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Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Well you can see the flashes from the storm North of Bradford from Beverley: that must be 80 miles or so!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

New active cells firing further west in BoB...hence possibly the weather alert posted above by a SW chap :D

Look at the new cells forming off of W France...possibly these heading your way

It's nice to be in with a shout if I'm honest. I will refrain from being expectant of anything though, just in case. lol

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Thunder heard and flickers of lightning to my south - no way can this be the Leeds one it must be the one on the east coast?

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Fortunately the Bay of Biscay storm seems to be taking more of a northerly than NE track again!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Is this a app if so what is it called + would it be compatible with a Apple device?

Alerts Pro. It is available for iOS, it's part of the meteogroup who own WeatherPro. In app purchases are available for extras, which i always go for, if the app is good.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

Thunder heard and flickers of lightning to my south - no way can this be the Leeds one it must be the one on the east coast?

Looking at the radar there's a fresh storm around Whitley Bay...

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Deffo another possible supercell passed over Skipton across the Yorkshire Pennines, producing large hail, damaging winds

post-1052-0-92427900-1435791197_thumb.pn

Gonna be a long night for NE England residents!

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

Fortunately the Bay of Biscay storm seems to be taking more of a northerly than NE track again!

It appears to be spawning new cells from the outflow. Numerous small ones are popping up rapidly. Here's hoping it comes this way overnight it's still insanely hot here, almost 26'c still at midnight in the center of MK. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

At least the thunder wasn't too loud! probably due to the noise of the hail on the deck/chairs/trees/hammock etc !

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

There are 2 big white blobs to that storm headed this way now - some very intense radar returns for rainfall or hail maybe?

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley

looks like something from florida, was that the manc storm?

Yes it was. Amazingly frequent IC lightning :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Fortunately the Bay of Biscay storm seems to be taking more of a northerly than NE track again!

This is good no? we do not want the Belgiums scoffing it all they already got the chocolate.

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

new estofex forecast out.

Edited by poseidon
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

looks like something from florida, was that the manc storm?

I used the exact same quote whilst watching this storm haha!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

What are your thoughts on it keeping energy if it comes the way of the UK? I can't find any SB or MUCAPE that would realistically keep it going.

Wouldn't worry too much over CAPE charts for early morning, plenty of energy and instability to keep these storms going, question is, who will get them and who will miss out? Wish I knew!

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

Sky is very chaotic here, quite a few lightning flashes from this elevated storm. No rain and very little thunder

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

post-19153-0-53091600-1435791648_thumb.j

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 02 Jul 2015 06:00 to Fri 03 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 01 Jul 2015 22:56

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for NW France and N / central Benelux countries mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts and to a lesser extend tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the southern North Sea, southern Scandinavia, W Germany, central and western France, E Spain, and the Alps mainly for large or very large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for W Turkey mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

An amplified ridge is located across western Europe, flanked by a deep N Atlantic trough and a trough/cut off across E Europe. A strong southerly jet extends from Iberia to the North Sea ahead of a lifting trough that will travel from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea during the period.

At lower levels, a plume of warm air extends from the west Mediterranean to the North Sea. To the west, a sharp frontal zone will slowly progress east over France and the North Sea. Eastern Europe is affected by a northerly to easterly flow advecting dry and cooler air. Best low-level moisture will be co-located with the axis of warm air where it nicely overlaps with steep lapse rates. Focus of convective development will be a frontal convergence that slowly moves east.

DISCUSSION

Central and N France, Benelux countries, W Germany, and North Sea

A well developed frontal convergence zone is expected from Aquitaine in W France to the Benelux countries and the North Sea on Thursday morning. The exact location of this boundary is sensitive to overnights severe convection that has initiated across the Bay of Biscay and will spread northward overnight, leaving behind outflow boundaries.

In the morning hours, overnights storm cluster is expected to move north-east across northern France into the North Sea and the Benelux countries. Latest Trappes sounding indicates a well-developed elevated mixed layer that is expected to overlap with rich moisture indicated at 750 hPa in the Brest sounding, allowing for elevated CAPE around 1000 J/kg. With 15 m/s southerly winds at 700 hPa and 25 m/s SWerly winds at 500 hPa, these storms are forecast to become well-organized, and embedded supercells or multicells will be capable of producing large of very large hail.

In the late morning, storms will slowly move offshore across the North Sea and into the northern Benelux countries, where the severe threat is expected to increase. This is mostly due to plenty low-level moisture along the frontal convergence zone that allows for boundary-layer rooting of storms. Very strong low-level vertical wind shear can evolve at the cooler side of the frontal boundary and sea breeze convergence, and every supercell that forms in this regime and becomes surface rooted will be capable of producing strong tornadoes.

However, limiting factor is the capping inversion due to the rather cool boundary layer near the coasts and storms may not profit from the strongest low-level vertical wind shear. Nevertheless, very large of giant hail are not ruled out with the strongest cells. Severe wind gusts are also not ruled out, especially when storms manage to build cold pools and merge to a bow echo, moving NE along the coast. Local flash floods are not ruled out. A level 2 is issued.

Outflow boundaries from the morning storms may spread into southern / eastern France and W Germany during the day. Storm initiation is limited given the capping inversion. In the afternoon and evening, DCVA sets in from the west as the lifting trough axis approaches across France. This can assist in deeper convergence and initiation becomes more likely. Storms that form across south-western France can again become well-organized given 20 m/s DLS, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. From eastern France to W Germany, vertical wind shear remains weak, but given 2000 J/kg CAPE and around 10 to 15 m/s DLS, large hail is forecast. Additionally, local excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts are not ruled out.

Storms are forecast to continue during the night hours and spread into southern Scandinavia. Main threat will be large hail until the morning hours.

http://www.estofex.org

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Deffo another possible supercell passed over Skipton across the Yorkshire Pennines, producing large hail, damaging winds

attachicon.gifhiradarzoomv42 (2).png

Gonna be a long night for NE England residents!

 

 

Nick if this hits that's 3 severe storms today - I can no longer moan about not seeing T&L LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Wickford Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms
  • Location: Wickford Essex

I'm surprised the system over France isn't drawing more attention. I seriously think warnings will go out for the South east at some stage. If that survives it could be nasty stuff. I've been checking it's progress. It continues to develop and I think it will arrive earlier than expected. Happy days if it does

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