Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Harry]

Your take has the hot spot a little further further North than the GFS Harry. An interesting day tomorrow! 

 

 

Indeed - the NMM however has the storms at their strongest over northern and north eastern Scotland later, strongly resembling an MCS to me (or even two distinct MCS'). However, I may update it tomorrow if the charts start jiggling around a bit (as I'm sure they will)

 

GFS also keen to break out some storms down the eastern side of England, but it only appears to be GFS with that view at the moment.

 

UKMO downplaying it all at the moment, but interestingly wanting storms across SW England during tomorrow morning.

 

If the divergence between all the models tells us anything its that you DON'T COUNT your chickens.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Harry

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Here's a mock-up of what I think we can expect to see based on study of all the models, forecasts and extraneous information available:

Edit: clearly I am taking the schu ;-)

[sn0wman]

Yup you are correct - this is tomorrow's forecast which is pretty much exactly what I'd envisaged.

First time I've seen a moderate risk over my location... Exciting times!

[ancientsolar]

Surprised to see the CAPE on the GFS already up at 6am this morning!! 
Netweather Xtra here I come ! .. going to be looking for any isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over Western Europe today !

[Sam Kennedy]

I just took a look at the GFS for tomorrow @ 15:00

 

I've been out of this for a while, but isn't 2500+ j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -10 huge for the UK?

 

What sort of CAPE and LI values were we looking at when we had that huge storm in 2012 which caused all that flooding?

[fazer76]

First isolated but locally severe storms quite likely to fire later especially into parts of Wales, NW England right down the spine of the country Pennines area into parts of Scotland. Heat sure is building add increasing humidity plus all the other juicy ingredients remain on tap, it is bound to go bang rather spectacularly at some point this week. Like buses, these big storms may well all come at once!

[Costa Del Fal]

It suddenly looks awful storm wise here this

Week now. Tomorrow it looks like they will be to the north of us and Friday looks to be downgrading quite markedly on the 00z at least with storms to the east of here. Can guarantee that will happen now.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

People worrying already 

 

This is only just the start, if temperatures end up that notch or two higher, then the CIN will be more challenged surely, which means that more storms would break out. We've also seen how wrong forecasts can be, so areas that may not be forecasted a storm, may end up getting one! This is going to be fun from now on in.

[ancientsolar]

People worrying already 

 

This is only just the start, if temperatures end up that notch or two higher, then the CIN will be more challenged surely, which means that more storms would break out. We've also seen how wrong forecasts can be, so areas that may not be forecasted a storm, may end up getting one! This is going to be fun from now on in.

A slight psychopathic essence to your message there haha ~~ Love it!!  

[Thunderbolt_]

To be honest, today will be more fine than thundery. Yes the CAPE and LI is there across northern and western parts, but there isn't much moisture in the air, especially at 500hpa. This means that any convective activity will be quite isolated, so you're better off just enjoying the heat today, and saving the thunder for tomorrow.
 

[fazer76]

There will be plenty so called bites of the cherry, panic not required. Those cherries will be very juicy indeed.

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm sorry but to me, for most People Friday's potential has disappeared pretty much. The nmm is awful unless your in the far SE. Can't see it changing back much now.

[NL]

Even the 'supercellular' storm on the 28/06/12 that hit the North east was a let down for us on the coast. Newcastle City which is only 10 miles away from South Shields  was hit pretty hard. There was no indication that this storm would die as quickly as it did, you can imagine my disappointment when a rare powerful storm is heading in your direction only to die in an instant. At least I got some great shots of a very turbulent sky.

 

[Harry]

I'm sorry but to me, for most People Friday's potential has disappeared pretty much. The nmm is awful unless your in the far SE. Can't see it changing back much now.

 

The WRF-NMM charts only go up to early hours of Friday. Which charts are you using?

[Boro Snow]

Even the 'supercellular' storm on the 28/06/12 that hit the North east was a let down for us on the coast. Newcastle City which is only 10 miles away from South Shields  was hit pretty hard. There was no indication that this storm would die as quickly as it did, you can imagine my disappointment when a rare powerful storm is heading in your direction only to die in an instant. At least I got some great shots of a very turbulent sky.

