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ECMWF 12z has TD 09W absorbing its neighbor 94W, slowly churning WNW for 8-days ... result is massive Super Typhoon

Chart weatherbell

 

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Tropical Depression 09W is now Tropical Storm Chan-hom, with winds of 35kts. The storm is located near the island of Ujelang, in the east of the Western Pacific basin. Chan-hom is forecast to head generally westwards over the coming days, and then interact with invest 94W to the west, eventually absorbing the invest. As Chan-hom then rounds the steering ridge to the north, it should head north on the ridge's westward flank. Chan-hom should gradually strengthen through the next several days. Chan-hom will have a long time over water so could become an intense typhoon as Knocker says.

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Chan-hom has intensified slowly, to 45kts. Moderate shear has prevented quick intensification so far. Chan-hom's intensification rate is expected to continue to be slow over the next few days as it moves westwards towards Guam. Chan-hom is then expected to commence a Fujiwhara Interaction with invest 94W, and absorb the invest. Through this time, Chan-hom's motion is expected to be slow and erratic, and not much strengthening is expected. Beyond this, Chan-hom should move northwestwards after the merger of the two systems, as the system rounds the western extent of the ridge to the north. Shear will ease by this stage, allowing faster intensification by days 4 and 5.

 

The image below shows Chan-hom and invest 94W already getting close to one another and beginning to interact. Chan-hom is to the top right of the image, Invest 94W to the left:

 

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Chan-hom has intensified decently today, and has become a typhoon, with winds of 65kts according to JTWC. Chan-hom has absorbed invest 94W, which has had little effect on Chan-hom. Chan-hom is expected to continue to strengthen, with JTWC expecting a 130kt intensity by day 5, which is Super Typhoon strength. Guam is in the firing line from Chan-hom currently, with Chan-hom expected to pass very near or over the island in about 24-36hrs time.

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Two things have happened with Chan-hom; shear has increased dramatically over the storm due to nearby troughing, and the storm is now interacting with a new invest, 98W, to the northeast. Chan-hom has weakened to 45kts due to the shear, and has veered northeastwards in response to the interaction with 98W. This is Chan-hom's second direct interaction, which just shows how busy the Western Pacific is at the moment. Chan-hom may well go onto interact with a third system (TS Linfa) to the west in a few days time aswell!

The image below shows Chan-hom and invest 98W interacting, and the noticeable deterioration of Chan-hom (Chan-hom is in the bottom left of the image):

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Chan-hom should eventually move into lower shear conditions as the trough lifts out, and should resume northwesterly motion soon as invest 98W is forecast to dissipate. JTWC are now expecting an eventual peak at 115kts at day 5.

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Chan-hom is finally recovering as shear eases and invest 98W has dissipated. Winds have increased slightly, to 50kts. Convection has returned over the LLCC, with much better banding features. Chan-hom should now strengthen more decently, and is forecast to become a 125kt category 4 typhoon. Landfall is expected on Eastern China, still as an intense typhoon, which is concerning.

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Sorry Si...But, whenever I see 'Typhoon Chan-Hom', I imagine a super-fast celebrity chef! :oops:  :oops:  :fool:  :fool:  :D

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Chan-hom has been slowly strengthening as it churns northwestwards towards Eastern China. Winds are up to 80kts, a cat 1 typhoon. Chan-hom has a rather large cloud filled and ragged eye. Chan-hom should continue to strengthen, peaking at cat 4 before landfall.

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Chan-hom is now a cat 2 with winds of 90kts. The typhoon looks in better shape today with a more well defined eye and a more solid central dense overcast, albeit a little thin on the north side of the eye due to surpressed poleward outflow. Further steady intensification is expected as Chan-hom continues it's journey towards the east coast of China.

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Chan-hom has become a category 4 on the SS scale, with winds of 115kts. The typhoon could strengthen a little more in the next 24hrs, before weakening slightly before landfall on the east coast of China. This is likely to be a signficant impact to to this part of the world from dangerous Chan-hom.

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Category 4 Chan-hom: One of Shanghai's Strongest Typhoons on Record?

 

 

Category 4 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed west-northwest to northwest at 13 mph towards China, and appears poised to make landfall as one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Of particular concern is Chan-hom's storm surge, which has the potential to bring the highest water levels ever observed into Shanghai, China's most populous city, with 23 million people in the metro area. In their 9:45 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Chan-hom's central pressure at 935 mb; in their 11 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Chan-hom's top winds at 140 mph. A storm of this magnitude is sure to pile up a large storm surge, particularly since Chan-hom is a very large typhoon with tropical-storm force winds that extended outwards 310 miles from the center. This storm surge will pile up throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, the potential exists for some of the highest water levels ever recorded along portions of the coast south of Shanghai, to the right of where the center makes landfall. JTWC and JMA were forecasting on Thursday evening (U.S. EDT) that Chan-hom would make landfall between 04 - 06 UTC Saturday (midnight - 2 am EDT, or 1 - 3 pm JST.) In their 01:45 UTC Friday (9:45 pm EDT Thursday) forecast, JMA predicted that Chan-hom would have a 945 mb pressure and sustained 10-minute average winds of 100 mph at 00 UTC Saturday, about 8 - 10 hours before landfall. In their 11 pm EDT Thursday forecast, JTWC predicted that Chan-hom would be a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds (1-minute average) at that time. If Chan-hom hits at this intensity, it would be the strongest landfalling storm to hit within 200 miles of Shanghai in at least 35 years.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3038

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Chan-hom peaked at 120kts. The typhoon has now weakened to 90kts due to increasing shear. The typhoon is very near landfall, just south of Shanghai, China. Landfall should occur within the next 12hrs. Chan-hom should then recurve and head northeastwards towards North Korea as a weakening system undergoing extratropical transition.

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According to local newspaper reports, Chan-hom made landfall in the Zhoushan archipelago south of Shanghai at 4.40 pm (local time) this afternoon. The central pressure was 955 mb at that time. There is severe disruption - if not, yet, any reports of damage - in northern Zhejiang province. By 4 pm, average rainfall across the city of Ningbo was 163 mm with one station in the nearby mountains reporting 504 mm.

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Chan-hom made landfall yesterday, and is now heading towards North Korea. Winds are down to 50kts, partly due to land interaction and now due to high southerly shear. Chan-hom will barely be a tropical storm at landfall in North Korea.

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Chan-hom made it's final landfall on the west coast of North Korea yesterday and has dissipated over the Hamgyong mountains.

 

Been an interesting storm to watch this one, with the early Fujiwhara interactions and a lifespan of nearly two weeks.

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