Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Mokidugway]

This is a very unsettled chart

not overly unsettled ,look at the pressure

[Gael_Force]

This is a very unsettled chart 

I think your tenure might be very unsettled as well.

[Captain Shortwave]

No real change in terms of the output once you factor in the usual ebbs and flows of the models. Still looking mixed with some warmer and cooler weather. Again the end of this week and the start of next week offer some very warm conditions in places, especially the further south east you are as you would expect with heights high over the continent.

*Insert cooler unsettled charts to fill in the blanks between  *

The models tonight want to pull a more north westerly flow into the UK during week 2, will this happen or are the models trying to rid us of the high anomaly to our south/south east which will wane in due course as the reliable timeframe kicks in?

Edited July 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

This is a very unsettled chart 

To me, that looks like rather warm weather with very little rain...away from the NW, that is?

[Summer Sun]

This is a very unsettled chart 

 

That charts is for today and for most of us it was dry

 

This is an unsettled chart, looks quite a windy day on Friday maybe even some gales in exposed parts very unusual for the time of year

 

[ANYWEATHER]

I think we have two options on the table for the outlook from this weekend and into early next week. from gfs and ecm. Firstly and least favoured tonight and I repeat" tonight" as it all could change tomorrow is that pressure builds across southern Europe and keeps the Atlantic at bay giving most of the uk some hot and settled weather away from the northern half of Scotland . The second option and favourite tonight is for a cold front to move southeast across the nation and introduce clearer fresher weather but with plenty of sunshine for the southeast of Britain, once again the north bearing the brunt of any unsettled weather. It does look like the southeast of Britain in the place they need the rain wont be receiving very much in the days ahead... That's my view of things tonight....    

[Methuselah]

Cfs have been incorrect about this summer so far. The uk met on the other hand have had a much better handling on this summer in my books. By the way for the cfs you can't take one run in isolation. You have to look at other runs to go with it.

Cfs sounds like something one might extract via a lumber puncture? Or is that CFS? Whatever, it'd be just as efficient when forecasting the weather 3 months' hence?   

[Bob Sive]

No real change in terms of the output once you factor in the usual ebbs and flows of the models. Still looking mixed with some warmer and cooler weather. Again the end of this week and the start of next week offer some very warm conditions in places, especially the further south east you are as you would expect with heights high over the continent.

*Insert cooler unsettled charts to fill in the blanks between  *

The models tonight want to pull a more north westerly flow into the UK during week 2, will this happen or are the models trying to rid us of the high anomaly to our south/south east which will wane in due course as the reliable timeframe kicks in?

 

Yes Captain, doesn't really tie in with the Met Office outlook for later in the month.

[Man With Beard]

If don't want the NOAA 8-14 anomalies to spoil your evening, look away now:

 

 

That Scandi trough has been threatening us for ages without really hitting a knock-out blow, but it's ringing the doorbell this time. On the whole, from this chart you'd expect more troughing than ridging over the UK, and little chance of the air being sourced from somewhere further south. You'd be hard pressed to get anything hot out of that chart, maybe fleetingly warm for a day as low pressures move through but that's it.

 

ECM anomaly ends up similar:

 

 

Which translates to:

 

 

Could be worse but you'd be relying on a best case scenario to cash in on any hot weather or thunderstorms from this position. Best chance of warmer sunnier weather on the south coast, or in the south-west.

 

(Of course, those who dislike heatwaves will be delighted!)

[bluearmy]

Extended ens are keen to bring the lw trough into nw Europe as we head through week 2. been here before though and it hasn't verified with the sw/ne axis restored on the jet.

[johnholmes]

It's just cfs which are meant to be very reliable for seasonal forecasting, but recently they've floundered in some way or another. Like they were well out with may temperatures wheras met office was right on the money.

What is the confidence rating for it?

