Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Chris K]

I'm not 100% sure myself.

Looking at the FAX, one would assume the warm front has moved further north by now?

Here's my cheap demonstration..

 

frontage.png

 

That's what i was thinking. As storms were forecast along the cold front, surely we need a decent clearing between the two to allow more surface heating ahead of it?

 

Still cloudy here though...

[boogercj]

I was hopeful of some action today (despite having a flying lesson booked at 1530 that is likely to be cancelled), but the cloud's filled in now and turned the sky milky. Meh; if I have to cancel my flying because of rain, I'd hope there would be some lightning to make up for it!

 

Still, the Netweather and MO forecast are poles apart for this area. Not quite sure which one to believe.

[Serendipity]

Sun is out here now after a cloudy start, warming up rapidly now.

[Mesoscale]

If we can keep the sun around here for a few more hours then I think I might be in the sweet spot, we shall see. Getting nice and warm now, the sky is a tad milky but the sun is definatley getting through.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Mesoscale

[Homerr]

If we can keep the sun around here for a few more hours then I think I might be in the sweet spot, we shall see. Getting nice and warm now, the sky is a tad milky but the sun is definatley getting through.

It's getting bluer though, it's warming up nicely though eh! 

[Azazel]

Blehhhh moderate rainfall here now. Another autumn day to go with this cack spring/summer so far. At least there's no howling wind

[robmarks]

Meto warnings updated now.  Slight downgrade by the looks of things.

[Mapantz]

The warning map stays the same, but here's the wording;

[sunnijim]

Cloud cover here in SE London varying between 70 and 80%. Cloud taking on a more 'lumpy' structure in the last half hour.Heat and humisery rising.21c.

If we clear the skys a bit here the 'heat island' that is London could well go on to be a real producer for that M4 corridor,Reading westward imo.

[Eskimo]

Meto warnings updated now.  Slight downgrade by the looks of things.

It's exactly the same, I think?

[Karl83]

The warning map stays the same, but here's the wording;

Screenshot_2015-06-12-11-05-54.png

Meh

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning, areas under the warning remain unchanged

 

Issued at: 1036 on Fri 12 Jun 2015

Valid from: 1100 on Fri 12 Jun 2015

Valid to: 0900 on Sat 13 Jun 2015

 

Persistent rain, locally very heavy, will spread across southwest England and south Wales today, whilst isolated severe thunderstorms may well develop further east bringing the risk of torrential downpours. Rain and showers will spread north through Friday night into Saturday morning, easing with time. Whilst most places will miss the heavier rain, the public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption, mainly from surface water flooding. Lightning and hail could also cause some impacts.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An area of warm, humid, unstable air will move north across the region today and tonight. Thunderstorms bring the potential for 20 to 30 mm falling within an hour or so, probably on a very localised basis and more likely roughly Dorset and Somerset eastwards to Home Counties. More persistent rain will give 10-20 mm quite widely over southwest England and south Wales with the risk of more than 40 mm locally.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1434063600&regionName=uk

[tomp456]

Few blobs of rain here now

[snowprincesspboro]

Feeling rather warm and muggy here, sat outdoors and already within 10 mins feel like I'm burning, lovely blue sky with a few high clouds floating by, already been out in the convertible to cool off haha, fingers crossed we will get something here, it certainly feels like we will. Good luck to all and stay safe those who are chasing xxx

[Spikecollie]

We've just got heavy rain here at the moment in Limousin. Some convective looking clouds visible though. I think they're just long lasting showers, that will probably go electrical this afternoon. So at the moment, I can't anything too significant your way!

[Azazel]

Going by the meto update then it looks like it will be a South East event even though until now it's been progged as a south west event lol. Should've known better

[Bristawl Si]

My blitzkreig lightning monitor app is not showing any activity at present, anywhere, not even in France - anyone else having same issue? Is it not working properly?

[neil_b]

Milky skies here in shrewsbury with the sun starting to burn through. Thought I would post a bit further north as im very optimistic that today will be my day. Hopefully you southerners can blow a few rogue storms towards shropshire later .

 

It's inevitable Shropshire will get good storms as I'm away from home until Monday!  I just hope I don't come home to fried computing/hifi equipment and another big lightning-induced insurance claim.  I'll be watching the situation closely later (from Berlin).

[Dean E]

Woken up to crud skies, typical leftovers!

I'm watching Northern France carefully at the moment, especially the clear sky area around Paris. Temps there are rising rapidly and are forecast to be around 30c+ there today, so there's only a matter of time before something developes there. While imports weren't so much forecast as home growns today, it's an area to watch.

Currently: Cloudy, 20c DP 17c, hum 55%

[cobbett]

Here in Southampton it's pretty gloomy and radar doesn't offer much hope of any sun in the near term . East of here is where any action will be I think

[Ben Sainsbury]

My only thought is that the cold front is coming in early and not giving time for convection to initiate ahead of the front?

[Mesoscale]

My blitzkreig lightning monitor app is not showing any activity at present, anywhere, not even in France - anyone else having same issue? Is it not working properly?

haha I like that mistake.

[Spikecollie]

My blitzkreig lightning monitor app is not showing any activity at present, anywhere, not even in France - anyone else having same issue? Is it not working properly?

No that's not right. There is a quite a ot of activity in the south of France  Languedoc Roussillon beyond.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Spikecollie

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Highest temps currently over Eastern and Southern parts of the fens, Lakenheath already at 24c. Any breaking of the capping looking likely a bit later over Buckinghamshire or Oxfordshire IMO as this pocket of warmth will advect WNW given the wind direction.

This will be where I will likely position myself later on this afternoon.

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS 6z isn't anything spectacular either