Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Dami]

got some heavy showers seemly out of no where pop up by me.

[loopydreamer]

I reckon the storms are coming a bit later than planned ... give it another hour and we might see more potential

[VillagePlank]

I reckon the storms are coming a bit later than planned ... give it another hour and we might see more potential

 

I've sat down, smoked a cigarette, had a coffee, taken the time out and done a much more formal analysis of the trajectory of the cells around today,

 

 

I have to say, I'm quietly confident.

[scotteboi]

I've sat down, smoked a cigarette, had a coffee, taken the time out and done a much more formal analysis of the trajectory of the cells around today,

 

analysis.png

 

I have to say, I'm quietly confident.

Quality

[nicol@]

Some short intense showers popped up near Milton Keynes.

Radar shows them looking stormy, but we still have a big blanket of cloud, so I can't tell.

[Dami]

Some short intense showers popped up near Milton Keynes.

Radar shows them looking stormy, but we still have a big blanket of cloud, so I can't tell.

Yep, Hubs said he had heavy rain driving home, but it just about missed me in bedford.

[VillagePlank]

Looks less and less likely, now,

 

[Dami]

Looks less and less likely, now,

 

medway.png

I wouldn't take those symbols as gospel.   

[10 Days Away]

Thunder Dymchurch !

[loopydreamer]

Looks less and less likely, now,

 

medway.png

I preferred your previous post

[davehowe]

thunder margate.

[Paul Ashford]

Thunder Ashford, Kent.

[Dami]

A few drops of rain, Bedford, Bedfordshire.

 

go us.

[Weathizard]

Gone extremely dark here and the seagulls are making a hell of a noise! Normally a sign of incoming storms.

[nicol@]

A few drops of rain, Bedford, Bedfordshire.

 

go us.

Mighty statements then that? Lol

[loopydreamer]

Getting darker here

[VillagePlank]

I'm slightly more interested, now.

 

Here's the last 4 radar frames,

 

 

Whilst we expected it to saunter up to the North Sea, party without us, then go whimpering onto Scandanavia, it's doing something altogether more interesting; possibly because of outflow boundaries.

 

Effectively, outflow boundaries come out of intense storms and splatter randomly all around the cell; rather like dropping water all in one big splat, but instead we are talking cold air, with some continuous life. What this does is to increase the lapse rate around the cell because the surface is now a lot colder than higher up giving a higher potential for convection to get going, and get going strong

 

If you look at the frames above, it looks like the outflow boundary has spread out to the storms SW as it passes near Kent. It shows to the SW because whilst, essentially, where they go is 360deg with the strength of the outflow essentially random, the strongest portions do tend to follow the surface wind for reasonably obvious reasons. And that's what appears to be going on here; watch the radar spread out to the SW of the storm through frames 3 and 4.

 

Might still be in with a chance, here; well, at least of getting wet, not sure about sferics. Whilst this may just clip East Kent, it's a welcome addition since any extra instability means a greater chance of home grown ones forming and of late night cells making the cold trip across the channel.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[VillagePlank]

Also, if you look at the bottom of the frame, some rain enters the channel between Le Havre and Rouen, and then swiftly does a left turn. Amazing.

[VillagePlank]

One last thing - I've got to cook this kid's dinner - is that the whole SE is under the influence of that cell from near Belgium. Very clear to see using the IR satellite pictures.

 

 

Anywhere, anytime, really, now : but more likely East and North of SE region; so East Kent, North Kent, Essex etc - but there's no way on Mother Earth I would rule out anywhere in the SE: particular local orographic features could be the difference between rain and thunder this evening.

 

[Wivenswold]

A few rumbles in the distance here. Looking like a beauty though. 

[VillagePlank]

Forgetting about the blob from Belgium,

 

france.png

 

The circle looks promising, the square less so.

 

Square now looks promising, circle less so.

[frozencanals]

the rain is back here in Southend, no sign of thunder and lightening though....

 

FC

[VillagePlank]

Rain has made landfall and is spreading out West into the MetO amber warning area; it's got lightning associated with it, too

 

 

Good luck fellow South Easterners!

 

Happy storm hunting

 

[Essexgooner]

Raining now here in Barling, no sign of any thunder and lightening though  

[VillagePlank]

Stuff out of Paris looks very promising, too - almost within UK radar.