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Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

The hot air is arriving from the continent and those thermometers are already on the rise, indicating that our old friend, the Spanish plume is here! :yahoo:

 

Old thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/

 

post-21671-0-11608200-1435620482_thumb.j post-21671-0-67551400-1435620482_thumb.j

 

 

El penacho español ya está aquí! Disfrute del calor y los espectáculos de luces espectaculares!

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

BBC issued their 'week ahead' forecast. There is only a small chance of storms next week - that being if the low shifts south. I feel like the storm potential has been downgraded - not much to expect on Wednesday or Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Co. Down, Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning
  • Location: Co. Down, Northern Ireland

GFS is saying there will be a lot of convective precip in my location tomorrow, but the NMM shows nothing...

 

Which one is more trustworthy? :sorry:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Based on GFS and NMM together, far N Wales, NW England, N England, C/S/E/NE Scotland is the place to be Wednesday afternoon/night.

Further S it appears it will stay dry until at least Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

UKASF (Convective Weather) have issued there forecast for tomorrow:

post-18097-0-27859500-1435645579_thumb.p

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2015 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2015

ISSUED 22:43 UTC Mon 29 Jun 2015

ISSUED BY: Chris

A very warm, humid airmass with drift northwards across most of Britain by Tuesday. This in conjunction with a surface trough over northern Britain could yield CAPE values of 500-1000 Jkg-1. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as far south as N Wales, but the most likely area of thunderstorms is from SW Scotland through E Scotland during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

And to recap ESTOFEX forecast here:

post-18097-0-23652000-1435645643.txt

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Those charts are for today and this potential is not from a 'Spanish plume affair but home-grown storms.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Based on GFS and NMM together, far N Wales, NW England, N England, C/S/E/NE Scotland is the place to be Wednesday afternoon/night.

Further S it appears it will stay dry until at least Thursday.

thank you :-) Looks like I'm in a great place. 2 rounds of activity for me then, tomorrow and Friday night. Get in!
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Already pretty warm here already but I don't think I'll see anything thundery tonight which is a real shame. Why does convective inhibtion exist? :rofl:

 

Anyway, it looks like I have a better chance on Friday Night so will have to wait till then. Good luck everyone and here comes the heat! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

Northen Ireland leading the way at 21'c at Londonderr!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

yeah, already 19.2°C here with a lovely brisk warm south-easterly wind. Feels full of potential. I feel the temperatures have been slightly underestimated and therefor the cap should be broken more easily.
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

Even up here on the NE coast we are now at 17.2℃.. and the NE is favoured for storms today. I'm off to Northumberland and because of the potential we're not travelling the usual route (up the A1) but heading west then North and get into the predicted storm area.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Next Tuesday also looking interesting now.....

 

ukstormrisk.png

Edited by poseidon
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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

UKASF (Convective Weather) have issued there forecast for tomorrow:

attachicon.gif11665694_827715207312269_8851058471166732587_n.png

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2015 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2015

ISSUED 22:43 UTC Mon 29 Jun 2015

ISSUED BY: Chris

A very warm, humid airmass with drift northwards across most of Britain by Tuesday. This in conjunction with a surface trough over northern Britain could yield CAPE values of 500-1000 Jkg-1. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as far south as N Wales, but the most likely area of thunderstorms is from SW Scotland through E Scotland during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

And to recap ESTOFEX forecast here:

attachicon.gifshowforecast.cgi.png

Arnt those for today up till 0600 tomorrow ?? I am prob wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

this location is going to suck for storms, GFS has them nowhere near here, and BBC weather carol humdingers no where near here, this location sucks for decent weather always

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Arnt those for today up till 0600 tomorrow ?? I am prob wrong.

 

Yup you are correct - this is tomorrow's forecast which is pretty much exactly what I'd envisaged.

post-3790-0-24498000-1435648244_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

Arnt those for today up till 0600 tomorrow ?? I am prob wrong.

yep you are correct it's for today and overnight
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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

Yup you are correct - this is tomorrow's forecast which is pretty much exactly what I'd envisaged.

Ta, have you crossed off imports for SE Wednesday night for us Harry ??

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Here is my take on tomorrow, for a bit of fun!

 

I am not a meteorologist, trained forecaster or the like (so don't rely on this above and beyond the established sources). Might update it tomorrow depending on how the models develop through today, but that's my take based on current information.

post-3790-0-88703900-1435650215_thumb.jp

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Your take has the hot spot a little further further North than the GFS Harry. An interesting day tomorrow! 

 

ukstormrisk.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Here is my take on tomorrow, for a bit of fun!

 

I am not a meteorologist, trained forecaster or the like (so don't rely on this above and beyond the established sources). Might update it tomorrow depending on how the models develop through today, but that's my take based on current information.

 

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Never thought I would say this, but I feel like I will be too far south for the storms forecast tomorrow now!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I'm stuck in a hot bathroom glossing it......... Hottest day of the year and i'm stuck in the smallest room in the house....... still if I'm done by 2moz, pm, then I'll be happy!

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