Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Speedway Slider]

I wonder if this Wednesday will go like the way 1st August 1999 went?

[Darren Bown]

For us in the north, Wednesday's chances hangs all on the positioning of the cold front and trough ahead of it to utilise those currently amazing cape and LI values.

[Staffordshire]

So I'll be out chasing Wednesday, not sure whether to head directly west towards shrewsbury/Welsh border or maybe due north towards Stoke ir even to head NE?

Any thoughts as it will be my first 'proper' chase

[IanR]

not having any of it lol,

 

 severe storms for nw England starting tommorrow evening , haha what a laugh , it really is too good to be true and probably is,     what I really expect is maybe an isloated thundery shower or two during the early morning running up the irish sea, or even over the greater manchester area (if we are lucky), then as the*thundery*  area moves east during the day is when the proper storms get going leaving the nw is slight cooler stable air later on wednseday ....  just me guessing at past experiences of the last few years,  i would put money on this boring senario for the nw 

 

if I am wrong can i have cream with my humble pie ...

well just looked at the bbc forecast after posting this ,  and lo and behold, i was right,  no storms tomorrow night, just a chance of some showers around the early hours of wednesday morning , you guessrd... running up the Irish sea coast ,  then the main chance later as the trough moves EAST, we know the script on that one lol 

then again looks like another chance at the weekend,  lots of lighting graphics over the coming week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33321934

[Ben Sainsbury]

This isn't quite right, insofar as a lack of moisture would not aid instability (when you add the moisture below a lid of dry air and heat it, like a pressure cooker, you get the instability). I would say you are correct as regards the dry air over Spain hence lack of storms. When you get a Spanish Plume the instability is generated by the Spanish plateau and the Pyrenees to the north of Spain. The dry air is forced up over higher ground, while moisture feeds in underneath it from the Med and the Bay of Biscay. This then generates a huge pressure cooker over northern Spain, Portugal and in particular France. This drifts northwards or northeastwards - when a trough, front, jet streak, convergence zone or flabby low enables it to rocket up through the atmosphere, you get pretty active thunderstorms.

At the moment over France there is merely heat and instability - lacking is any real trigger to break the 'lid' of dry air to allow storms to develop - if you look at the FAX chart the fresher, dry air trigger is way out west so the pressure cooker simply builds. Through Wednesday and beyond the fresher air, fronts, troughs and flabby lows become more influential so expect some big storms to fire over the UK and France...triggers may not be present everywhere so the heat and humidity may just ebb away, while in other areas, torrential rain, frequent lightning and perhaps the odd funnel may occur.

Currently there is uncertainty in the models as to where those troughs might be, so doubt exists as to where the storms may be. Currently favoured appear to be C/N Wales, NW and N England (perhaps W Midlands and NI), S and C and E Scotland. Slim chance (I think) of potent imported storms across the SE early hours/morning of Thursday and perhaps some thundery showers from residual humidity during the early afternoon.

Question mark in the models currently as to whether the hot and humid air feeds back in Thursday night and Friday, enabling further risk of (potentially violent) storms spreading NW/N from the SE before clearing again through Saturday.

Without doubt a very exciting few days nationwide and it's going to be good fun trying to unpick the detail. Would suggest everybody gets the batteries charged whether camera, camcorder or smart phone as storms could crop just about anywhere

Thanks for the correction! , personally it wasn't meant to be taken as moisture aids instability but thank you always good to have these professionals around here, good explanation! . It's where we all learn!

Edited June 29, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Harry]

Latest runs not too positive for the SE IMO. Am thinking we might be relying on a reincursion of heat and humidity later in the week as I'm not convinced this first pulse will pop! Hope for model shift over the next few model runs, as Friday/Saturday not reliable enough for me at this timeframe

Edited June 29, 2015 by Harry

[Convective]

Latest BBC forecast describes the storms as being potentially 'ferocious' and 'pretty powerful beasts'

 

And to think some people are already writing the event off....... Ha

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes would say things look ok for here Wednesday afternoon or evening here now then Friday evening too.

[ancientsolar]

Latest BBC forecast describes the storms as being potentially 'ferocious' and 'pretty powerful beasts'

 

And to think some people are already writing the event off....... Ha

Pretty powerful Beasts ... their not beasts.. their beautys

[fazer76]

For quite a few a flicker and odd rumble would do. Billowing beautiful beasts a bonus.

[Speedway Slider]

Whatever happened to Weather girl Helen Young? Does she do forecasting still anywhere, perhaps regionals somewhere???

[fazer76]

Billowing beautiful beasts cor blimey time to unplug the PC type humdingers, variety innit?

[Greeny]

NMM and GFS are running a similar path atm for Wednesday. I'm really liking the look of this setup, its certainly interesting regardless.

[Sainsbo]

I know CAPE and Lifting Index aren't the only factors, but seeing charts like this less than 48 hours away definitely makes me excited!

 

 

[WillinGlossop]

Driving from manchester to kent wednesday mid afternoon.... Could be interesting drive if atmosphere goes pop.... Plus a pretty sticky drive....will take some food and water just incase there are any holdups.....

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Looks like I may have a little storm tomorrow evening! If the BBC is right!

[IanR]

Latest BBC forecast describes the storms as being potentially 'ferocious' and 'pretty powerful beasts'

 

And to think some people are already writing the event off....... Ha

bbc presenters can say what they like . mother nature has the last say, she may or may not   

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Also if you guys didn't already know, there is a great app called Lightning Camera which captures a Few tenths of a second before the moment you press the button to take a picture. Its good for those with slow reactions and we all know how hard lightning is to capture!! Ive not had a storm yet to try it out but this week may allow this to happen, heres hoping!!!!

[ancientsolar]

Also if you guys didn't already know, there is a great app called Lightning Camera which captures a Few tenths of a second before the moment you press the button to take a picture. Its good for those with slow reactions and we all know how hard lightning is to capture!! Ive not had a storm yet to try it out but this week may allow this to happen, heres hoping!!!!

How does it know when your going to take a photo.. you may just pretend? ~ Or does it record a second before you hit "capture"?