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Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

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Tempest Contributor

Tempest

Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
Posted

Bbc just said that thunderstorms will be hit and miss tomorrow. Well! Thats it. I'm emigrating :-(

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Could either be Sunnyhull here tomorrow, or Stormyhull. Personally, am hoping it's both. :p

Good luck anyway to whoever gets the storms tonight and tomorrow, especially for those of you to the North/North-West. Perhaps, though, as can happen sometimes, thundery weather could easily develop in places where it wasn't forecast, so certainly can't completely rule out the possibility of thunderstorms erupting further South. What with all the very warm/hot air around. :)

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

06z NMM (NetWx high res) keen to develop storms much earlier and further south across S Wales tomorrow.

 

Look what it churns out over the N Sea after storms fire over Wales!!

 

To be honest, I am still baffled by the divergence in all of the models just 24 hours out...which (if any) will prevail I wonder!?

 

Current Met Office rainfall forecast has it slightly further South and East than the above for initiation. I wonder if my reverse psyhcology is wokring? :laugh:

 

Either way I think there may be some pleased storm fans somewhere tomorrow.

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

It's rather annoying that the West Midlands is sandwhiched in between a couple of target zones on both good storm days this week, I fear we will see absolutely nothing at all but building clouds to produce further north, however, it's the kind of atmosphere where anything can spark from nothing and for those reasons I wouldn't rule a storm out anywhere in England between now and Sunday, but I'd suggest for here specifically it's probably 20%<.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Bbc just said that thunderstorms will be hit and miss tomorrow. Well! Thats it. I'm emigrating :-(

 

The best thunderstorms tend to be hit and miss in nature.

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Tempest Contributor

Tempest

Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
Posted

The best thunderstorms tend to be hit and miss in nature.

It just seemed that it had been toned down from this morning when they were using words like 'ferocious' and 'beast'. But, of course, you're right and we will just have to wait and see what happens. Edge of the seat stuff...this :-)

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Tempest Contributor

Tempest

Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
Posted

Strange, meteox showing lots of lightning north scot but other sites showing it quiet.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

It's rather annoying that the West Midlands is sandwhiched in between a couple of target zones on both good storm days this week, I fear we will see absolutely nothing at all but building clouds to produce further north, however, it's the kind of atmosphere where anything can spark from nothing and for those reasons I wouldn't rule a storm out anywhere in England between now and Sunday, but I'd suggest for here specifically it's probably 20%<.

 

Other than perhaps N Wales and Scotland tomorrow, nowhere this week is nailed on and we are all waiting with baited breath. 

 

The models cannot get to grips with this situation (look at the disparity between them all - GFS, ECM, UKMO, NMM, WRF all saying something different). 

 

Midlands are in the firing line IMO for Friday, especially if the warm front fires - furthermore, I have noticed with each run recently the hot and humid air drives west across France (which is a good thing) before drifting North across C/S/SE England. 

 

I really wouldn't rule anything out...what is being charted at the moment almost certainly not turn out like it...and, for what its worth, no model at the moment is giving me huge confidence for my area either.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

It's rather annoying that the West Midlands is sandwhiched in between a couple of target zones on both good storm days this week, I fear we will see absolutely nothing at all but building clouds to produce further north, however, it's the kind of atmosphere where anything can spark from nothing and for those reasons I wouldn't rule a storm out anywhere in England between now and Sunday, but I'd suggest for here specifically it's probably 20%<.

Agreed. Not certain but fairly confident Any rain here tomorrow will be light and won't turn thundery till it reaches the north.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

This is fun not knowing what could or doesn't happen it seems very uncertain but if there is one thing I am certain off its that its going to be a warm/hot week with the storm risk generally increasing as the week goes on if the current risk of the SE looks good enough for Thursday night I might take a drive but lets wait and see how it pans out. 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

It will be interesting to see if that unstable looking cloud over the Brest peninsula moves over here, it would suggest that mid level air isn't as capped as previously thought...

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

But we should all remember that in the UK being in a forecast zone usually means you'll be the one place that misses out completely...

Here's hoping...

;-P

Yes, this is what we like to see, come on! :D

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Just had a fire evacuation here in Lancashire where I'm working today. Bliss to get out onto the tennis courts...it's warm, humid and cloudy. If this was anywhere else it'd be popping off nicely!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Just had a fire evacuation here in Lancashire where I'm working today. Bliss to get out onto the tennis courts...it's warm, humid and cloudy. If this was anywhere else it'd be popping off nicely!

Cloudy!!??? Here I can honestly say I can't remember the last time I saw such crystal clear skies.

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Yeah, in Leeds it's still sunny but there's random areas of mid-high level cloud moving over from time to time. Dunno if it's a result of atmosphere instability, but it's actually kind of annoying because there's no chance of anything happening here until tomorrow afternoon.

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fazer76 Apprentice

fazer76

Posted
Posted

Heat aside I believe there'll be some newsworthy thunderstorms incoming during the next few days. Homegrown mixed in with a few hefty imports. Moderate/Large hail, gusty winds and high rainfall spot totals in a short space of time. Some pretty spectacular electrical storms in places both during the day and night time period. Typically a summer spell of weather which we don't always see very often.

Around 40C temps over France, Benelux with a stirring S/SE flow is only a day or so away.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

Just had a fire evacuation here in Lancashire where I'm working today. Bliss to get out onto the tennis courts...it's warm, humid and cloudy. If this was anywhere else it'd be popping off nicely!

 

I doubt it, heat alone even with surface humidity is often not sufficient. Take a look at the actual skew-t diagrams?

Edited by johnholmes
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

It will be interesting to see if that unstable looking cloud over the Brest peninsula moves over here, it would suggest that mid level air isn't as capped as previously thought...

 

An inversion doesn't stop clouds developing, it just means that they're unable to continue vertically, in to something bigger.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

I doubt it, heat alone even with surface humidity is often not sufficeint. Take a look at the actual skew-t diagrams?

The Manchester one has a good lid at T+00 but that has gone by 24h time IF it is correct for then of course.

the link

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=3baff3078dfee005471ed3b566377723

Edited by johnholmes
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

I doubt it, heat alone even with surface humidity is often not sufficeint. Take a look at the actual skew-t diagrams?

 

I've seen over on UKWW that the Nottingham ascent for tomorrow is nothing short of explosive but the pros don't even think that far south and east will see anything of note with the warning being further N&W. If anything does initiate further S under the sort of CAPE levels shown then it could be severe I would have thought.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

I've seen over on UKWW that the Nottingham ascent for tomorrow is nothing short of explosive but the pros don't even think that far south and east will see anything of note with the warning being further N&W. If anything does initiate further S under the sort of CAPE levels shown then it could be severe I would have thought.

 

I'll take a look and comment

pretty dry in mid levels, perhaps that is the basis for the professional comments you remark on. The input of height with the Pennines to give it an extra boost MIGHT be the reason, or part of the reason for the comments made. I note that Met have a warning out for the north, see link below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435705200

Is that what you were commenting on?

Edited by johnholmes
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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted

I've seen over on UKWW that the Nottingham ascent for tomorrow is nothing short of explosive but the pros don't even think that far south and east will see anything of note with the warning being further N&W. If anything does initiate further S under the sort of CAPE levels shown then it could be severe I would have thought.

I think the North Midlands is a perfect location for this event, if things shift ever so slightly SE, we could see some really severe storms around here. 

And even on the current forecasts we are in with some chance of a storm. 

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