Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Harry]

Inclined to agree with CDF - while they may sustain some thunder for a time, they will quickly lose oomph I feel. Although, post frontal instability (and any residual moisture) doesn't always show on charts - hope more than expectation.

NMM and GFs charts for Friday night are a dream...which is a shame because in 60 hours if it still looks like that, that is scarily accurate

The NMM 3 and 4KM look a beaut for southern areas tomorrow morning!

I've only got 2KM and 5KM and they both look pants lol. Where can I access those charts?

[Mesosphere]

Hmm that area of rain in the Irish Sea is really starting to intensify. Not electrified yet, apart from a few trailing showers off the Lancashire coast.

 

Yeah, some nice returns appearing on the radar now, also a rash of showers breaking out over the southern uplands

 

Edit: Cells now firing near Edinburgh on the V6 1910 radar, finally some initiation happening

Edited July 1, 2015 by Mesosphere

[Harsh Climate]

Is this for midnight tonight, if I'm reading it right?

 

yes

[Havaturkali]

[Gray-Wolf]

Came out with my 'T' as it was unbearable inside and we get a sloshing down of big tropical drops from a sky that is high based and not looking at all 'rainy'????

[Paul]

Just as a reminder, those wanting to moan about the lack of storms can in the moaning thread;

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

And some handy links for those who may not know where to view models, radar etc:

 

Weather Radar

ATD lightning detection

Netwx (NMM) model

[DAVID SNOW]

It is getting warmer here gone up to 34C

 

Still 34 here too Dan, although the humidity is only around 35%

[Convective]

Storms firing up just south of here..... Pleeeeeaaase!!!

[Azazel]

I'm still counting myself in the NSC because although my back garden literally got struck by lightning last night, I was asleep and it doesnt count.

 

I'm hoping for some action on Friday night, however my gut feeling and looking at the GFS charts suggest to me an Eastward shift/direction which scream Kent-Clipper.

 

any experts care to add their opinion?

[Boro Snow]

Taken in middlesbrough earlier looking towards darlington

 

[UKSupercell]

What a plonk that man of mine is! Came rushing in house to tell me he heard thunder. So i stood about for 10 mins, hearing nothing. Then a rumble and he cocked his head to the side. "Listen!" He said. Right enough, a rumble....from the folk moving their wheelie bin across the friggin road. Aaarrggghhh

 

Ha! 

Only rumbling down my neck of the woods will come from my belly after I consume my chicken jalfrezi curry for dinner. 

 

The convection in my guts will be more explosive than the sky over Bucks at the minute. Tomorrow morning will be interesting in more ways than one....

Sorry, the hot weather has gone to my head folks. 

[matty40s]

Taken in middlesbrough earlier looking towards darlington

Those alien spaceships are photoshopped.

☺

Bay of Biscay kicking off big time now.

Edited July 1, 2015 by matty40s

[tornadomanuk]

Well it certainly looks like a second round of storms are starting to fire up in the Bay of Biscay. Hopefully they will start to head N/N-E towards us over time.

 

EDIT - Even the Faroe Island are getting storms.......what's all that about?? lol

 

EDIT 2 - It's just amazing how many ingredients goes into 'making' a thunderstorm! All these charts and all the data is mind-boggling, and it really does show that a slight change in data, even by half a number can really make or break a storm outbreak.

 

LAST EDIT (I promise!) - I also think that the atmosphere is so unstable in parts that anything can fire up at any time without warning. Who needs charts and data when the skyscape provides so much information.

Edited July 1, 2015 by tornadomanuk

[Tempest]

Taken in middlesbrough earlier looking towards darlington

 

What a great snap. Really like that

[mhielte]

Well it certainly looks like a second round of storms are starting to fire up in the Bay of Biscay. Hopefully they will start to head N/N-E towards us over time.

I wonder whether that is what GFS and NMM are picking up for tomorrows precipitation?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I've learnt these charts verify less than my cat catching a dinosaur

[Mokidugway]

Thunder heard very distant though from Irish sea cells (no pun intended :0 )....

[Darren Bown]

Shame those storms are out in the Irish Sea, just 30 miles east please

[davechesh]

Sferic south yorks/north derbs, come on!

[DanN]

I've only got 2KM and 5KM and they both look pants lol. Where can I access those charts?

 

There are a few other free to access WRF's

 

ManUniCast 4km http://manunicast.seaes.manchester.ac.uk/index.php

ModellZentralle 12 & 4km (just about covers south east England) http://www.modellzentrale.de/

RipWRF 3km https://ripwrf.info (this is my own project which has been in development for about a year)

 

All ARW cores initialised from GFS (as are the NMM's at Meteociel/Netweather etc)

[Paul]

Here are the lightning strikes so far today - quite lively for some at least!

 

[Condor Vitesse]

Nice tower going up

[Darren Bown]

There's a big tower gone up way off to my NE.

[Darren Bown]

Nice tower going up

I can probably see that from here. Very clear to my East.

[davechesh]

Nice tower going up

That's a beauty! Sodding too far north though already.... Great signs though