 

NOAA 8-14 as with any chart has a lower confidence than the 6-10 but in my view it is far more reliable than any synoptic output at such time scales. ECMWF scoring the highest at 500mb northern hemisphere but at only around 30+%. In other words it is wrong 2 out of 3 times. The anomaly chart from NOAA at 8-14 is probably right about 60% of the time, that is for predicting the correct pattern at 500mb.So a more reliable chart IF the various caveats I keep quoting are met.

[knocker]

Slight difference in the treatment of the low pressure over the eastern Pole and troughs branching off to Russia/UK between the GEFS and ECM anomalies at day ten although still maintaining the westerly quadrant flow over the UK with indications of a N/S split, The bad news is this extensive area of low pressure is still knocking around at day 14 with the trough stuck over the UK. But hey it's set to disappear around the 1st of August.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 14, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

If don't want the NOAA 8-14 anomalies to spoil your evening, look away now:

 

 

That Scandi trough has been threatening us for ages without really hitting a knock-out blow, but it's ringing the doorbell this time. On the whole, from this chart you'd expect more troughing than ridging over the UK, and little chance of the air being sourced from somewhere further south. You'd be hard pressed to get anything hot out of that chart, maybe fleetingly warm for a day as low pressures move through but that's it.

 

ECM anomaly ends up similar:

 

 

Which translates to:

 

 

Could be worse but you'd be relying on a best case scenario to cash in on any hot weather or thunderstorms from this position. Best chance of warmer sunnier weather on the south coast, or in the south-west.

 

(Of course, those who dislike heatwaves will be delighted!)

 

agreed.

theres no quick way back to heat, just at a time when we are hoping for signs of lasting warmth evolving.

but at least a monsoon season is unlikely, air quality will be nice , and itll be pleasant in the sun.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at then London ENS up-to the 25th it doesn't look too bad temperature wise fluctuating between average and above average, but after the 25th it takes a clear downward trend before moving back closer to average at month's end

 

 

The Aberdeen ENS shows below average 850's from the 23rd though again moving back to average at month's end

 

 

Similar picture from the Manchester ENS

 

 

All in all from around mid next week, it's looking a good deal fresher especially in the south and SE with a north westerly flow looking a good bet from around mid week pleasant enough though in any sunshine with good air quality

Edited July 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 15TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak area of High pressure over Northern Britain will drift slowly NE and allow a SE flow ahead of a deepening depression to the SW later moving NNE towards Scotland.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times then perhaps cooler generally later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow maintaining a relentless course across the UK from the Atlantic for the foreseeable future. It's axis will remain SW to NE or West to East with varying strengths. Later in the less reliable end of the run the flow becomes even less desirable with a NW to SE slant over the South of the UK or Northern France bringing the UK on to the cool side of the Jet flow.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today focuses much on the pattern we have seen for some time now in that pressure will remain high to the South of the UK trapping all the heat to the South while Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK keeps cooler Atlantic winds across much of the UK with rain at times towards the North and West, more occasionally reaching the SE too. Later in the run pressure becomes higher to the SW with a more NW element to the winds with further unsettled spells for all with rain at times and cooler conditions than of late likely for the SE of this pattern verifies.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a similar pattern to that of the operational run with the axis of High pressure to the South changing somewhat through Week 2 with a NW flow developing and with Low pressure still in close proximity to Northern Britain at times some cool and changeable weather is likely for all by then with the warmth of the first week in the SE pushed away South-east over Europe.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning strongly support yesterday's set with a NW flow across the UK from most members in 14 days time bringing cooler air SE over the UK. Many members also show Low pressure close to the North or NE of Britain with rain or showers for many with the driest conditions likely towards the SW.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a NW/SE split being maintained within the confines of it's 6 day output with the North and NW at greatest risk from cloud and rain from Atlantic depressions while the South and East stay dry for much of the time and quite warm and humid at times in SW winds.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mostly focus on the passage of a deepening Low transferring NNE from the SW approaches to a point North of Scotland on Friday delivering rain and potential gales to the NW while after a glancing blow from a thundery trough across the SE these areas return to fine and dry weather late in the period while after the Low clears further incursions from Atlantic fronts and depressions bring the risk of further unsettled weather as we move into next week across Northern areas.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today also shows the deepening Low too with strong winds for the North and West for a time and then keeps Low pressure close to the North for some time with wind and rain at times across the North as a result. In the South a slacker and sometimes warm and humid SW flow is maintained with far less rain and some warm sunshine at times. At the end of the run pressure has fallen somewhat over continental Europe with the risk of thundery showers and high humidity increasing across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains the status-quo for the South and East with the continuation of a lot of dry and fine weather with variable cloud, little if any rain and some rather warm and humid temperatures at times in the light SW flow. The North and West a more mobile pattern with occasional rain on cooler Atlantic winds in association with lower pressure to the North and NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

