we'd need to see some real corkers in France if the PPN to the south is to continue thundery as it reaches the south coast.

I think that's inevitable. BBC forecasts only going for the odd bit of thundery rain in this mix.

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Going to take this with a few shovels of salt

I think any storms the channel will kill off unless they head towards Kent and miss West Sussex

But you never know

post-14846-0-60923600-1435819534_thumb.j

Channel is killing everything off! Been going on all morning - just look on rain radar. Why, why, WHY!?

Typical lol

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Thunder potential for tomorrow night is slowly diminishing for the West with more emphasis being put on the east

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Thunder potential for tomorrow night is slowly diminishing for the West with more emphasis being put on the east

Where do you see this?  :cc_confused:

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Channel is killing everything off! Been going on all morning - just look on rain radar. Why, why, WHY!?

And yet the North Sea doesn't. Neither does the Irish Sea.

How maddening is that?

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Where do you see this?  :cc_confused:

 

Latest charts show the main risk to have moved to the East of the Isle of Wight

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Can't remember if you had to experience an overhead storm or what, in order to vacate the NSC. I didn't get an overhead, but saw a lot of strikes to my East and North East as the Shropshire storm developed and moved north into Cheshire. Then saw strikes and heard thunder from the West as a short lived storm sprang to life and passed closeish by me. It was literally a case (at one point) of strikes to the left of me, rumbles to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with Moon!

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Encouraging Estofex has issued an early Lvl 2 for W Belgium and NW France...with usual caveats applying insofar as they appear somewhat dubious as to what may develop.

18z WRF-NMM very pleasing to the eye, showing high MUCAPE and breaking out storms. Instability only here for a few hours however so very narrow window of opportunity!

GFS shows modest SBCAPE and I assume MUCAPE and does break out storms through the night, keen however to keep the heaviest of these further east.

post-3790-0-94345500-1435820418_thumb.jp

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post-3790-0-44934200-1435820439_thumb.jp

post-3790-0-90859200-1435820448_thumb.jp

post-3790-0-35927100-1435820469_thumb.jp

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Latest charts show the main risk to have moved to the East of the Isle of Wight

Not on the NMM. Mainly shows risk to the west with widespread showers/thunderstorms.

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will it or won't it I think is the question this morning.. 

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This stuff heading up from France will be a Kent Clipper at best IMHO, it's veering off to the east now and the weaker parts to the west won't have the energy to make it across the channel.

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Personally, I've never had much of a feeling today's will.

While warm, the air feels much fresher and the sky too stable for me....happy to be proven wrong, but I can't see it.

My attention is on Friday night!

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Personally, I've never had much of a feeling today's will.

While warm, the air feels much fresher and the sky too stable for me....happy to be proven wrong, but I can't see it.

My attention is on Friday night!

 

 

I to can't see it, rain yes... Theres no energy?!

 

 

 

ukcapeli.png

ukcapeli.png

 

:whistling:

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You want to be down here on the east Sussex coast bud...it's pretty muggy with thundery looking skies...was bands of Ac Cas earlier which have thickened up substantially since and it's starting to look Rather dark and ominous in the Channel

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Higher level winds would suggest that storms move more Northerly than they are...  :rofl:  This is an import though.. 

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