Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Thunderbolt_

Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

Recommended Posts

The hot air is arriving from the continent and those thermometers are already on the rise, indicating that our old friend, the Spanish plume is here! :yahoo:

 

Old thread here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/

 

post-21671-0-11608200-1435620482_thumb.j post-21671-0-67551400-1435620482_thumb.j

 

 

El penacho español ya está aquí! Disfrute del calor y los espectáculos de luces espectaculares!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC issued their 'week ahead' forecast. There is only a small chance of storms next week - that being if the low shifts south. I feel like the storm potential has been downgraded - not much to expect on Wednesday or Friday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is saying there will be a lot of convective precip in my location tomorrow, but the NMM shows nothing...

 

Which one is more trustworthy? :sorry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on GFS and NMM together, far N Wales, NW England, N England, C/S/E/NE Scotland is the place to be Wednesday afternoon/night.

Further S it appears it will stay dry until at least Thursday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKASF (Convective Weather) have issued there forecast for tomorrow:

post-18097-0-27859500-1435645579_thumb.p

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2015 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2015

ISSUED 22:43 UTC Mon 29 Jun 2015

ISSUED BY: Chris

A very warm, humid airmass with drift northwards across most of Britain by Tuesday. This in conjunction with a surface trough over northern Britain could yield CAPE values of 500-1000 Jkg-1. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as far south as N Wales, but the most likely area of thunderstorms is from SW Scotland through E Scotland during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

And to recap ESTOFEX forecast here:

post-18097-0-23652000-1435645643.txt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those charts are for today and this potential is not from a 'Spanish plume affair but home-grown storms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on GFS and NMM together, far N Wales, NW England, N England, C/S/E/NE Scotland is the place to be Wednesday afternoon/night.

Further S it appears it will stay dry until at least Thursday.

thank you :-) Looks like I'm in a great place. 2 rounds of activity for me then, tomorrow and Friday night. Get in!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Already pretty warm here already but I don't think I'll see anything thundery tonight which is a real shame. Why does convective inhibtion exist? :rofl:

 

Anyway, it looks like I have a better chance on Friday Night so will have to wait till then. Good luck everyone and here comes the heat! :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

Northen Ireland leading the way at 21'c at Londonderr!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

yeah, already 19.2°C here with a lovely brisk warm south-easterly wind. Feels full of potential. I feel the temperatures have been slightly underestimated and therefor the cap should be broken more easily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stuff the storms anyone seen the temps?!?!

 

20 in central London already and 18 showing at Heathrow.. DAMN!

Even up here on the NE coast we are now at 17.2℃.. and the NE is favoured for storms today. I'm off to Northumberland and because of the potential we're not travelling the usual route (up the A1) but heading west then North and get into the predicted storm area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Northen Ireland leading the way at 21'c at Londonderr!

 

Yep confirmed thats madness given it not even 8am yet!!! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next Tuesday also looking interesting now.....

 

ukstormrisk.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKASF (Convective Weather) have issued there forecast for tomorrow:

attachicon.gif11665694_827715207312269_8851058471166732587_n.png

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2015 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2015

ISSUED 22:43 UTC Mon 29 Jun 2015

ISSUED BY: Chris

A very warm, humid airmass with drift northwards across most of Britain by Tuesday. This in conjunction with a surface trough over northern Britain could yield CAPE values of 500-1000 Jkg-1. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop as far south as N Wales, but the most likely area of thunderstorms is from SW Scotland through E Scotland during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

And to recap ESTOFEX forecast here:

attachicon.gifshowforecast.cgi.png

Arnt those for today up till 0600 tomorrow ?? I am prob wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this location is going to suck for storms, GFS has them nowhere near here, and BBC weather carol humdingers no where near here, this location sucks for decent weather always

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arnt those for today up till 0600 tomorrow ?? I am prob wrong.

 

Yup you are correct - this is tomorrow's forecast which is pretty much exactly what I'd envisaged.

post-3790-0-24498000-1435648244_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arnt those for today up till 0600 tomorrow ?? I am prob wrong.

yep you are correct it's for today and overnight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup you are correct - this is tomorrow's forecast which is pretty much exactly what I'd envisaged.

Ta, have you crossed off imports for SE Wednesday night for us Harry ??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is my take on tomorrow, for a bit of fun!

 

I am not a meteorologist, trained forecaster or the like (so don't rely on this above and beyond the established sources). Might update it tomorrow depending on how the models develop through today, but that's my take based on current information.

post-3790-0-88703900-1435650215_thumb.jp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your take has the hot spot a little further further North than the GFS Harry. An interesting day tomorrow! 

 

ukstormrisk.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is my take on tomorrow, for a bit of fun!

 

I am not a meteorologist, trained forecaster or the like (so don't rely on this above and beyond the established sources). Might update it tomorrow depending on how the models develop through today, but that's my take based on current information.

 

:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Never thought I would say this, but I feel like I will be too far south for the storms forecast tomorrow now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm stuck in a hot bathroom glossing it......... Hottest day of the year and i'm stuck in the smallest room in the house....... still if I'm done by 2moz, pm, then I'll be happy!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Spring warmth and sunshine this weekend but we've got to stay at home

    In normal times we'd be talking about the excellent timing of the sunshine and warmth coming through at the weekend. But of course,a0these aren't normal times, so even though temperatures could get to 20-21c in places tomorrow, we're all going to have to enjoy it from home. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Weather forecasting concerns as number of aircraft observations plummet

    Changes in the weather world as observations reduce from aircraft and on land in the time of global pandemic. Less initial data to input into the computer models. AMDAR AIREP Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 1
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...