 

ECM ECM today splits into two halves with the first half of the run maintaining largely SW winds across the UK, strong in the NW with fronts delivering bands of rain and showers here while the South and East keeps close to warm High pressure over Europe with a lighter SW breeze and a lot of fine weather in variable cloud and warm and occasionally humid conditions. By the second week though pressure transfers to be higher to the SW which pushes a colder West to NW flow down across the UK with rain or showers at times for all by then in much fresher air which is shown to push well South into NW Europe too..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows the theme of cooler winds from a more Northerly source becoming more influential across the British Isles through the second week of output today.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme of a possible shift of emphasis to veer winds from the mild SW to a cooler NW flow across the UK has continued this morning with maintained cross model support.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.5 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.1 and UKMO at 80.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.2 pts over GFS's 49.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 32.3 pts to 28.1 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The patterning towards an eventual change to somewhat cooler and fresher weather in the second week of the forecast period this morning is maintained. In the meantime the weather remains set as it has for a while past with the same SE/NW split keeping going. This is not without interest though as in the coming days an unusually deep depression is likely to pass close to NW Ireland and Scotland with rain and gales a none to pleasant ingredient of this no doubt affecting the open golf championship in the coming days. Elsewhere this has little effect other than provide a catalyst for a brief splurge of warm and humid air which triggers some thunderstorms for a time from tomorrow evening. thereafter it's back to business as usual with the South and East largely dry and bright while the North and West sees further rain at times from more Atlantic fronts and disturbances next week. It's then the second week of this morning's output which promotes interest if you want a change on the current pattern as it is looking increasingly likely that High pressure over NW Europe will relax somewhat with the Azores High in it's home location turning winds to a cooler west or NW direction across all areas and coupled with the fall of pressure over Europe allows winds to swing NW and pull cooler and showery conditions SE to all of the UK and parts of Europe too. It still looks like the SW will fair best with the least showers and rain while the North sees the most of any prolonged showers. Nevertheless, there will be a noticeable drop off in temperatures for all by day and night in the South and coupled with the brisk breeze it will no doubt feel chillier than of late. This is only the second day of this change being shown and while it looks increasingly likely to verify in one form or another it is still more than a week away and may be modified or even removed in subsequent output but with the Northern hemisphere patterning and the position of the Jet flow it has some higher than normal percentage chance of verifying if the predictions from the models over the next 7 days ring true. Once again I emphasise there is nothing particularly nasty shown in the outputs just a shift of the pendulum the wrong way if it's a long hot spell you seek. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 16th 2015

[Man With Beard]

Can't really argue with the idea of NWlies in the T168-T240 period. A couple of "get-outs" though. First, it depends on the building of a mid-Atlantic high, something which has already been modelled several times this summer with no success. A second one is that, again going by the form of the summer so far, the western end of the trough (see yellows in the mid-Atlantic on first chart below) ...

 

 

... could develop into another more active system, encouraging a rise in heights ahead of it which block the path of the NWlies and push the Scandi trough further north - a few GEFS members do something like that. Not all hot and sunny though! (EDIT: Removed links as they all changed for the 06Z run, sorry!!)

 

 

The op run itself is not a million miles from the same situation:

Is this the reason that the Met persist with a "hot and sunny" warning (EDIT: warning = possibility!!) in their mid-term forecasts?

