The decline in thunder days.

[Windblade]

Glad to see those figures back up my thoughts too, and that this isn't all in my head. The 80's and 90's and to some extent the first few years of the 00's I remember being pretty decent for storms around here. Since then we have definitely been on a decline. The last few years have been pretty bad by comparison with the low point being 2016, although this year has been an exception in that its been pretty decent (I've even missed out on three storms right over my house this year, so that's another three to add to the tally had I had witnessed them).

[Weather-history]

November now and nothing this autumn so far.

[Mokidugway]

8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

November now and nothing this autumn so far.

It's been shocking apart from loads of rumblefarts ,October usually delivers a belter here 

[Dami]

This year was pretty standard here, one huge storm ( and an extra one a few hours later), a few bangs and that's it one morning and  one that you could hear but it missed us.  

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

One of Philip Eden's books had stats for average thunder frequency over England and Wales by month going back to the 1910s.  July and August became drier, sunnier and less thundery after the 1980s and June followed suit in the 2000s, and it would appear that the subsequent cloudier and wetter summers weren't accompanied by a similar recovery in thunderstorms.  This does hide some regional variation though- around Newcastle there was an increase in thunderstorms around 2003-2012, while in Kent and Sussex there has been a further decline since the 1990s.

This year in Exeter there was a big overnight thunderstorm on 19 July, the biggest that I've experienced since the Norwich thunderstorm of 18 July 2012, but apart from that, only the odd distant rumble.

[Terminal Moraine]

There's certainly been a remarkable absence of thunder here this year with just 3 days with thunder heard and no storms directly affecting the station.

The previous lowest number of thunder days ( since 1963) was 7 in 1978 and 1995 so unless November and December are unusually thundery that record looks well and truly broken.

[Dami]

don't remember any thunder at this time of year here, although a few years back we had thunder in January.

[Mokidugway]

Definitely a decrease in storms in the uk but the ones we do get seem to be more violent and often supercellular afterall they where first identified in the uk sky's .

[Terminal Moraine]

The table below shows the average number of days with thunder heard at my location for each month from April to September in each decade from the 60s to present. The 60s covers only the years 1964-69 and the 10s from 2010 up to 2017

                      60s       70s         80s           90s         00s            10s

April               2.5        0.4          1.1            0.7          1.1             0.5

May               4.3        2.4          2.9            2.0          1.8             0.3

June              3.5        2.2          3.3            3.1          1.8             1.7

July               2.5        2.3          2.4             1.6          3.1            1.9

August          3.8        2.3          1.5             2.6          3.3            1.3

September   1.3        1.1           1.2            0.9           0.9            0.5

Total            15.4      10.7        12.4           10.9         12.0          6.2

Notable features are how thundery the 60s were, particularly May, and the dramatic decline in thunder days in the current decade.

[johnholmes]

Those are impressive statistics TM. I felt there had been a decline in this area but felt unable to make any comment about it as it also coincides with my increasing deafness! But the number of times I have seen lightning has certainly decreased over the last 20 years of observing at home

[davehsug]

4 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

The table below shows the average number of days with thunder heard at my location for each month from April to September in each decade from the 60s to present. The 60s covers only the years 1964-69 and the 10s from 2010 up to 2017

                      60s       70s         80s           90s         00s            10s

April               2.5        0.4          1.1            0.7          1.1             0.5

May               4.3        2.4          2.9            2.0          1.8             0.3

June              3.5        2.2          3.3            3.1          1.8             1.7

July               2.5        2.3          2.4             1.6          3.1            1.9

August          3.8        2.3          1.5             2.6          3.3            1.3

September   1.3        1.1           1.2            0.9           0.9            0.5

Total            15.4      10.7        12.4           10.9         12.0          6.2

Notable features are how thundery the 60s were, particularly May, and the dramatic decline in thunder days in the current decade.

Interesting stats TM. Being within a few miles of me, they're quite relevant. If the 2010s are going to get up to the average of 10-12 after the 60s, the next couple of years will need to be fairly spectacular, something approaching 30 each year!

