Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Methuselah]

The GFS has consistently been showing a finger of heavy rain moving up over south east England East Anglia during the morning and afternoon tomorrow. The 6z has further upgraded this and moved it a little further west. Any idea why this hasn't been mentioned on forecasts as it looks like writing off most of tomorrow for outdoor activities?

It has been. The Beeb mentioned it, yesterday - but as only a small chance.

[nicol@]

On the 3rd pic, is that  a funnel cloud trying to form?

That is what I wondered. Can you see the swirl lines running across the cloud down to the lower part?

[saint]

Interesting to note that places further south reporting that they did not hear much thunder last night, but by the time it reached this area, it was some of the loudest thunder I've ever heard... However, it did feel like we had quite a few more Cloud-Ground strikes here.

 

Brilliant night!

Edited July 4, 2015 by saint

[lassie23]

The wind is from the SW now but it is still hot and humid, 30c at the moment. I literally woke up with my pillow stuck to my head. I blame the heatwave for getting me addicted to Walls Soft Scoop Vanilla Ice Cream. If it doesn't cool down soon, I am going to end up the size of the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. As predicted, my melons have doubled in size in this heat.

 

Here is an explanation for the cause of the 'European Heatwave.' I blame El Nino personally.   http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33369931

Edited July 4, 2015 by lassie23

[NO LONGER POSTING]

06z is nice..

[Wet'n'Dry]

That was a belter last night!!

Somewhere back through these pages I mentioned (several times) that it was going to be a fail in the far SW and that turned out to be correct.

I briefly read the convective and regional forums and there are plenty of people who had got all hyped up then got nothing so now moaning!!

 

I was surprised at what we got to be honest, but had it arrived during the day it wouldn't have been as spectacular as for some reason the thunder was

extremely muted and the lighting was mostly intra-cloud.

 

Anyway, here's to the next one and good luck to one and all.

 

Currently 31.2°c here with humidity at 43% and a nice warm but refreshing breeze.

[Blessed Weather]

Ah, that's better! I've just had a nice doze in the garden and caught up with some lost sleep from storm watching last night! Superb day here with temp currently 27.5C and humidity 43%. A lovely breeze blowing to cool you off.

 

I wonder how many people are planning a BBQ for tomorrow thinking it will be the same? The Fax charts show a front sliding up the North Sea just off the coast and the models suggest rain will spoil any outdoor plans, particularly for the east of our patch.

 

NMM Sun 16.00   Euro4 Sun 15.00

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Ah, that's better! I've just had a nice doze in the garden and caught up with some lost sleep from storm watching last night! Superb day here with temp currently 27.5C and humidity 43%. A lovely breeze blowing to cool you off.

 

I wonder how many people are planning a BBQ for tomorrow thinking it will be the same? The Fax charts show a front sliding up the North Sea just off the coast and the models suggest rain will spoil any outdoor plans, particularly for the east of our patch.

 

NMM Sun 16.00 NMM Sun05Jul 16.00.png  Euro4 Sun 15.00 Euro4 Sun05Jul 15.00.gif

Again such massive model difference at short range! NMM wants to start thunderstorms firing around the iow and push north east by the time it reaches London it's looking tasty suggesting explosive development and around lunch time.

Euro4 having non of it and channel hogging up into Kent maybe Norfolk

GFS plasters all of us

[scientist_uk]

woke up this morning feeling quite satisfied, no storm directly overhead but the consistancy of the lightning show was immense.  Also which seemed unusual was how lovely and fresh it felt.  Temp topped at around 28c here now slowly falling, personally ill be glad to see an end to the heat and looking forward to low twenty temperatures as long as we dont fall back into those pesky north westerlies. Had the heat and the storms I cant complain, all we need now is a Tornado

Edited July 4, 2015 by scientist_uk

[stainesbloke]

After the fun and games last night, today has been a lovely day. Mainly sunny, a fresh breeze and highs of 27C here, perfect. Really hope this warm weather lasts now til the end of summer with more storms thrown in. Would be so depressing to go back to chilly NW rubbish!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Convective thread has more info

[Captain Shortwave]

How do you follow up a stunning night of thundery activity? A mostly sunny day with a high of 28c. Fantastic

[alexisj9]

How do you follow up a stunning night of thundery activity? A mostly sunny day with a high of 28c. Fantastic

I've had a sunny day high 23, quite breezy which make the 75% humidity only noticeable if your in doors, yep it a nice day out. So naturally me and the kids spent it at the park with a  picnic. 

