Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Anyone know what the trigger for these storms is? And why the models have picked nothing what so ever up on them

[mhielte]

3 strikes near portsmouth, bet someone on here heard thunder

How confident are you regarding tomorrows potential? Personally I'm hoping any storms hold off until I'm home from work at 5pm so I can get to a decent vantage point. Even better, nighttime storms would be very welcome Potential there for some strong storms though!

[Andy Bown]

Just watched the BBC forecast...where have all the thunderstorms gone?

We all know the drill, they forecast them like that recent Friday and hardly anything happens. Today they don't forecast much and things are kicking off from the Channel and onto the South coast as we speak!

[Sprites]

I remember many years back, the late, great Michael Hunt saying that widespread thunderstorms are unlikely to occur where SLP is greater than 1012mb; I call it Hunt's Law. I remember hearing that too, Handlebar moustache etc. Then we had David brookes, Peter west , jim bacon....

Edited June 30, 2015 by Sprites

[Wilxy]

What's amazing is that it's further east than forecast with nothing at all for the SW where there was a chance of something

[South coaster]

Massive clap of thunder big rain drops falling no lightning strike as yet tho

[A.J]

A bit grainy but here's the anvil from the IOW/ south coast storm from about 50 miles east

[dave reid]

Evening all.

Just got home from work and now sat in garden with stunning skies in every direction and the distant boom of thunder, and a lovely cold beer

Will post and pics I can get, here's one for now 

[Cyclonic]

Thundering here on IOW

[Harsh Climate]

How confident are you regarding tomorrows potential? Personally I'm hoping any storms hold off until I'm home from work at 5pm so I can get to a decent vantage point. Even better, nighttime storms would be very welcome Potential there for some strong storms though!

It is most unlikely that there will be any strong storms tonight.

 

At most, a few in the south will catch a heavy downpour with a few flashes of lightning.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Harsh Climate

[StormChaseUK]

That's not Portsmouth in the UK there is no bridge like that anywhere near the water, Portsmouth US maybe.

Oh what a mistaka to maka, it/s portsmouthwebcam.com not .co.uk wrong location sorry!

 

http://www.portsmouth-cam.co.uk/ that is the correct link

[radiohead]

Anyone know what the trigger for these storms is? And why the models have picked nothing what so ever up on them

 

GFS did show good instability over that part of the channel this evening. Might be a tad further east but not a huge surprise looking at this. Hope it continues through the night!

 

[Andy Pepler]

more photos of clouds and stuff    my back yard westbury wiltshire

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21280-20150630-204751-hdr/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21279-20150630-204731-hdr/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21278-20150630-204722-hdr/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21277-20150630-204703-hdr/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21276-20150630-204654-hdr/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21275-20150630-204641-hdr/

[tomp456]

Turned quite dark to the west, But am out of range for this storm unfortunately.. 

[Rain123]

I think I see a small bit of mamutus forming. 

[mhielte]

It is most unlikely that there will be any strong storms tonight.

 

At most, a few in the south will catch a heavy downpour with a few flashes of lightning.

No I mean tomorrow daytime and evening. Models suggest north England up to S Scotland in the prime firing line, but a lot of energy further W and WSW of our locations to tap into as well.

[poseidon]

a strike way inland now from the cell nr Salisbury.

[Daniel*]

Look at what we have here there was nothing much to observe 30m ago this is building to my NW/W.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Daniel*

[Chris K]

What's amazing is that it's further east than forecast with nothing at all for the SW where there was a chance of something

 

It really is now-casting now, but it is not really surprising given the 500hPa flow.

 

12z GFS for 2100hrs:

 

 

We would need these elevated storms to start forming further west to line up with our area. 

 

Winds veer southerly breakfast time tomorrow morning so unless stuff initiates to our south before it all heads North I think our best chance is Friday evening....but of course by then that will get shunted East too

Edited June 30, 2015 by Chris K

[Paul R]

Got an interesting visual on two anvils to the south at the moment, the one on the right - which as far as I can ascertain from looking at radar is dropping sferics near Portsmouth did have some mammatus on the leading edge of the anvil about ten mins ago.

[jessandjon]

What are these clouds?

[tcc]

Nice cloud formations here over Crawley, was clear an hour ago

[James 'Jamie C' Croucher]

Been following this over the channel hoping for something Weymouth/Portland way, hate it when it's firing in towards us then it veers east! However, looking rather dark outside and a strong breeze and I have a stinking headache so maybe we will see something here!

[Hirudine]

I can just see the tops of towers in the distance to the south, in the direction of Canary Wharf. No pics, sorry; our flats are still smothered in scaffolding

[Rain123]

A small, but distinct patch of mammatus clouds on the leading edge of the first anvil to my south west, just like Paul said (post 345). Not much more to say so I will report back once it starts  raining/hailing.