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July 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum of 14.9C and maxima around 21C, we should see an increase 17.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.1C to the 18th (15.8: -0.7)
17.1C to the 19th (16.3: -0.6)
17.0C to the 20th (15.9: -1.3)
17.1C to the 21st (19.0: +2.1)
17.1C to the 22nd (17.7: +0.8]
17.1C to the 23rd (17.6: +0.7)
17.1C to the 24th (15.4: -1.2)
17.0C to the 25th (15.0: -2.0)
17.0C to the 26th (16.3: -0.9)
 
The next 5 days look like averaging about 0.2C above the 81-10 average, but once more, colder conditions forecast further out could bring the 10 day average just below the 81-10 mean.
 
Either way, at this stage I'd say anything above 18.5C or below 15.5C can be ruled out.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

 

With a minimum of 14.9C and maxima around 21C, we should see an increase 17.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.1C to the 18th (15.8: -0.7)
17.1C to the 19th (16.3: -0.6)
17.0C to the 20th (15.9: -1.3)
17.1C to the 21st (19.0: +2.1)
17.1C to the 22nd (17.7: +0.8]
17.1C to the 23rd (17.6: +0.7)
17.1C to the 24th (15.4: -1.2)
17.0C to the 25th (15.0: -2.0)
17.0C to the 26th (16.3: -0.9)
 
The next 5 days look like averaging about 0.2C above the 81-10 average, but once more, colder conditions forecast further out could bring the 10 day average just below the 81-10 mean.
 
Either way, at this stage I'd say anything above 18.5C or below 15.5C can be ruled out.

 

And, even for my 18.1 to be remotely close, it'd need a colossally scorching last five days! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

C'mon 16.5C.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.9C and should be further small drops in the coming days. So should be down to average shortly.

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

It's hard to believe that my average July temperature was a record-breaking 27.0C on the 1st! Now it's descended to a very bog-standard 16.4C to the 16th.

its not hard to believe as far as I am concerned, tbh,  I had a feeling the heatwave at the beginning of the month was just going to be a 3 day wonder in this fairly coolish summer  so far imo ,

 

 What I found  hard to believe is we actually got to 30c  :laugh:

 

  just so happens the pattern all came together just at the right time, a few thing fell into place , but this summer is being effected too much by the cool attlantic ,  there is a good chance even july could end up below the 81-2010 average for here anyway, that would be 3 months on the trot below average and I think the cool atlantic will have an effect on august, which have tented to be  meh  over the last several years

 

if the cool atlantic is going to be a long term trend, then I fear for our future summers,  make the most of any rare heat is what I say , we are not going to get those hotter summers we keep getting lamented on since for ever it seems  ... STILL waiting  :closedeyes:

Edited by IanR
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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon

its not hard to believe as far as I am concerned, tbh,  I had a feeling the heatwave at the beginning of the month was just going to be a 3 day wonder in this fairly coolish summer  so far imo ,

 

 What I found  hard to believe is we actually got to 30c  :laugh:

 

  just so happens the pattern all came together just at the right time, a few thing fell into place , but this summer is being effected too much by the cool attlantic ,  there is a good chance even july could end up below the 81-2010 average for here anyway, that would be 3 months on the trot below average and I think the cool atlantic will have an effect on august, which have tented to be  meh  over the last several years

 

if the cool atlantic is going to be a long term trend, then I fear for our future summers,  make the most of any rare heat is what I say , we are not going to get those hotter summers we keep getting lamented on since for ever it seems  ... STILL waiting  :closedeyes:

Do you know what is causing this very cold pool of water? Is it ice melt from Greenland?

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

Do you know what is causing this very cold pool of water? Is it ice melt from Greenland?

very possible  , some threads about this and related subjects in the climate and environment section of the forum  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

No update from Hadley so far today

Really, SS? Are you sure? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

No update from Hadley yet but Global Warming over on TWO has the CET at 17.09C up-to yesterday with a final figure of 16.28C

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

No update from Hadley yet but Global Warming over on TWO has the CET at 17.09C up-to yesterday with a final figure of 16.28C

 

With a downward correction on that we could end up below the 61-90 average! That would be amazing, to record the warmest ever July temperature in a month that turned out to be below average.

 

Having said that, absolutely nothing is certain at this stage and I reckon we are much, much more likely to end up above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

No update from Hadley yet but Global Warming over on TWO has the CET at 17.09C up-to yesterday with a final figure of 16.28C

 

My own estimate would be 17.10C, so pretty close agreement there.

 

With a downward correction on that we could end up below the 61-90 average! That would be amazing, to record the warmest ever July temperature in a month that turned out to be below average.

 

Having said that, absolutely nothing is certain at this stage and I reckon we are much, much more likely to end up above average.

 

The 06z GFS would have us at below the 81-10 average by the 25th, with the next 10 days averaging 1.9C below.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Glory to my summer CET forecast. Not a single analogue went above average and while i wavered, it's come off.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Good cahnce of another below average month but not yet sealed plenty of time for the models change as they have from heat so cold conditions can be just as easily swept away in the next few runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Glory to my summer CET forecast. Not a single analogue went above average and while i wavered, it's come off.

 

Hmm The start of the last month of summer is still 12 days away...Congratulations would come on the 1st of September, not on the 19th of July :nonono:  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

Hmm The start of the last month of summer is still 12 days away...Congratulations would come on the 1st of September, not on the 19th of July :nonono:  :D

Can we Make that August 31st when another rainy Bank Holiday happens (and the last day of Summer)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Can we Make that August 31st when another rainy Bank Holiday happens (and the last day of Summer)

 

Well of course you can. But be prepared for a country wide glorious late summer bank holiday :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Todays minimum is 11.2C, while maxima look like reaching into the 22s, so we'll probably remain on 17.0C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.0C to the 21st (16.4: -0.5)
16.9C to the 22nd (15.5: -1.4)
16.8C to the 23rd (14.2: -2.8]
16.6C to the 24th (11.9: -4.7) (Record low, 11.1C, 1843)
16.5C to the 25th (14.9: -2.1)
16.4C to the 26th (13.9: -3.4)
16.4C to the 27th (15.5: -1.7)
16.3C to the 28th (13.7: -3.8]
16.2C to the 29th (13.3: -4.5)
 
A very chilly 06z GFS today, averaging 1.9C below the 81-10 average over the next 5 days, and 2.5C below over the next 10. If it's accurate, we'll be below the 81-10 average by the 25th, and just 0.2C above the 61-90 average by the 29th.
Odds are now in favour of finishing below the 81-10 average with a range of 15.5C to 17.5C at this stage.
 
 
Here's how the summer CET compares to the averages and extremes so far, July data is provisional.
 
Qi1KaFD.png
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No change for sunny Sheffield in the last two days but today will bring us below average tomorrow how much depends on how cool the night is. Interestingly only 3 days it hasn't rained yet is a very dry month.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Expecting the CET to fall a bit over the next few days thanks to cool maxima and minima, we may not be too far off average come this time next week. Flaming June, sizzlingJuly, not this year - both distinctly very average, and in my book 2 average summer months don't make a good summer overall!, August will have to be exceptional if we are to class summer 2015 as a good one overall, for the SE if this occurs then yes fully justified, for the north, no, as apart from the anomaly that was the 1 July there has been a complete absence so far of anything noteworthy in the warmth department and rainfall and sunshine totals have been not too far off average. though granted far from the washouts of some recent summers.

 

At this range a finish somewhere in the mid 16's could be a likely landing point and we can't rule out the possibility of a below average month if we go with the 81/10 average.

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