Storm potential - Northern France/Belgium - Saturday 13th June

[Azazel]

Hi guys, didnt really know where to put this, i'm just looking for some advice and insight from some of the experts on here:)

 

a few friends and I are heading over the channel next saturday to France and Belgium (Brugge) and would just like to know about the storm potential on hte near continent as the timeframe draws closer.

 

We arent booking the tunnel until the day before, so if the potential looks good, we will book a later train back so we can stay out there most of the night. If it doesnt look good, it doesnt matter, we will still have a lovely day out and just book a train back at a more respectable hour:)

 

Any advice, charts, insight would be massively appreciated guys:)

[Azazel]

blehhhh looks like we should've gone a day earlier:/ Friday looks like a decent day

[StormChaseUK]

I'm in Saint Malo, Northern France, the wind is gusty here today but the next few days should be good.

 

Heat due to move up from the South tomorrow, with the Low centred out west

 

Thursday should see storms move west, with more of a chance for Paris/Belgium on Friday.

[Spikecollie]

blehhhh looks like we should've gone a day earlier:/ Friday looks like a decent day

Looks like a very difficult prediction. Storms could occur anywhere from tonight to next week! Meteo France progging storms for Pas de Calais on Friday morning/afternoon, but it changes so fast..who knows. If you want to be more certain, spend your money on a flight to SE France (Provence, Rhones Alpes)...

[Azazel]

Looks like a very difficult prediction. Storms could occur anywhere from tonight to next week! Meteo France progging storms for Pas de Calais on Friday morning/afternoon, but it changes so fast..who knows. If you want to be more certain, spend your money on a flight to SE France (Provence, Rhones Alpes)...

 

 

Thanks for the replies chaps!

 

I would love to haha unfortunately I have a massive phobia of flying which I am tackling head on in August when I fly into Nice.

 

If the storms deliver here in England on thurs/fri I wont mind too much (unless of course Bruges gets a monster supercell) and im sure saturday will be a pleasant day out if anything else

[Nouska]

@ Spikecollie  .....  Looking good for your area tomorrow pm.

 

 

 

Chart - London WAFC courtesy of Icelandic weather service.

 

I find these are the best forecasts around for placement of storms but only go out to a thirty six hour time frame.

 

[Blessed Weather]

Hi Azazel. Below is this afternoon's GFS CAPE and Lifted Index (LI) chart for this coming Saturday 13th at 20.00. Without getting too technical, the LI is a measure of the stability of the atmosphere and what you're looking for in the GFS charts are negative values. On the LI scale a measure of -2 to -6 means "unstable, thunderstorms likely".

 

As you can see the chart shows a large area of storm risk for Saturday. However, the presentation by Meteociel makes it very difficult to pick out country borders, let alone the positions of towns and cities! But my take is that it does look reasonably promising for your trip (but as Spikecollie says above, this could change between now and then). Whatever, have a good trip.

 

[Spikecollie]

@ Spikecollie  .....  Looking good for your area tomorrow pm.

 

 

 

Chart - London WAFC courtesy of Icelandic weather service.

 

I find these are the best forecasts around for placement of storms but only go out to a thirty six hour time frame. stopped

Just goes to show - the storms started this morning at about 0500 (nice flickering wake up), then a brief but intense over head storm in my valley with a strike on one of the hill and lots more lightning on the way into work! The rain was very intense, and kept at the same intensity after the electrical activity stopped, and it has only just finished here in Poitiers.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Spikecollie

[Methuselah]

Just goes to show - the storms started this morning at about 0500 (nice flickering wake up), then a brief but intense over head storm in my valley with a strike on one of the hill and lots more lightning on the way into work! The rain was very intense, and kept at the same intensity after the electrical activity stopped, and it has only just finished here in Poitiers.

Call me Mr Tibbs!

[Spikecollie]

Thanks for the replies chaps!

 

I would love to haha unfortunately I have a massive phobia of flying which I am tackling head on in August when I fly into Nice.

 

If the storms deliver here in England on thurs/fri I wont mind too much (unless of course Bruges gets a monster supercell) and im sure saturday will be a pleasant day out if anything else

You've gotta deal with that phobia - you're missing out! Just jumping on a flight to Nice might not be the best way of doing this. I hope you are using the phrase "massive phobia" accurately. PM me and I'm happy to offer advice...