Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Mesoscale]

Again after much anticipation,it looks increasingly like the next batch of storms is going to miss us,whats a man gotta do to get a flash and a bang round ere

100% agree! We need storms ASAP in here! 

[Methuselah]

Again after much anticipation,it looks increasingly like the next batch of storms is going to miss us,whats a man gotta do to get a flash and a bang round ere

Svalbaard (sp?) is looking good!

[tomp456]

Surprised we had a few rumbles of thunder today, there was a small storm that developed in the channel near Brighton. 

[Rain123]

Not much of note here today. I was eagerly watching the radar this morning, and it turned out to be light rain.

Shall I get anything on Friday night? If I do, then I will keep you updated on the storm & convective thread. 

 

*Thinks how he will miss the storm and convective thread when he isn't on it Friday night*

[Wet'n'Dry]

,whats a man gotta do to get a flash and a bang round ere

 

My wife seems to cope 

[tinybill]

i know its a  long  way off the  models are suggesting  silverstone    could be interesting  on Sunday for a  bit of the wet stuff!!!

[snowrye]

Blooming french,if theyre not blockading the ports,theyre stealing our thunder

[Daniel*]

i know its a  long  way off the  models are suggesting  silverstone    could be interesting  on Sunday for a  bit of the wet stuff!!!

Nice :and summery

I'm getting sick of the let downs last week I was really stoked the best storms tend to go un-forecasted therefore I'm overjoyed none of the main models are really going for anything of note there is a lot of instability later tomorrow although the time frame is not huge. I'm not very confident in regards to seeing anything.

[tomp456]

Blooming french,if theyre not blockading the ports,theyre stealing our thunder

Yep!! Gonna have to hate them as much as the Germans!!!!! 

[saint]

British weather is unpredictable... Surely we're all use to it by now? 

[Blessed Weather]

Last night I posted a very interesting NMM CAPE/LI chart for Saturday morning. Unfortunately this evening the NMM has down-graded it's "instability" for overnight Friday into Saturday. And whilst the NMM is still forecasting some heavy rain for the overnight period, the chance of thunder and lightning to accompany it has been greatly reduced.

 

Sat 03.00 Rain But no storm?  

 

Sat 05.00 Rain But no storm?

 

And then the final insult to our expectations is the Euro4 saying NO to any notable rain as well. If this forecast turns out to be correct I'll be mighty disappointed that with record breaking heat we've missed out on both rain and storms!!     

 

Euro4 No rain for our Region?? Mid-night 03.00 06.00

 

[Daniel*]

What happened there. Looks fabulous BW seriously I think NMM has lost it.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Daniel*

[seaside 60]

Maybe this pattern and air mass just dont support storms.

Now ask why, because its hot enough and humid enough, but something aint right for here and to be honest I cant even see us getting much rain sat am.

[nicol@]

Today in the far east of London we had a distant rumble of Thunder, a couple of showers, lots of cloud and some (hot) sun this afternoon.

Here is a little spiral I spotted a couple of hours ago, maybe a old vapour trail?

(poor quality phone pic)

[Blessed Weather]

What happened there. Looks fabulous BW seriously I think NMM has lost it.

 

To be honest Dan, it's the rainfall need that is becoming the over-riding issue for me. My lawn is brown and Mrs Blessed's flower beds and pots are wilting  , and my 3 x 50 gallon water butts are now empty. So I'm really hoping NMM precipitation charts are correct.

 

The differences between NMM and Euro4 rainfall forecasts have been fascinating during this hot/stormy period. On 30th June I posted both models forecasts for that evening. NMM said heavy rain NW and none NE, Euro4 said heavy rain NE and none NW. Guess what? It persisted down in both NW and NE!! So a rather poor performance from both for 12 hours out!! So we will see which model is correct this time around!!

[tomp456]

10pm Beeb forecast shows all storms IOW westwards heading north.

[Captain Shortwave]

So we have a bit of a mess for tomorrow, it looks mostly dry and sunny for most of the day with temperatures in the mid-twenties inland, cooler and around the coasts.

27/28C possible with the mid twenties possible widely. This could change in relation to ho the plume manages to force itself towards us, a more potent solution could yield a 30C in London for example.

 

Overnight, major uncertainty on whether we can get storms brewing over France to push over us, the main area of rain source from the Bay of Biscay will miss us to the west so we require a little luck I feel.

Saturday and Sunday, after any frontal rain clears it should be a mix a sunshine and a few heavy showers (these could be thundery with temperatures in the mid to high twenties on both days), still uncertainty on how high temperature could be on Saturday, 30C still possible.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A lot of tomorrow's storms will balance on what temps we get in the region

[Daniel*]

To be honest Dan, it's the rainfall need that is becoming the over-riding issue for me. My lawn is brown and Mrs Blessed's flower beds and pots are wilting , and my 3 x 50 gallon water butts are now empty. So I'm really hoping NMM precipitation charts are correct.

The differences between NMM and Euro4 rainfall forecasts have been fascinating during this hot/stormy period. On 30th June I posted both models forecasts for that evening. NMM said heavy rain NW and none NE, Euro4 said heavy rain NE and none NW. Guess what? It persisted down in both NW and NE!! So a rather poor performance from both for 12 hours out!! So we will see which model is correct this time around!!

Indeed drought like conditions following a dry winter has done no good. The reservoirs must be under some pressure exasperated by this 'heatwave' my grape vine is loving it at least. IMBY lawn is a straw yellow I had a walk through the local woodland grasslands and it's like being in the African Savannah.

Totally parched in my experience both are good and bad I was impressed with NMM on being good at handing whereabouts of frontal systems yielding rain/snow in winter but it is not so chirpy with convection the E4 is decent but not amazing.

The Met Office are lucky to have such great date at their disposal which we the public have no access to.These models use all the variables to decipher what potentially could arise really what you see is a throw at the dice in it verifying in terms of forecasting storms. Anyway it is a muggy night bearable unlike yesterday.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

This is uplifting a level 2 has been issued by Estofex wee area along East Sussex coastline and 5-10 or so miles inland increased chance of severe storms in area circled red while the entire region is under a level less so I infer imports could be packing a punch. Even the change of a low category Tornado so I've heard.

Hope my Geography is correct -

Major towns under L2:

Hastings, Lewes, Eastbourne

Edited July 2, 2015 by Daniel*

[essexweather]

Morning! Should be a interesting night ahead, lets get temperatures as high as possible today to help break some of the cap.

 

Here are the latest thoughts from this end for Essex / SE etc: http://essexweather.weebly.com/blog/-possible-thunderstorms-overnight

[Biggin]

Clear blue sky here, please let the storm gods be on our side for once later

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Uh oh.. 

 

[Blessed Weather]

A beautiful summer's day in prospect. Even though this morning's NMM has now fallen into line with Euro4 (i.e. both now say all the action will be to our West), this lovely weather has got to put a smile on the face!   (Dan - your comment last night about NMM losing the plot has just gathered more evidence!).

 

The BBC Look East forecast has just said "a very low chance of a thunderstorm" for here, and that "any storms will be very isolated". Oh well, I'll maintain a sliver of hope then!!

[alexisj9]

Don't worry to much about the cloud it is all various forms of cumulus, it's looking very good for later.