Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Methuselah]

Despite the real weather - warmish with a few fine days and some thunderstorms - being not too bad at all (for some) FI has been indicating a change to quite nasty NW'erly conditions...It still hasn't happened; it's still a week-or-so away...

 

And now we have the prospect another 'plume' next week...

[chapmanslade]

Despite the real weather - warmish with a few fine days and some thunderstorms - being not too bad at all (for some) FI has been indicating a change to quite nasty NW'erly conditions...It still hasn't happened; it's still a week-or-so away...

 

And now we have the prospect another 'plume' next week...

This is a pattern that has been returning again and again recently with these small depressions only getting picked up at relatively short notice in the high res outputs resulting in repeat warm surges from the south. If you look back over the last month there have been numerous occasions where a NW has been predicted at 10 days to be replaced by a small low over Biscay at 5 days. It does make you a little wary of putting too much confidence beyond 5 days when these small features have a big impact on the weather - certainly for the south of the UK.

[Man With Beard]

Despite the real weather - warmish with a few fine days and some thunderstorms - being not too bad at all (for some) FI has been indicating a change to quite nasty NW'erly conditions...It still hasn't happened; it's still a week-or-so away...

 

And now we have the prospect another 'plume' next week...

Yes I'm still expecting a change for the end next week - too simple a transition on some models at the moment - I expect trough disruption and a thundery low to emerge next Thursday/Friday, a bit like some models suggested yesterday, and the possibility of a plume if it falls in the right place. We might well have to ensure a coolish weekend following that, unless any trough disruption can dig deep enough. I feel at some point one of these troughs is going to dig deep enough to get properly cut-off and change our synoptics, that's if they continue to happen.

[Methuselah]

Yes I'm still expecting a change for the end next week - too simple a transition on some models at the moment - I expect trough disruption and a thundery low to emerge next Thursday/Friday, a bit like some models suggested yesterday, and the possibility of a plume if it falls in the right place. We might well have to ensure a coolish weekend following that, unless any trough disruption can dig deep enough. I feel at some point one of these troughs is going to dig deep enough to get properly cut-off and change our synoptics, that's if they continue to happen.

It all ties-in with what Tamara was saying, two-weeks' back (and about which I was extremely sceptical): persistent NWerlies were unlikely to materialize? And so far, they haven't!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z temperature wise looks average in the south where it also looks drier and brighter on most days, below average in central and especially northern britain where it looks generally more unsettled. The warmest day is next Monday with potential for mid 20's celsius for most of England and wales but also rather unsettled start to next week but then the warmth drains away south with Scotland looking rather cool, especially late next week, what a dreadful summer Scotland is having, if its not flooding its cool winds! I couldn't find any signs of even a brief plume on any of the 12z output. What I did see are signs of the Atlantic cranking up on the gfs/gem.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

We can all talk but I refer back to the very brief plume of early july....rest month isn't looking special in fact its average looking with NW winds jet over us normal Synoptics...nothing like some called when that very brief plume was upon the UK. Was hearing rinse repeat more heat an a great July.

EarlyAug looks mixed.

you do tend to see things from a glass  half full to me, your bias for cold is obvious but London and the SE has 'generally' seen more heat and storms than for a year or two during this last month, so quite why you paint this picture each time does baffle me somewhat.

For sure there is little sign of any repeat of major heat either north or south, I do prefer to try and give objective assessments,to me your posts are far from that.

Apologies if others feel I post out of turn but I do try and give an unbiased view of how things seem to be shaping up in the 1 to 2 week time frame.

My mean temperature is about 2C above my 18 year average which is fact and I suspect many south of here are even higher than that.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Part remove from quote.

[mhielte]

you do tend to see things from a glass  half full to me, your bias for cold is obvious but London and the SE has 'generally' seen more heat and storms than for a year or two during this last month, so quite why you paint this picture each time does baffle me somewhat.

For sure there is little sign of any repeat of major heat either north or south, I do prefer to try and give objective assessments,to me your posts are far from that.

Apologies if others feel I post out of turn but I do try and give an unbiased view of how things seem to be shaping up in the 1 to 2 week time frame.

My mean temperature is about 2C above my 18 year average which is fact and I suspect many south of here are even higher than that.

You're not the only one baffled. Definitely a wind up post. Laughable that he's talking about early Aug 'mixed' conditions without any links to charts when the models are struggling at short range!

[Biggin]

you do tend to see things from a glass  half full to me, your bias for cold is obvious but London and the SE has 'generally' seen more heat and storms than for a year or two during this last month, so quite why you paint this picture each time does baffle me somewhat.