 

Just spotted talk of another round of storms tomorrow, I wonder if these ones will happen, I know the humidity is still up here. 

Edited July 4, 2015 by alexisj9

[clark3r]

Cooling trend for us in the next few days, hoping for a return to very warm hot weather this month

[Blessed Weather]

Again such massive model difference at short range! NMM wants to start thunderstorms firing around the iow and push north east by the time it reaches London it's looking tasty suggesting explosive development and around lunch time.

Euro4 having non of it and channel hogging up into Kent maybe Norfolk

GFS plasters all of us

 

I totally agree with your comment about the massive differences between the high res models, particularly at such short range over the last few days. They don't seem to be able to predict the outcome from these hot, humid and unstable weather conditions. But then in fairness, there are so many variables at play to trigger thunder storms maybe we should cut them some slack! 

 

Both NMM and Euro4 were very downbeat about last night for our area, but in the end something popped and it kicked off big time!! Anyway, as always, we will find out tomorrow which forecast is right! To bbq or not to bbq, that is the question. (I'm sure Shakespeare said that).    

[tinybill]

I totally agree with your comment about the massive differences between the high res models, particularly at such short range over the last few days. They don't seem to be able to predict the outcome from these hot, humid and unstable weather conditions. But then in fairness, there are so many variables at play to trigger thunder storms maybe we should cut them some slack! 

 

Both NMM and Euro4 were very downbeat about last night for our area, but in the end something popped and it kicked off big time!! Anyway, as always, we will find out tomorrow which forecast is right! To bbq or not to bbq, that is the question. (I'm sure Shakespeare said that).    

cant wait for siverstone  on Sunday  could be a interesting race if the rain   arr during  the race

[Captain Shortwave]

The forecast rainfall on the GFS and NMM seems to correlate to just heavy frontal rain, the area of highest instability seems to be behind the cold front where a showery westerly flow should push showers eastwards from the Atlantic. Not holding out much hope as the showery flow gets cut off behind the front by the next Azores ridge pushing up from the south west. Still we will see tomorrow though, precipitation and temperature predictions are all over the shot. 

 

Finally edited my signature

Edited July 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Biggin]

Rash of showers heading towards SE corner Edit ( now intensifying)  http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Lightning breaking out too.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Biggin

[tinybill]

if  the radar right  things will be great watching at silverstone later i cant wait!!!

[k66yla]

Just been out with the dogs and thought I heard a rumble of thunder in the distance. I'm probably just hearing things 

[Biggin]

Just been out with the dogs and thought I heard a rumble of thunder in the distance. I'm probably just hearing things 

Prob not hearing things Incoming

[tinybill]

Prob not hearing things Incoming

no  you did  not big thunder storms incoming from france should see some in kent any time  soon

[lassie23]

Just been out with the dogs and thought I heard a rumble of thunder in the distance. I'm probably just hearing things 

Lovely dog! There is some heavy rain around the SE today. Although it is warm and sunny here and still baking indoors. After today, it is time to say goodbye to the horrible humid air and hopefully it won't come back. By Wednesday, we will be  welcoming cool NW winds (Sorry Stainesbloke) *runs and hides again*

Edited July 5, 2015 by lassie23

[Biggin]

no  you did  not big thunder storms incoming from france should see some in kent any time  soon

Thats what I meant Bill  my post doesnt read right soz

[tinybill]

Thats what I meant Bill  my post doesnt read right soz

ok cant wait for silverstome later  if the storms get that far should be good watching!!