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Roger J Smith

July 2015 CET forecasts

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CET averages and extremes

 

 

25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean

 

19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July)

19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest)

 

18.8 ... 1783 (3rd warmest)

18.7 ... 1976, 1852 (tied 4th warmest)

18.6 ... 1995 (6th warmest)

18.3 ... 2013 mean (tied 9th warmest)

 

17.7 ... 2014 mean (tied 31st warmest)

 

16.8 ... average for 2001-2014

16.7 ... average for 1981-2010

16.5 ... average for 1971-2000

16.1 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800

16.0 ... average for all years 1659-2014

 

15.8 ... average for 1801-1900

15.6 ... average for 1659-1700

15.5 ... 2012 mean (as of 2014, 126 were colder, 206 warmer, 23 others tied)

 

14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest)

13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest)

13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest)

13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July)

 

 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean

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Enter your forecast by the 30th to avoid penalties, or by 3rd of July to qualify.

 

Posting this a day early because of the impending weekend.

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My analogue based forecast was most confident that July would be below the 1981-2010 average with a range of 14.7-16.5C. June has not given me much reason to back away from that although pressure does seem to want to ridge in to the south rather than a 07/12 setup of Channel Lows, this will probably moderate any protracted abnormal cool spells and i expect a wetter month than this one. I'll definitely go for 15.7-16.5C i think. 

 

Put me down for 16.5C for now. 

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15.7 please.

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 another cooler than average 15.5, the cold atlantic will still have a say

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I think that we will continue the north westerly or northerly regeme and with SST's below normal I am plumbing for 14.8, well below average CET. For the northern part of scotland ( where I happen to live) the below average anomaly will be even more pronounced, probably at least 3 degrees Celsius below normal. Sorry!

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I have a strong feeling this is going to be a hot July 19.1C please

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I have a strong feeling this is going to be a hot July 19.1C please

haha, you've just  jinxed july, now we will have to endure another cool nwesterly stratus fest :rolleyes:  , damn you :p  

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20C  :(  Last sub 14C July in 1922.  Last sub 15C July in 1988.  Last sub 15.5C July in 2011.

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16.5c  going to be a average or below summer.

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Below is the July CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

bQ61MPn.png

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 13.4 and 14.2C after corrections. The average July following Junes within that range is 15.8C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.2C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.53C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.5C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.95C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.9C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +2.46C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 17.1C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +1.47C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.9C.

 

The 30 year average July CET reached it's peak in 2010 at 16.71C. We are now beginning to leave a run of relatively cool July CETs, (16.2, 15.9, 15.9, 14.7, from 1985-1988), so the 30 year average may well creep up again. Anything above 18.1C for this year will give us a new record high 30 year average.

 

It's been 26 years since we last had a CET below 15C. This isn't the longest spell without such a cool July though. That record is 31 years, set between 1923 and 1953.

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Will go for 17.2*C, please. All that needs to happen now is for someone to bring a ginormous bucket of boiling water and pour it into the cooler than average North Atlantic seas...

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Going for a statisicailly based guess.....and working on the assumption that the mean CET for June will end up around 14C.

This would make it the first time in 216 years that each of the first six months of the year have been at least !C degree colder than the previous year's corresponding month.

In terms of all six months being colder, irrespective of how much colder, there have been 11 such previous occurences in the past 350 years...1663, 1687, 1729, 1740, 1795, 1799. 1823, 1860, 1879, 1951, and 1991. On average these years produced a July that was 1.2C colder than the previous year's. Using that criteria would generate a guess of 16.50C

However I'm going to concentrate on the pattern of the post war years. In the two years in the above sequence that occur after 2WW...namely 1951 and 1991...both registered Julys which were 0.4C higher than the previous year. So I'm going to go for the more optimistic slant to the stats and put my guess at a toasty 18.1C

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haha, you've just  jinxed july, now we will have to endure another cool nwesterly stratus fest :rolleyes:  , damn you :p

I have no regrets whatsoever *snarl*. I'll have the last laugh :laugh:

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20.2C for me please. ;-)>

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