For sure there is little sign of any repeat of major heat either north or south, I do prefer to try and give objective assessments,to me your posts are far from that.

Apologies if others feel I post out of turn but I do try and give an unbiased view of how things seem to be shaping up in the 1 to 2 week time frame.

My mean temperature is about 2C above my 18 year average which is fact and I suspect many south of here are even higher than that.

Agree John imby it has been a very good summer so far (could do with a bit more rain) and the models still show mid 20s for next ten days. I would love to know what my mean temp has been so far this year spring summerwise.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening , the model output up to T+144 shows most of the nation in a rather changeable outlook  the north bearing the brunt of the worst of weather...for southern parts a good deal of fine weather apart from the odd weak front moving through, Normal British Summer.....

[Frosty.]

the models still show mid 20s for next ten days.

Sorry Biggin but they don't show mid 20's celsius for the next 10 days, not even in southern England.

[Polar Maritime]

And back to what the Models are showing please. A 'Summer thread' is open for other musings of the like..

Edited July 17, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS week 1 temperature anomaly

Sums up the pattern to be honest, the positive anomaly in eastern areas resulting from most of the coming week seeing a continuation of the NW/SE split before a cooler pattern develops widely. Areas further north will see cooler weather throughout, such was the case this week.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some system develop during the latter stages of next week which could bring some very warm and thundery weather back across parts of the UK. Some of the models do see a low develop and rapidly deepen, though on a more southerly trajectory.

GEM as an example

 

The ECM throws a channel low, the GFS shows nothing to be honest.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

the models still show mid 20s for next ten days.

 

The first few days of next week remain warm in the south

 

 

Beyond this high teens / low 20's sums our temps up

[stodge]

Evening all

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

The NAO continues its relentless march back from the very negative current levels to neutrality by the end of the month but in truth, this isn't a lot of help looking at the synoptics:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015071712/gem-0-36.png?12

 

Sunday's chart from GEM illustrating the very negative current but the orientation of the trough in the Atlantic just doesn't work for the advection of hot continental air - the ridge of HP is too far south, east and too shallow to offer the UK anything so heat for eastern France but not much further north.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015071712/ECM1-240.GIF?17-0

 

Tonight's ECM - the UK is on the wrong side of the battle again and while the Azores HP is trying to ridge, it's a weak thing and the Atlantic LP systems are just too strong and the heights over Greenland are keeping said system too far south.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071712/gfs-0-336.png?12

 

GFS at the turn of the month - profoundly uninspiring for those wanting some summer heat.

 

I've meandered through the models tonight and all I can see is a slow and progressive deterioration through the rest of the month. None of this means we can't have an excellent August and it's far far too early to call time on "summer" but current prospects, while relatively benign and pleasant in general terms, don't offer much prospect of the things many want - heat and storms.

[Polar Maritime]

Not really any change from the GFS again this morning with a N/W - S/E split continuing. Towards the end of next week winds will turn from West to a cooler N/W Pm flow, As a Low swings further South than of late taking the Jet with it and eventually drawing a slack Northerly by the weekend with showers for some, And much cooler night-time temps dropping to single digits with a risk of Frosts for some isolated areas, Bar the S/E.. There are 'some hints' of a reprise towards the end of the run for the far South at the turn of the Month, Plenty of time yet for heat to build as we have seen in previous years. Who knows.. There's always the chance of an Indian Summer yet! 

Edited July 18, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts are fairly solidly suggesting the upper trough to become east of the UK Longitude with a general westerly Atlantic flow. Little sign of any +ve heights to change this and the 500mb flow has origins from fairly well north over the N American continent. This suggests that no marked heat other than the odd day and these days mostly confined to the SE quarter of the UK. More changeable the further NW one lives but rain occurring now and then even for the SE quarter.

Remember this is a prediction out about 2 weeks from 5 days from now. And of course I may have even that wrong!

links below

EC-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

NOAA below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[mushymanrob]

The anomaly charts are fairly solidly suggesting the upper trough to become east of the UK Longitude with a general westerly Atlantic flow. Little sign of any +ve heights to change this and the 500mb flow has origins from fairly well north over the N American continent. This suggests that no marked heat other than the odd day and these days mostly confined to the SE quarter of the UK. More changeable the further NW one lives but rain occurring now and then even for the SE quarter.

