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Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

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A new thread for all that is convective, please continue to post your observations and thoughts. Hopefully some more of us will be treated to some storms today/tonight and then more of us through the rest of summer.

 

View the old thread here


 


 

Convective forecast for today from Nick F showing a marginal risk of severe weather.

 


 

Despite a slight downgrade overnight (to be expected) on GFS it is still looking like the best convective potential of the year so far for southern areas (Midlands south). The best potential for severe convective weather still looks to be late afternoon/early evening just south of the M4 corridor and this pushing gradually north into the later evening and night with continuation of thunderstorm activity and possible MCS development anywhere south of the Midlands. Areas around the Bristol channel towards towards the IOW and into South Wales have shown up on some models as being in the best (or worst) area for significant rain and thunderstorm activity. The Met Office continues to place the best storm activity to the east of the IOW but south of the M4. 

 

Later in the night as the thundery rainband pushes north we will probably see a decline in thundery activity, but there is still the possibility of some thunder around through until tomorrow morning.  By tomorrow the thunder risk disappears as the plume moves off into the continent and we get left with a slow moving band of rain across the central slice of the country.

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morning all.......lol at the GooFuS, you really couldn't write its script. It's worth noting but also worth taking with a pinch of salt......The overnight NMM isn't as good as yesterday, but certainly isn't bad....it's progging over 1000 joules of both surface and mixed layer cape,for southern counties this pm with a nice convergence zone over the same area moving north, with a nice finger of WAA........on the downside, it surprisingly doesn't make as much of the WAA as yesterday's output and I'm not sure why, and it has the cold front (which is the primary forcing mechanism) degrading faster than previously modeled....The sweet spot IMO remains the same based on this output i.e the M4 Corridor into south Wales


 


Still, it's far better than a kick in the balls !


 


 


here in Wilts, we have hazy sunshine and patchy mid-level Ac, feeling fresher than expected though in quite a keen easterly breeze


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HOT SPOT UPDATE

 

Slight shift East nothing major... 

 

post-12648-0-29488700-1434094666_thumb.j

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Damn. Looks like a write-off for me. Estofex and Met-Office put me in the risk zone, but all the models show nowt.

I seem to be in the sweet spot for all the storms to just miss me. Always so close but so far, either hugging the coast to my east or exploding over the Midlands to my west. :(

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Morning all, so let me get this right - things died a bit last night across the channel? 

Sky looks very humid here this morning.....hoping the sun breaks through and there's rapid convection later! 

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HOT SPOT UPDATE

 

Slight shift East nothing major... 

 

attachicon.gifHOT SPOT UPDATE.jpg

 

Good call though I would of extended some of it up towards bed and bucks, would of given the storms a bit more time to organise.

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Sun is trying to break through the mid-level muck here, go on you can do it! Quite warm at 16C. Everything crossed for later....

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Don't worry about the cloud.. If it got to say 2-3pm and it was still cloudy I would begin to worry.. But its not check out the clearance forming

 

 

post-12648-0-85353400-1434095249_thumb.j

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HOT SPOT UPDATE

 

Slight shift East nothing major... 

 

attachicon.gifHOT SPOT UPDATE.jpg

 

What do the purple circles indicate? I'm right in the middle of one in far south Bucks? 

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Good call though I would of extended some of it up towards bed and bucks, would of given the storms a bit more time to organise.

 

I was thinking this after I posted it would nudge the red box slightly further north to cover more northern counties 

What do the purple circles indicate? I'm right in the middle of one in far south Bucks? 

 

Where I feel IF a storm fires to the south of that it could potentially be pretty severe as it passes through this region 

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BRING IT ON!

 

At work in Watford now so let's see how things get on... I hope your hotspot map is right mate I should see something that way ^_^

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BRING IT ON!

 

At work in Watford now so let's see how things get on... I hope your hotspot map is right mate I should see something that way ^_^

 

haha don't take it as gospel buddy, im not a meteorologist and only use self taught knowledge to bring these maps up. And cause I like drawing LOL!

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Looking forward to today, have a driving lesson 11:30 till 6 so be nice if any storms that do happen wait till I have finished! Cloud here is thinning and feeling muggy, 18.5C. Looks good for this area though!

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I have decided I will start off in Oxford and will be heading out in the next couple of hours. I expect to be heading further south of this but uncertain yet as to whether to head SW, S or SE of there.

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haha don't take it as gospel buddy, im not a meteorologist and only use self taught knowledge to bring these maps up. And cause I like drawing LOL!

Sometimes they're the best forecasts though! 

 

Here's to hoping... if it does kick off I'll get on the roof and get some photos 

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I have decided I will start off in Oxford and will be heading out in the next couple of hours. I expect to be heading further south of this but uncertain yet as to whether to head SW, S or SE of there.

 

Still sticking with sitting Between Reading and M4/M25 junction just North 

 

EDIT: Oxford is a good shout actually looking at map

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This cloud cover just won't shift its only 14.7°C need clearance so the temp can nudge up.

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The new, experimental high-res model from DWD did a splendid job yesterday on forecasting the French storms (mind, it could hardly miss!) - let's see if it is as good for the UK area. Yellow is for thunder cells and there is a zoom for France that covers S. England.

 

icon-10-15_vfh0.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&map=0&archive=0

 

Last night could only be described as 'tropical', vast amount of rainfall from a continually feeding narrow band. A big, grey, wet, mess that did not offer any photo opportunities.

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HOT SPOT UPDATE

 

Slight shift East nothing major... 

 

attachicon.gifHOT SPOT UPDATE.jpg

 

Well im just in the 'sweet spot' on that map but are you just being a little bit bias? haha

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Well im just in the 'sweet spot' on that map but are you just being a little bit bias? haha

 

Every forecast when I do one even in winter I never make a bias forecast towards myself, Otherwise I would put the purple circle slap bang over myself lol.. I base it on information on the overnight model runs otherwise, really its not a accurate forecast 

The new, experimental high-res model from DWD did a splendid job yesterday on forecasting the French storms (mind, it could hardly miss!) - let's see if it is as good for the UK area. Yellow is for thunder cells and there is a zoom for France that covers S. England.

 

icon-10-15_vfh0.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&map=0&archive=0

 

Last night could only be described as 'tropical', vast amount of rainfall from a continually feeding narrow band. A big, grey, wet, mess that did not offer any photo opportunities.

 

Just run that back through my god if that is right well..  :bomb:  :help:

 

EDIT: Goes along with Estofax idea of back building cells to 

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Let's hope so for Watford! Looking out of the office window at the moment it's just murk

 

There's plenty of time yet though 

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Really not looking forward to this at all and it's the length of this that has me worried , is the thundery element expected to last all night in this rain or will that ease

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I think a drive east might be required thinking Swindon possibly!

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Really not looking forward to this at all and it's the length of this that has me worried , is the thundery element expected to last all night in this rain or will that ease

 

Nip out and buy a set of ear defenders, I've just discovered they are the best sanity preserving device invented!

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at the moment here seems quite cloudy and cool with a north easterly breeze and met office downgraded temps to 21c

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