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Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon

is there any more thunder tonight? It is so humid and I hate this stickiness. 

 

I think the main event is over for tonight. Just leave a window open and let any rain noise lull you to sleep  :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Pfft, the North Sea claims yet another victim  :nonono: All I can look forward to is some light rain judging by the radar. So the forecast of rain is in fact reasonably correct  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Well I would guess storm lovers in Kent and Sussex are rather pleased with today's events. But I also suspect there are even more people who are pretty disappointed with today - and I'm in the disappointed camp. One distant flash, a couple of rumbles of thunder and 10 minutes of heavy-ish rain.  :(

 

And, in my opinion, the last 24 hours have also shown that when it comes to forecasting timing, placement and severity of thunderstorms, the Met Office are not a lot better at it than us amateurs with our publicly available model output!!  

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Is it just me or has the low moved east in stead of north east, it looks to be in france now, it was in biscay. I'm probably seeing it wrong but if not that is why the forecast was wrong, cause the models, all of them got it wrong again. 

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Staplecross, East Sussex / Kent borders. 100m ASL.
  • Location: Staplecross, East Sussex / Kent borders. 100m ASL.

Quite agree BW. If the Met Office had forecast the opposite of what they predicted, they'd have been a lot nearer to the actual weather. 

 

Thanks to all the amateur forecasters on here...you have been great. Cheaper than the MetO too  :diablo:

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Well I would guess storm lovers in Kent and Sussex are rather pleased with today's events. But I also suspect there are even more people who are pretty disappointed with today - and I'm in the disappointed camp. One distant flash, a couple of rumbles of thunder and 10 minutes of heavy-ish rain.  :(

 

And, in my opinion, the last 24 hours have also shown that when it comes to forecasting timing, placement and severity of thunderstorms, the Met Office are not a lot better at it than us amateurs with our publicly available model output!!  

 

I think that's slightly unfair.

 

The Met Office went for thundery rain, which is, of course, exactly what has happened. The Met Office are the responsible agency for our welfare when it comes to exceptional weather events. Whilst us amateurs can call a busted flush (and get it wrong 90% of the time) or some extreme weather event (and get it wrong 90% of the time) nominally *because* we're amateurs everyone simple forgets about and moves on, the Met Office must call extreme weather as they see it with the proviso that they can't overcook forecasts as it would cost other agencies a fortune in preperation. As you say, however, *any* convective forecast by it's very nature has to include a very wide area in scope; that's without considering difficulties of the very many convective parameters, local orography etc etc.

 

Maybe we should do an experiment and see if us amateurs can call it right for our own location, record the forecast, record the result and actually get some stats? It'd be an interesting exercise, I reckon.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Been nice seeing and hearing some fantastic thunder and lightning today,been a long time,but i cant hide my disappointment at missing out this evening,how id love to reel that beast in from holland and Belgium,think thats it for tonight if im honest,but you never know

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Just seen that on blitzortung,have i spoke too soon

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Is it just me or has the low moved east in stead of north east, it looks to be in france now, it was in biscay. I'm probably seeing it wrong but if not that is why the forecast was wrong, cause the models, all of them got it wrong again. 

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

 

You may have a point alexis. I posted this graphic from the Met Office two days ago and it had a flabby Low over the south of the UK:

 

Graphic for Thurs post-20040-0-67988800-1439501139_thumb.j

 

But clearly your satellite shot from this evening shows a more intense Low swirling in Biscay and moving into France:

 

Satellite Thurs 21.00 post-20040-0-25929100-1439501773_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Theres a few strikes now in st-valery-sur-somme,cmon channel do the decent thing and spark some energy into it

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Just seen that on blitzortung,have i spoke too soon

 

It looks more like the Rouen side, actually: also, it's just set sail, so here's hoping! new cells appear to still be firing up

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock

Oh well. At least my garden will look greener tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

I think that's slightly unfair.

 

The Met Office went for thundery rain, which is, of course, exactly what has happened. The Met Office are the responsible agency for our welfare when it comes to exceptional weather events. Whilst us amateurs can call a busted flush (and get it wrong 90% of the time) or some extreme weather event (and get it wrong 90% of the time) nominally *because* we're amateurs everyone simple forgets about and moves on, the Met Office must call extreme weather as they see it with the proviso that they can't overcook forecasts as it would cost other agencies a fortune in preperation. As you say, however, *any* convective forecast by it's very nature has to include a very wide area in scope; that's without considering difficulties of the very many convective parameters, local orography etc etc.

 

Maybe we should do an experiment and see if us amateurs can call it right for our own location, record the forecast, record the result and actually get some stats? It'd be an interesting exercise, I reckon.

 

Hi VP - I actually think the Met Office are a fantastic organisation and do Britain proud. It's just by their own admission, the forecasting of the 'where and when' of thunderstorms is very difficult and I just felt that on this occasion they weren't that much more accurate than some of the very knowledgeable amateurs who post on these Forums.  

 

BTW - I've very much enjoyed your posts today - thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border

I agree with the fact that it could've been so much better yesterday. But we had a few rumbles, so better than some places. Looks like rain incoming this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Beautiful sunny skies, feeling lovely and fresh.

Lol maybe not, think I might be fibbing lol.....

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Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border

The drizzy mist is like fog here - I'd think it was November looking outside if it wasn't for the fact that it's 18.c in the morning!!

Yep, it was the same here, so perhaps it has moved up to you now. It has cleared here now.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Messy day ahead and the Met Off Fax chart shows what needs to clear away east before things improve. Dull and drizzly here atm with 99% humidity and a temp of 18.6C. The local forecast is suggesting a few sunny spells later, which could trigger a heavy shower as the last cold front clears through.

 

post-20040-0-54449300-1439540374_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border

It's started to drizzle here.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Messy day ahead and the Met Off Fax chart shows what needs to clear away east before things improve. Dull and drizzly here atm with 99% humidity and a temp of 18.6C. The local forecast is suggesting a few sunny spells later, which could trigger a heavy shower as the last cold front clears through.

 

attachicon.gifMetOff Fax Chart 14Aug.gif

So the low did make it up to us, stuck right over us but it's not where any model put it till later on, wasn't it meant to be east of scotland by now. So anyone blaming the met is just being silly, this is the complication that small features from the south alway seem to cause, we should be used to it by now rather than complaining about it.

 

It looks like things could develop today from that chart, I'll be watching out incase. 

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