Remember this is a prediction out about 2 weeks from 5 days from now. And of course I may have even that wrong!

links below

EC-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

NOAA below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

on the plus side... the air quality is great! wonderfully fresh like it was for a lot of may and june in the pm air. so whilst not heat, its very pleasant outdoors in the sun.

[knocker]

Looking at this morning's day ten anomalies can't disagree with what JH says above  But in the ext period still on course for more influence from the Azores with HP eastern Europe and the weakening of the trough. August here we come,

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 18, 2015 by knocker

[draztik]

There has been a consistent signal (mostly from CFS ens, tho with support from EC32) that August will be a much drier month than normal, across all parts of the UK - signalling higher pressure ( with a propensity for pressure to be higher to the west of the UK).. but almost exclusively the same charts show a temp anomaly of in and around average, to slightly below - given the forecast placement of the High.

 

 

We shall see!

 

As for here and now, it's a pretty standard British summer. Warm but not hot in the S. Cool and changeable in the N.

 

precip anom weeks 1 & 2 GEFS / wetter in NW week 1, with a positive anom for most of UK into week 2.... 

Edited July 18, 2015 by draztik

[Stormyking]

Charts looking pretty average to say the least, quite unsettled with some much needed rain to be honest, it has actually been a dry summer!

Tomorrow Morning is looking wet for quite a lot of the country, but quick clears.

Furthder out into the runs, looks pretty average to me, cool Nw'erlies, though some days look quite showery too me which could be good for more thunder risk for parts of the country.

 

 

John I will not answer posts below as wind up offends me....Lets look at the facts....

The mean temp might be 2c above but your judging on now jma monthly means are bringing temps down to normal...the jma monthlys indicate a drop so we will be looking at a normal month

So far we have not seen sustained heat...brief plume yes..,yes I saw long posts saying rinse repeat heat for July...it isn't going to an hasn't happened so let's get level headed...Some seem to see heat an get any long range teleconnection an draw their own conclusions..

Me I see normal...image.jpg

Im afraid im gonna have to disagree with this bit, there ha actually been 3/4 different plumes,since the end of june and not just 1 brief one so to be honest it has really been a rinse and repeat in the last 4 weeks, mid to highs 20's for majority of parts, and a couple of 30's in there too.

 

As for the rest of the summer, and im including the first part of September too, there is plenty of time for more heat still.

 

This is just my view on it

[DR(S)NO]

Charts looking pretty average to say the least, quite unsettled with some much needed rain to be honest, it has actually been a dry summer!

Tomorrow Morning is looking wet for quite a lot of the country, but quick clears.

Furthder out into the runs, looks pretty average to me, cool Nw'erlies, though some days look quite showery too me which could be good for more thunder risk for parts of the country.

 

 

Im afraid im gonna have to disagree with this bit, there ha actually been 3/4 different plumes,since the end of june and not just 1 brief one so to be honest it has really been a rinse and repeat in the last 4 weeks, mid to highs 20's for majority of parts, and a couple of 30's in there too.

 

As for the rest of the summer, and im including the first part of September too, there is plenty of time for more heat still.

 

This is just my view on it

Oops Stormyking....I'm guessing that,whilst some will agree with you, a lot of folk on here.....certainly further north and west would take issue with some of this.

Certainly not been a dry summer up this way.....and I would LOVE to have experienced mid to high 20s this summer.....in fact mid to late teens has been the order of the day....and if August fails to deliver then this Summer will go down as very poor in my book.....

But I guess that's the UK for you....many in the SE will no doubt view it as a pretty warm and sunny one...

[Eugene]

on the plus side... the air quality is great! wonderfully fresh like it was for a lot of may and june in the pm air. so whilst not heat, its very pleasant outdoors in the sun.

 

 

Couldn't agree more Mushy, May especially was glorious, Southeasterlies of June/early July were pleasant but the cloudy TM SW'lys have made me ill, model output shows a wonderfully slack period next weekend with sub 546 dam air aloft with that exceptional air quality you and i like so much.

[Cloud 10]

ECM and GFS day 10 ensemble mean's both very similar showing generally cool and unsettled conditions persisting until at least the end of July.

 

 

 

Long range met-office forecast still banging the drum for more settled conditions as we head into August so will be interesting to see if/when any signs of this begin to show in the model output over the next week.

[mushymanrob]

August 1979 was rather dry but not sunny and hot, without checking the archives wasnt it azores based to our west? Rather cloudy at times but dry. Maybe thats the flavour hinted at...

[summer blizzard]

GEM presents the horror show..