July 2015 CET forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 9.2C, while maxima look like creeping just above 20C, so a drop to 17.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.5C to the 10th (17.9: +1.3)

17.5C to the 11th (17.0: +0.3)

17.4C to the 12th (16.6: +0.1)

17.4C to the 13th (17.0: +0.4)

17.3C to the 14th (16.4: -0.4)

17.1C to the 15th (13.8: -3.2)

16.8C to the 16th (13.3: -3.5)

16.8C to the 17th (16.4: +0.1)

16.6C to the 18th (13.5: -3.0)

 

The forecast has the next 10 days averaging 1.1C below average, though the big -ve anomalies come later on when reliability is low. So basically, it seem all is still to play for this month, another good warm spell could take us up to the 18s or 19s, while a cool spell could see us dip into the 15s.

 

[IanR]

if its below then all 3 summer months will be below average so far, and if we get yet another cool august thats all 4 summers months and its very possible,  the cool Atlantic must be a big factor i,   last weeks short warm spell does not make up for what i think is a rather cool summer so far

[stewfox]

if its below then all 3 summer months will be below average so far, and if we get yet another cool august thats all 4 summers months and its very possible,  the cool Atlantic must be a big factor i,   last weeks short warm spell does not make up for what i think is a rather cool summer so far

 

June, July and August are the summer months.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Summer daily CET values so far (provisional data for July).

 

[Summer Sun]

17.4c to the 9th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Rob Heselwood]

Leeds average so far for July is 16.3C, down 6 degrees on the 30 year average. We have had 5 days where the temperature was up by 4 degress C on the average.

[Lettucing Gutted]

1923 seems a close parallel of sorts although the very warm days that year experienced came in the middle of July rather than the start.From the 10th of July through to the 9th of August however the average drops from above 22C to just over 17C.  If we don't get the benefits of another plume I think it's feasible that the mean CET could drop away to such a level.

 

It's funny you mention 1923.  After looking at the CET data 1923 is the only cool summer (near sub 15C) to have a very warm July in the 17Cs.

 

Leeds average so far for July is 16.3C, down 6 degrees on the 30 year average. We have had 5 days where the temperature was up by 4 degrees C on the average.

If 16.3 is 6 degrees below average that means that Leeds get very warm Julys on average at a subtropical 22.3C!

 

Global Warming on TWO is anticipating a cet up to the 23rd of 16.67. I'm wondering if el Nino is making our Azores high weak at the moment hence our cet collapse?

If anything I'd say it's more of a case of the cool Atlantic and the return of Northern Blocking offsetting the warming effects of El Nino and weakening the Azores High and Icelandic Low.  Usually El Nino gives us warm or hot summers.

Edited July 11, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[Summer Sun]

17.4c to the 10th

 

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather26]

17.4c to the 11th

 

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 14.0C while maxima look like being around 21C, so we're likely to remain on 17.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.4C to the 13th (17.4: +0.8C compared to the 81-10 mean)

17.5C to the 14th (18.4: +1.6)

17.5C to the 15th (17.0: +0.0)

17.7C to the 16th (20.6: +3.8]

17.6C to the 17th (16.5: -0.2)

17.4C to the 18th (14.8: -1.8]

17.4C to the 19th (16.2: -0.8]

17.4C to the 20th (17.4: +0.2)

17.2C to the 21st (14.8: -2.1)

 

The cool conditions are always remaining a week away, while the near term appears to keep getting warmer. The next 10 days is now forecast to average 0.3C above the 81-10 mean, while the next 5 days could be 1.5C above average. At this early stage I think anything below 15.5C or above 19.5C can be ruled out, while 15.5-16.0 and 19.0 to 19.5C are looking very unlikely.

Edited July 12, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

17.4c to the 12th

 

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The way I see it Sam is the cet is likely to stagnate and be in a zone where it's more or less in permanent territory. Have to say as well cfs v2 have floundered with cet guesses badly lately.

 

 

Yep, no sign of sustained movement in the rolling CET for now. I'm ok with that that though, my CET guess was 17.4C!

 

Anyway, here's an update of the summer CET graph.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, as we approach mid month I'm very happy with my 17.4c too currently. Can't see it Moving far over the next week.

[DAVID SNOW]

The 17.4 club...  No counting chickens just yet  though...

[Relativistic]

Yep, no sign of sustained movement in the rolling CET for now. I'm ok with that that though, my CET guess was 17.4C!

Anyway, here's an update of the summer CET graph.

Seriously, keep it up. Your contributions to this thread are brilliant Edited July 13, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[March Blizzard]

Seriously, keep it up. Your contributions to this thread are brilliant

Agreed!

[Summer Sun]

17.3c to the 13th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Looking at the outlook it may be a struggle to beat July 2013 figure, though July 2014 figure not out of the question, lets see how things look in a week's time.

[Summer Sun]

17.3c to the 14th

 

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is 12.1C while maxima look like hitting about 20C, so a drop to 17.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.2C to the 16th (16.1: -0.7)

17.1C to the 17th (16.8: +0.5)

17.1C to the 18th (15.5: -1.0)

17.0C to the 19th (16.7: -0.2)

17.1C to the 20th (18.6: +1.4)

17.2C to the 21st (19.0: +2.1)

17.1C to the 22nd (15.8: -1.1)

17.1C to the 23rd (16.5: -0.4)

17.1C to the 24th (16.7: +0.1)

 

The next 10 days is forecast to match the 81-10 average of 16.8C, with the next 5 days being about 0.5C below average.

 

Still no clear sign as to which side of average we'll end up on, especially after corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 17.1 should be a drop after today and the low dew points indicating a cold night coming up possibly so it could be a fair drop.

[Summer Sun]

No update from Hadley so far today

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.9 getting very close to average now.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Looking at the CET data the last time there was 3 years without a sub 17C July was back in 1899-1901.  Along with 1868-1870 that is the longest run on record.  2013-2015 could well equal this.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[Summer Sun]

No update from Hadley so far today

 

EDIT

 

Now updated

 

17.1c to the 16th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited July 17, 2015 by Summer Sun