July 2015 CET forecasts

[Yarmy]

An interesting month from a stats point of view, split into 3 distinct periods: the warm first 4 days averaging 3.8C above the 81-10 average, then a close to average 18 days (-0.4C anomaly) followed by a cool final 9 days (-3.6C anomaly). The warmest day, 24.6C on the 1st, was 8.7C above average, while the coolest day, 12.7C on the 31st, was 4.5C below average (but not the coolest day anomaly-wise, which was 12.8C on the 29th, 4.9C below average).

 

Below is the daily CET corrections, followed by the summer CET so far compared to the record's averages and extremes.

 

 

 

 

 

A few stats, July 2015:

 

• The joint 3rd warmest July day on record (24.6C)
• The joint 4th warmest CET day on record (24.6C)
• The 3rd warmest maximum on record (32.7C)
• The earliest date to record a daily CET of greater than 23.0C, 23.5C, 24.0C, and 24.5C.
• First to record 3 or more days below 13.0C in July since 1997
• First to record 3 or more days below 13.0C during the last week of July since 1920
• The 8th coldest last week of July on record, and coldest since 1920
• 5th coldest July minimum on record, 5.4C on the 31st
• The joint 10th biggest July drop from the first half to the second half of the month (-2.5C)
• 3rd largest difference between the highest and lowest daily average for any July on record (11.9C)
• Largest range on record between the July highest max and lowest minimum (27.3C)

 

If anyone has any questions or requests for specific stats, feel free to ask and I'll do my best!

 

EDIT: I'll add in more stats during the day if I find them and put the new ones in italics.

 

Bravo to yourself, Roger and WH. It must surely by the largest range on record for any 30 day period. The anomaly range must be even more stark given the mean warming trend during July.

[Cheese Rice]

BBC weather yesterday said the lowest min on record for July was recorded at 1.c in Southern England.

A pretty remarkable month of summer and winter conditions.

[Dancerwithwings]

So July was confirmed as 15.9C, i was miles out at 2.6c above....18.5c

But i wasn't the only one!  11 entries was within 1.0c of the 15.9C CET

but a huge 60 of us was more than 1.0c above.

 

I must admit i got carried away at the start of the month with the heatwave (well a few days if that) thinking the rest of the month would be 

How wrong i was Oh-well! lets see what August brings us

[J10]

I think a few people got caught out by July.

 

The full Results for July will follow in the next few days.

 

However well done to weatherguru14 who was closest only 0.1c out with most players over estimating the July figure.

Edited August 1, 2015 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

See post 239 for the official new July record in the table of extreme decreases from 1st to average of month CET. July has more or less matched winter months and almost caught October despite a 3 deg advantage in terms of background normal change in CET.

[IanR]

Final Hadley July CET is 15.9 (15.91).  So we are just below the 1961-90 average.  Although even by recent standards this is not unusual with the Julys of 2007, 2011 and 2012 all cooler than 2015.  Further back the Julys of 1993, 1998, 2000 and 2004 were also cooler.  July 2015 has been what you may call a "pear shaped" summer month - much like a summer version of February 2009.  July 2015 started with a notable heatwave and it remained on the warm side for much of the first half and then a spell of notably cool weather in the later part of the month put the overall mean slightly below average in the end despite such a notable heatwave at the start.

 

July 2015 also had a cooler second half than the first - a rarity in recent times.  This has only happened in 2009, 2007, 2005, 1987, 1986, 1985 in the last 30 years although I am not so sure before that.

but how unusual is it to be lumped in with a summer where every other month is also below average, incuding may, which I consider the latter half to be summer,

ok we have not had august yet , but its looking not to be a particularly warm one after the brief, 'blink and miss' warm spell in the south for the start of the week , another below average one ?  quite likely

[J10]

I think a few people got caught out by July.

 

The full Results for July will follow in the next few days.

 

However well done to weatherguru14 who was closest only 0.1c out with most players over estimating the July figure.

 

So the top 3 this month were

1. weatherguru14 (0.1c out)

2. 22nov10blast (0.3c)

3. IanR (0.4c)

 

The Seasonal comp sees a top 3 of

1. simshady

2. IanR

3 .Weather26

 

While overall the top 4 remains the same, but with a slight change in order.

 

1. BornFromTheVoid (was 1st)

2. Weather26 (was 3rd)

3. summer blizzard (was 4th)

4. DiagonalRedLine (was 2nd)

 

But still very close.

 

Full details

 

July 2015 CET.xls

 

July 2015 CET.pdf

 

Stat Zone

 

Baseline (1981-2010)       16.7

Actual CET                        15.9

Average Entry                   17.8

Difference                          -1.9

Correlation                        0.29

 

With the positive correlation showing that earlier entries did better, in many ways not surprising as many later entries were fooled that the very warm start to July was last, how wrong many of us were. 

 

To prove this point the best quartile of entries was the 1st quartile scoring 66% compared to the average of 50.5%.

Edited August 2, 2015 by J10

[summer blizzard]

Glory.

[damianslaw]

Oh dear after a respectable few guesses this year, things have slipped markedly for me this summer, hoping my August guess is nearer the mark, far too many of us went high in July getting fooled by the 1 day heatwave!