IMG_0633.jpg

 

IMG_0634.jpg

I have never seen rain like it from that storm here in darlington roads within minutes where rivers

[Costa Del Fal]

The WRF-NMM charts only go up to early hours of Friday. Which charts are you using?

Up to Saturday morning from here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0

[Harry]

Up to Saturday morning from here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0

 

Indeed....but it appears much more keen to break out thunderstorms across a much broader area Wednesday PM/evening.

 

AAARRRRRGGGHHH its making my head hurt lol

[claret047]

I'm stuck in a hot bathroom glossing it......... Hottest day of the year and i'm stuck in the smallest room in the house....... still if I'm done by 2moz, pm, then I'll be happy!

Hi Gray Wolf.

 

trust you to put a gloss on everything!

 

Kind Regards

 

Dave

[Evening thunder]

I'm sorry but to me, for most People Friday's potential has disappeared pretty much. The nmm is awful unless your in the far SE. Can't see it changing back much now.

 

That's just based on one GFS run though (which the NMM is based on), the Met Office likes the idea of locally severe thunderstorms Friday night

 

ECM precip charts shows some activity into the south on Thursday (interestingly a clump of showery goes through Wales), and then breaks out thunderstorms for the SE and especially central northern/NE England on Friday night. Obviously this detail will likely change and the GFS could be right though..

[Lauren]

40C in mid France and Spain today. My Aunty and Uncle in Greece have been issued with a public warning this morning and businesses are being advised to remain closed.

 

I can't believe in this country we don't have a maximum working temperature like they do in many other countries. Mind you, I suppose it rarely gets hot enough.

 

Good plume food, mind.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Lauren

[Evening thunder]

The 10am forecast on news 24 was pushing potentially 35C in the SE tomorrow (and 40C around Paris!), as well as possibly locally severe storms from N Wales through Lake District area into Scotland

Edited June 30, 2015 by Evening thunder

[legritter]

Looking good potential for many i think later wednesday onwards .

Still a little early for any exact or close locations for storms ,its going to be a case of wait and radar watching ,many times at this range big surprises have turned up i,remember a storm back in the 80 s which was forecast to track n,eas, east of bath and just 8 hrs later it came crashing north across the west country with spectacular activity .I think we could have good potential late wednesday and again later friday pm .

Fax charts i,m sure will be of interest later today ,well the plume is here lets enjoy .

[Bolt from the Blue]

What are the chances of seeing some elevated storms over the SW tonight? CAPE values seem to be good from 2100.

[VillagePlank]

My take on tomorrow for the SE

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82621-southeast-england-east-anglia-weather-chat-1st-march-onwards/?p=3221541

[Summer Sun]

Thunderstorm warnings out from the met office

 

Issued at: 1026 on Tue 30 Jun 2015

Valid from: 1600 on Wed 1 Jul 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Wed 1 Jul 2015

 

Isolated heavy, and possibly severe thunderstorms are expected to develop late Wednesday afternoon across parts of Northern England and Southern Scotland. Some torrential downpours are possible leading to localised surface water flooding, with hail and frequent lightning also possible hazards. The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

By Wednesday, a hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to be in situ across much of the UK. This airmass looks conducive to isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon and into the evening. With large amounts of energy available in the atmosphere, storms could be severe, with torrential downpours and hail of up to 1cm in size. 20-30 mm of rain is possible in less than an hour, with as much as 60 mm possible in 3 hours very locally. Large uncertainty remains regarding areas most at risk from storms, and many areas will miss these altogether and stay dry. However, where they do develop, very localised significant disruption is possible.

 

Areas under the warning

 

East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire

 

Dumfries and Galloway, Scottish Borders

 

Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Wrexham

 

Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Cumbria, Greater Manchester, Halton, Lancashire, Merseyside, Warrington

 

Darlington, Durham, Gateshead, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Newcastle upon Tyne, North Tyneside, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, South Tyneside, Stockton-on-Tees, Sunderland

 

East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston upon Hull, North Lincolnshire, North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, York

 

Derbyshire

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1435705200&regionName=uk

Edited June 30, 2015 by Summer Sun