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

The table below shows the average number of days with thunder heard at my location for each month from April to September in each decade from the 60s to present. The 60s covers only the years 1964-69 and the 10s from 2010 up to 2017

                      60s       70s         80s           90s         00s            10s

April               2.5        0.4          1.1            0.7          1.1             0.5

May               4.3        2.4          2.9            2.0          1.8             0.3

June              3.5        2.2          3.3            3.1          1.8             1.7

July               2.5        2.3          2.4             1.6          3.1            1.9

August          3.8        2.3          1.5             2.6          3.3            1.3

September   1.3        1.1           1.2            0.9           0.9            0.5

Total            15.4      10.7        12.4           10.9         12.0          6.2

Notable features are how thundery the 60s were, particularly May, and the dramatic decline in thunder days in the current decade.

Thanks for these stats. 

Question is why has May figures collapsed?

[Terminal Moraine]

7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Thanks for these stats. 

Question is why has May figures collapsed?

A good question. I thought at first a change in the frequency of winds from a certain direction might be having some influence but an examination of the wind direction data gives no answers.

The Mays of the 60s were notable for an absence of winds from NE/E compared with other decades but the 70s had the most frequent winds from NE/E and the average number of thunder days was 8 times what it is in May in the current decade so nothing proved there.

 Perhaps a change in the frequency of certain air masses is to blame? I do have H.H Lamb's data for the frequency of air masses up to the late 1990s but not for the last 20 years or so, so cannot compare with recent decades.  

[Speedway Slider]

Leicester has had  a virtually thunderless year (2017) I cannot remember a single storm that was ours (less than 4 miles away) Sure, we had a couple of grazers, storms that slipped by in the distance, but cannot recall any that would have had me outside sitting in the car.... 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Speedway Slider
Autocorrect!!

[Weather-history]

On 01/11/2017 at 08:13, Weather-history said:

November now and nothing this autumn so far.

Its now into April and nothing at all this year so far at least around this area. 

[Daniel*]

Can’t remember the last time I had T&L might have been last summer a really bad drought it’s been poor since summer of 2013 or 14.. this location should do well but it’s been abysmal for a long stretch. 

Edited April 10, 2018 by Daniel*

[IanR]

unusual not to get at least a weak thundery shower by this stage ,  we had one solitary rumble in january. before that last thunder heard was sometime in the summer of 2017 I think, very very poor

[Mokidugway]

Interesting that the decline in thunder days coincides (sort of) with the decline of uk based heavy industries and heavy domestic coal use ,be interesting to know if there's a link in airborne particulates and the formation of cumulonimbi ??

[lassie23]

21 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Interesting that the decline in thunder days coincides (sort of) with the decline of uk based heavy industries and heavy domestic coal use ,be interesting to know if there's a link in airborne particulates and the formation of cumulonimbi ??

bring back coal

[IanR]

Not sure if its just been down to bad luck but there has been an astonishing absence of thunder here the last 12 months , never known it as poor, and I am in my 40's 

last thunder I heard was in May 2017, incredible,  normally we would see at least several thundery showers /storms, over the course of 12 months 

well we did in the nineties,  yet other areas are seeing their usual quotas , somethings up here, but it doesn't make sense , it must be bad luck , very bad luck

Edited April 28, 2018 by IanR

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

On 16/04/2018 at 19:43, Mokidugway said:

Interesting that the decline in thunder days coincides (sort of) with the decline of uk based heavy industries and heavy domestic coal use ,be interesting to know if there's a link in airborne particulates and the formation of cumulonimbi ??

It also coincides with the introduction and evolution of electronic music, notably techno and trance which reached a peak in 2002.

Since then storm events have dwindled ?

I blame Ian Van Dahl

[Evening thunder]

It feels like there has been a slight increase from 2012 onwards here, in comparison to 2007-11, (though I remember one nice event May 2011 thinking about it)

I can remember major storm outbreaks across the UK every year from 2012 onward, usually more than one, though they don't affect everywhere of course.

In late May last year I saw the most frequent, but distant lightning I've seen. New flashes every 1-2 seconds, constant strobe lightning to the SW and W. A decent thunderstorm skirted us in July. We had a few weaker events and then some activity at the end of Dec 2017 and early Jan 2018 too. Of course there was last weekend too, although that mostly went around me.

Despite this there seems to have been a genuine decrease shown in stats like those from TM. I have wondered if cleaner air might play a role.. not sure how significant that is compared to e.g. more plume events missing us to the east.
There's definitely a lot of studies on the link between aerosol loading and lightning production (via changed cloud properties, even along shipping lanes).
However whether aerosols cause 'new' thunder events as opposed to increasing flash frequency in storms that would exist anyway, I'm not sure without doing further reading.

[Mokidugway]

On 28/04/2018 at 10:18, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It also coincides with the introduction and evolution of electronic music, notably techno and trance which reached a peak in 2002.

Since then storm events have dwindled ?

I blame Ian Van Dahl

Avicii is dead so there maybe a further increase in storm activity in the coming years ....

[Storm_Front_81]

This is my first time posting on here but want to add that storms in my area seem to be increasing and becoming more intense of late in the East Midland, particularly along the Northamptonshire Leicestershire border I live in Leicestershire.

Here are some memorable storms, which I have seen in recent years, I don't have exact dates apart from one or two.

June 2002, strong locally severe thunderstorms head North from the SW W/large hail, frequent lightning.

May 2004 strong overnight thunderstorms moved in from the SE frequent lightning there were some spectacular CG lightning.

July 2004 strong convective singular thunderstorm develops late afternoon again frequent lightning, flash flooding in Market Harborough town centre, (Same year Boscastle recorded 200mm of rain major flooding)

July 18th 2006 On the same day Gravesend reached 38c? That night in East Midlands temp fell no lower then 22c In Leicestershire. Severe electrical storms/thunderstorms break out quite widely across SE England moving North and last alnight. frequent CG lightning and spectacular CC lightning not much rainfall total. (Just to add to this I don't have prove off this but there were unconfirmed reports that temperature peaked at 40c+ across several locations across Central England? 

*Note* Only reason I remember this is because it was the first week I started my current job.

June 11th or 12th? 2011 Unfortunately where I live I missed the so called supercell storms in which supposedly spawned several funnel clouds/, across Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire. Newcastle was also effected including Sheffield by flash flooding.

July 2014 strong convective thunderstorms, developed 10PM onwards frequent lightning. after several hot days peaking at 31c. 

July 3rd 2015 widespread severe electrical storms/thunderstorms developed over much of SE England moving North after a 3 day heatwave I remember how static the air was on this particular night, frequent CG lightning. Many areas of Northern England was hit on 1st July, I watched as these storms developed over the East Midlands.

August 27th 2016 severe thunderstorms moved in from the SW heading NE not much rain but frequent spectacular CG lightning yet again very loud frequent thunder aswell lasted about 1hr.

In 2017 only a couple of weak storms during July and September nothing severe as I can recall. There was however a cracking convective storm over East Anglia one night in July with frequent high level lightning.

2018 the only storms I can recall accured during the beginning of January so far, not evan the warm periods of April and more recently in May produce any thunderstorms this year so far has been dull.

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

On 04/11/2017 at 19:33, Terminal Moraine said:

The table below shows the average number of days with thunder heard at my location for each month from April to September in each decade from the 60s to present. The 60s covers only the years 1964-69 and the 10s from 2010 up to 2017

                      60s       70s         80s           90s         00s            10s

April               2.5        0.4          1.1            0.7          1.1             0.5

May               4.3        2.4          2.9            2.0          1.8             0.3

June              3.5        2.2          3.3            3.1          1.8             1.7

July               2.5        2.3          2.4             1.6          3.1            1.9

August          3.8        2.3          1.5             2.6          3.3            1.3

September   1.3        1.1           1.2            0.9           0.9            0.5

Total            15.4      10.7        12.4           10.9         12.0          6.2

Notable features are how thundery the 60s were, particularly May, and the dramatic decline in thunder days in the current decade.

It doesn't look like this May is going to nudge the May figures up.