Edited July 15, 2015 by rjbw

[knocker]

No overall change with the anomalies this morning with our resident upper trough dominating procedures as it moves SE before parking it's bike over the UK where it remains until the end of the ext period. But lights are flickering at the end of the tunnel as  we enter August.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[johnholmes]

Is this the reason that the Met persist with a "hot and sunny" warning in their mid-term forecasts

Hi RJBW - That comment seems to a touch OTT if one reads what they posted on their web site?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

It hardly ranks as a 'hot and sunny' warning as you describe it 

 

The anomaly charts link below are at odds with one another so some doubt about what weather pattern to expect, but not a heat wave other than the odd day being possible into very warm category?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Nor does the fairly consistent NOAA version suggest much in the way of prolonged heat, it does look a better prospect than either of the other two though. Be interesting to see which one is nearer the mark. EC is closer to NOAA than GFS but shows little +ve heights which NOAA does show (they are small anomalies though)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Edited July 15, 2015 by johnholmes

[Eugene]

Can't really argue with the idea of NWlies in the T168-T240 period. A couple of "get-outs" though. First, it depends on the building of a mid-Atlantic high, something which has already been modelled several times this summer with no success. A second one is that, again going by the form of the summer so far, the western end of the trough (see yellows in the mid-Atlantic on first chart below) ...

 

 

... could develop into another more active system, encouraging a rise in heights ahead of it which block the path of the NWlies and push the Scandi trough further north - a few GEFS members do something like that. Not all hot and sunny though!

 

Here's the "bingo" run!!

 

The op run itself is not a million miles from the same situation:

Is this the reason that the Met persist with a "hot and sunny" warning in their mid-term forecasts?

 

 

Model output must be poor if near average temps are a bingo run.

[Man With Beard]

Model output must be poor if near average temps are a bingo run.

Ooops! used wrong links, they all changed when the ensembles changed!!

Edited.

[Frosty.]

Comparing like for like, today's Gfs 12z is much better than 24 hours ago, this one shows a lot of high pressure for the s/e from Sunday and throughout next week which is reinforced by another surge of HP from the southwest, it becomes increasingly very warm / hot, especially for the south & south eastern half of England. More unsettled and relatively cooler further n/w. The met office outlook for the first half of August sounds really good too with a generally settled and warm / very warm spell.

Edited July 15, 2015 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

Well July isn't looking fantastic now....Brief plume early in month followed by average NW and certainly not a month to remember if JMA monthly mean is to be believed for next 15 days.

 

As some had suggested.

 

the usual rather downbeat comment from you but here it is running some 2C above the 18 year average so I suspect the London area is even higher. As to the outlook then it does not look as poor as you suggest!

No charts I know but see my earlier post using GFS comparison to my usual anomaly charts. The 12z output seems to be along similar lines as to how I would expect the surface to show assuming the NOAA anomaly at 6-10 days is about right. That is to about 192h, it seems not to follow the anomaly idea after that.

Edited July 15, 2015 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Well July isn't looking fantastic now....Brief plume early in month followed by average NW and certainly not a month to remember if JMA monthly mean is to be believed for next 15 days.

 

As some had suggested.

It looks very warm /hot in your area next week, the hottest part of the UK..lucky you!

[Man With Beard]

Have to say, I didn't think next week was looking particularly noteworthy until this evening, but, actually, the latest GFS has central and southern areas in a heatwave all week long - temps maxing out between 27C and 30C in the best areas (and we have recent experience of this model underestimating temperatures too). UKMO and GEM not extravagantly different, too. Northern areas will have to wait a bit longer though.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly this evening is still swinging the upper trough SE and over the UK by day 10 but over the ext period the influence of this diminishes into a flat zonal flow so just building up to the expected arrival of the Azores beginning of August.

 

In the meantime next week looking very pleasant apart from Scotland catching the depressions as they pass by. So everything on track.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/