July 2015 CET forecasts

[Methuselah]

A provisional 18.1, please...

[Wynn D Woo]

I'll punt a 17.3C please

[Robbie Garrett]

20.1*C

[Godber 1]

16.8c for me please

[stewfox]

18.3c

[Dancerwithwings]

18.5C Bring it on

[sundog]

17.6c for me please

[BornFromTheVoid]

There might be a chance of breaking some records at the start of July.

 

The record high mean temps for first 2 days are:

 

1st 22.9C

2nd 22.8C

 

The 06z GFS has the min and max for the 1st as about 16.4C and 30C, giving an average 23.2C. That's a record for the day, and into the top 20 warmest days on record for July.

For the moment, the record for the 2nd looks safe, but this could change easily with just a slight westward shift in the heat.

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎27‎/‎06‎/‎2015 at 2:20 PM, BornFromTheVoid said:

There might be a chance of breaking some records at the start of July.

 

The record high mean temps for first 2 days are:

 

1st 22.9C

2nd 22.8C

UK warming is back with a vengeance.  The warmest year on record (2014) followed by more summer heat records. 

Edited January 20, 2016 by IHaveNoTrueFriendsNow!

[Summer Sun]

18.7c for me please

[jonboy]

17.5 for me please

[The PIT]

I'm going for 17.1C just above normal.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Can I go for a warm/ hot 18.8C please.

Think after 10 days it will be about 20C, but last half likely to be about average.

MIA

[Stationary Front]

The summer month version of December 2010. Almost the record but for a less hot last few days so a sultry 19.6 please

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.4C for me thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

18.5C for me, so warmer than July 2013.

Whilst the heatwave may be brief into the start of July, we do seem to have had a fundamental shift in the longwave pattern since the week just gone with the persistent Atlantic high gone and replaced by a trough in the same location, as of yet I see no reason for this to shift back to the May/June scenario. As such I suspect temperatures will be on the warm or very warm side throughout with temperatures near normal being the low point during  this month and potentially rare in the south where I suspect the heat from the continent will be influential for a fair amount of the time.

I expect plume events to make a regular appearance on the model thread, whether they verify or not is another matter, but overall a very good month ahead I suspect. Unlike 2013 and 2006 I suspect rainfall will be near normal compared to the dryness of the two years I mentioned, there could be large local variation as the rainfall could be localised and torrential with thundery downpours commonplace.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[virtualsphere]

17.9C please

[leehws]

18.6C please

[Milhouse]

17.8c

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mainly warm 17.7C

[cheese]

It's funny to see people's expectations really high for July this year but in 2013, people were predicting CET values as low as 13-14C! Nobody saw how good that month would turn out at the time.

 

I wonder if the reverse will happen this year too? Hopefully not!

[matty007]

Despite the first week's plume I don't expect this month to be as warm as many, including me, are hoping for. I don't see HP becoming settled over the UK and think it will be a mixed bag with the odd warm day and average for the remainder. 

 

I'll go slightly lower than 2014 at 17.5 

[Costa Del Fal]

I will up my guess to 17.4c please.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Daniel*]

I wish to revise my 19.1C upwards and onwards to 20.1C in the hope the initial plume will be followed by an another of a similar scale with a longer duration after a week or so of cooler conditions.

[Thundery wintry showers]

18.1C

Edited June 28, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers