First 30C - where and when?

[cheese]

I think your side of the Pennines is more prone to the warmer temperatures in summer, Cheese. Quite often when you look at a coloured temperature map of the UK the oranges and yellows can spread quite far north up the eastern side of the Pennines, with my side typically coloured in greens/yellows. I guess in many ways the heat escapes the south and moves north unimpeded in the eastern half of the country, the northwest, being closer to the Atlantic and relatively sheltered usually escapes the "worst" of the heat.

 

30C here is by no means impossible, and I wouldn't even say it's exceptional as such, but it is pretty rare.

Yes, you're right - though with a SE wind places on the coasts of NW England and Wales can record some rather high maxima.

[Summer Sun]

It looks like it will be Tuesday for the first 30c

 

[damianslaw]

Good chance Heathrow could hit 30 degrees on Tuesday, but most likely Wednesday. Many places in central/SE England up towards Yorkshire likely to hit 30 degrees at least on Wednesday. Cities such as Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham, Norwich and Cambridge likely to hit 30 degrees. Manchester and Bristol a 50/50 chance.

 

Scotland, much of NW England, Wales and SW England probably see maxes mid-high 20's.

 

Its rare to hit 30 degrees here in an average year, average absolute maximum usually about 27/28 degrees. I'm not expecting 30 degrees here.

[reef]

I think your side of the Pennines is more prone to the warmer temperatures in summer, Cheese. Quite often when you look at a coloured temperature map of the UK the oranges and yellows can spread quite far north up the eastern side of the Pennines, with my side typically coloured in greens/yellows. I guess in many ways the heat escapes the south and moves north unimpeded in the eastern half of the country, the northwest, being closer to the Atlantic and relatively sheltered usually escapes the "worst" of the heat.

 

30C here is by no means impossible, and I wouldn't even say it's exceptional as such, but it is pretty rare.

 

30C is quite rare here in the east though aswell, in fact we haven't hit it here since August 2001. July 2006 and June 2011 came close with 29.9C and 29.7C, but even the spell in August 2003 didn't manage it.

 

To put it in perspective, if you take out 3rd August 1990 (34.0C), no other day in the last 36 years has hit above 30.8C.

Edited June 28, 2015 by reef

[Daniel*]

Tuesday 1st of July fairly certain, I'd say in a number of locations 30c will be obtained.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Although some alterations are still possible regarding how warm and hot the temperatures could be, the GFS (06Z version) does show a good chance of places, particularly towards South-Eastern UK, achieving the magic 30*C mark for 1st July.

Though since the GFS can apparently under-estimate warm temperatures a little, maybe some odd spots in the East and South-East could reach 32/33/34*C.