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Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford

Looks like a continuation of a NW/SE split in medium term which has been the story of the summer. Apart from last Friday and Sunday - where I live in Essex has been mostly settled and I can't remember any days with frontal rainfall other than them ones mentioned.

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I think we are stuck in the 2007-2009 summer pattern of the Jet Stream in the wrong position. 

 

I note that the United States are having a 40 degree heatwave and breaking their July records while in Rochdale it was only 7 degrees today! 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

I think we are stuck in the 2007-2009 summer pattern of the Jet Stream in the wrong position. 

 

I note that the United States are having a 40 degree heatwave and breaking their July records while in Rochdale it was only 7 degrees today! 

 

Interesting post, Yes i've noticed the same thing. Very interesting patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, But what comes next ? cheers .

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I assume the SST 's have helped knocks. Tbh, with a repetitive Scandi trough, had we seen a ridge to our west, it would have been even colder! (Think may and first part June)

 

Yes I'm sure the Atlantic cold anomaly must come into the mix vis NH atmospheric circulation along with the warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific, El Nino, etc, so it will be interesting to read subsequent papers on the subject. Along with any current musings from the experts of course. Just as matter of interest, en passant, I notice there is a huge positive SST anomaly of +5C NE of Iceland.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/#SSTA

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

GFS 12Z are encouraging for some fine weather over the next two weeks with above average temperatures. Not totally settled but much better than last nights GFS18Z

The questions is weather it will verify! 

The question is what part of the UK do you live in? I'm assuming the South and East as there are no above average temperatures forecast for the North and West?

 

Have you checked the latest GFS 6z and compared it to last night's GFS?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows the weather warming up through the weekend and next week across the southern half of the uk with some fine and sunny weather but some heavy and thundery showers dotted around too, at least it would feel like summer next week with milder nights and warmer days which is good news but still autumnal for n.Ireland and Scotland unfortunately. The weekend rain which the met office were earlier predicting to sweep east across the UK on Sunday doesn't do that on the 6z, instead it pushes north up the far western side of the uk and most of us have a fine and warm weekend bar the odd shower which is now how the MO see it too. Next Monday a cold front with a band of showery rain with a chance of thunder pushes east across England with fine and very warm weather ahead of it and its worth noting this run shows a vigorous depression to the west / northwest of the UK at the start of next week which thankfully starts to fill and drift away north with pressure rising nicely to the northeast and southwest.

Further into low res, high pressure builds in close to the south and settles the weather down across the south of the UK with long spells of sunshine and warm conditions, staying more changeable and cooler further n/nw. Not sure northern Britain will have a summer this year, lordy lordy it's been a dire spring and summer uuuup north but at least the south looks like seeing a return of warmer weather. :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

No comments on the Euro i see..

 

Tries to plume twice as per day 5..

 

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But fails.. 

 

Recm2402.gif

 

UKMO agrees..

 

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London

No comments on the Euro i see..

 

Tries to plume twice as per day 5..

 

Recm1201.gif

 

But fails.. 

 

Recm2402.gif

 

UKMO agrees..

 

Rukm1441.gif

 

 

Slowly slowly catch the monkey, these are decent flirts so there is a chance things will firm up in the direction of a plume

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Slowly slowly catch the monkey, these are decent flirts so there is a chance things will firm up in the direction of a plume

 

Perhaps. A weak plume in summer giving 25-26C though is as bad a toppler in winter that barely gives a decent frost.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

but those mini plumes have been on the charts for a while now, and were never expected to be anything other then transitory, so its hardly a case of 'failing' .

at least over the weekend the weathers going from cold unsettled to warmer unsettled. its a poor show when we are looking for an average day here and there ...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

at least over the weekend the weathers going from cold unsettled to warmer unsettled

Actually mushy the coming weekend doesn't look unsettled at all, for many of us it looks largely fine with sunny spells with just the chance of an isolated shower, Sunday looks best. :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Actually mushy the coming weekend doesn't look unsettled at all, for many of us it looks largely fine with sunny spells with just the chance of an isolated shower, Sunday looks best. :)

Then i think our understanding what unsettled means differs :p

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

I don't see any plumes, just temporary ridging ahead of the lows as they swing through. The things being called plumes only take the temperature back to just above average; that is not a hot plume of true Spanish origin, by any stretch of the word.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Then i think our understanding what unsettled means differs :p

Indeed, I don't think dry with sunny spells is unsettled. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Low pressure is really having a hard time pulling away to the NW on the latest gfs, and its the ever present heights around Greenland that are scuppering our chances of a more widespread pressure rise. A NW/SE split looks likely, warm in the SE, but unfortunately more misery for those in the NW.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Indeed, I don't think dry with sunny spells is unsettled. :)

 

It's definitely not just you, but can we give up with this petty stuff regarding local conditions. Everyone lives in different parts of the UK, if someone says it's going to be unsettled, then it's probably safe to assume they mean in their locality, it really adds nothing to the discussion to disagree with them on the basis that somewhere else may have different weather.

 

We all get it - the weather is different in different places, so can we just get on with discussing what the models are showing!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

It's definitely not just you, but can we give up with this petty stuff regarding local conditions. Everyone lives in different parts of the UK, if someone says it's going to be unsettled, then it's probably safe to assume they mean in their locality, it really adds nothing to the discussion to disagree with them on the basis that somewhere else may have different weather.

 

We all get it - the weather is different in different places, so can we just get on with discussing what the models are showing!

Actually i was referring to the country as a whole, which, looking at the current models all suggest mobility which is why i used the term unsettled.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS pretty poor considering the first third of August is the peak of summer in temperature. Low pressure basically parks itself north-west of Scotland and stays there. GEM agrees.

 

 

Rtavn2401.gif

 

UKMO is actually worse.

 

Rukm1441.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Once again a battle going on between the Azores high trying to push the low northwards and high pressure over greenland wanting to stay put. I really cant see the heights to the north being dislodged any time soon but we still get this from the ECM. Warm southwesterlies and fairly dry for most away from the far NW.

 

Recm1681.gif


Monday looking very nice for SE England with mid to high 20s bring a brief taste of proper Summer

 

Recm1202.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Actually i was referring to the country as a whole, which, looking at the current models all suggest mobility which is why i used the term unsettled.

 

Well again, it's a new version of the same problem - some may say parts of the country seeing a few drier (totally dry for many) days is settled. Some may say that with the rest of the country still seeing rain, and the over-riding pattern beyond that looking mobile is unsettled. But do we really have to go round and round in circles over this stuff?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at this evenings GEFs there is a pattern change between the 6th and 12th of August moving towards what was suggested by the EC32 and I think the METO.

 

On the 6th we have HP over eastern Pole connecting to the Scandinavian ridge. Trough NE Canada feeding our boy just to the west of the UK which is bringing unsettled (general term) to the UK.

 

Fast forward to the 12th and no HP in the eastern Pole, Scandinavian ridge now east European. Trough over Canada gone as is the one west of the UK to be replaced by a weak trough over the UK and another Greenland and a suggestion of ridging to the south west.

 

A much less mobile pattern suggesting low pressure Greenland east and south of that a general area of HP in the Atlantic bringing a more stable westerly flow to the UK with about average temps.

 

Needless to say by the end of the run guess whose back on the scene?

 

But being optimistic I foresee a fairly reasonable outlook and perhaps some better weather for our northern friends.

Charts weatherbell

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Broadly speaking the Uk is in an unsettled spell which continues. Now the northwest will bear the brunt of the worst weather , but that does not mean the southeast of Britain finds itself without some heavy rain ,thanks or no thanks to shortwave troughs which blow up with out warning,, :angry:  :sorry:  :sorry:  That's sums it up to T+144.......

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows some very warm / hot weather at the start of next week across most of England and then again later next week across southern UK. In the meantime, the next 3/4 days show a good deal of fine weather with long sunny spells and lighter winds but with isolated showers, chilly nights but daytime temperatures slowly recovering into the low 20's c by saturday. Sunday looks even warmer, into the mid 70's F further south and the weekend looks largely fine with just a few showers dotted around, mainly across scotland where they could be heavy but by Sunday it looks dry, sunny and warmer for many parts of the UK. Rain pushes slowly eastwards on Monday which could be thundery in the south but before the rain it looks very warm in the s/e. Tues/wed look cooler and fresher with sunshine and showers but becoming warm / very warm again in the s/e during the second half of next week with largely fine conditions but staying cooler and more unsettled in northwest Britain. Further ahead it's still a nw/se split with spells of fine and warm weather further southeast and most of the wind/rain and cooler temps to the northwest.

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Edited by Frosty.
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