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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

A stunning 12z, just goes to show the retrogressing high isnt a cert. Mind you, this is unfortunately likely to be an outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Mushy, Some pretty warm/hot temps into week 2 showing by the GFS. But as Pete accurately put's 'Nothing is a cert'  

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO, nothing is a 'cert'...That's the weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational is the best run so far today, the reason being that the high gradually migrates to the east of the BI which enables very warm continental air to drift north into the UK. High pressure takes control next week, initially to the west but it's really the second half of next week onwards when temperatures start to climb as the high becomes centred over the top of the UK with increasing amounts of sunshine. I hope this will be the eventual outcome. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Just an observation from me, when the models pick up on a warm anticyclonic spell in summer a considerable way out, certainly in the last few years, I've noticed that often it changes nearer to the time, what some might call a downgrade. What I've also noticed is that usually the high pressure does eventually build in after a delay, and later than initially predicted. This doesn't have a scientific basis as such but I have noted it happens more times than not, certainly in the last few years.

 

The GFS 12Z actually gets us close to what we initially thought we might get next week, with a less extreme version of that low pressure 'heat pump' setting up to the west of Ireland and allowing some warmer uppers to move over us. It will be interesting to see what the ECM comes up with later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Please can someone help, the anomaly charts never show anything recently, why is it never working?

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

By Wednesday the ECM has cut off the cool northerly and all areas would be dry and becoming warmer. I wonder if we can get high pressure to transfer over to the east of the UK on this run.

 

ECM1-168.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Please can someone help, the anomaly charts never show anything recently, why is it never working?

Don't worrry, WM... It looks like it'll be dry at least...

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

By Wednesday the ECM has cut off the cool northerly and all areas would be dry and becoming warmer. I wonder if we can get high pressure to transfer over to the east of the UK on this run.

 

ECM1-168.GIF

 

Well unfortunately the answer is no.

 

Recm2161.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well unfortunately the answer is no.

 

Recm2161.gif

But that's Scotty.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A Northerly flow again showing on the ECMWF for around the 13th.

 

ecmt850.240.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Hmmm. Quite a drastic flip around regarding the positioning of the Atlantic high in the long term.

Expect to see big changes in the mid term. The idea of this long nagging northerly seems to be questionable now, and by how much the models have changed their outputs in the last week, anything is possible in my view.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

A Northerly flow again showing on the ECMWF for around the 13th.

 

ecmt850.240.png

 

Thankfully with this being right at the end of the run it has little chance of verifying. I think it's important not to overlook the fact that this ECM run shows a very reasonable week next week for the most part.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Thankfully with this being right at the end of the run it has little chance of verifying. I think it's important not to overlook the fact that this ECM run shows a very reasonable week next week for the most part.

 

Yes a very pleasant week indeed coming up next week as shown across the model suite.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm 12z is not bad at all, high pressure bringing good sunny spells and pleasantly warm in the sun. After the dross we had through most of May and the start of this month, next week looks decent.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I think its accurate enough to say that a small but vociferous number of armchair keyboard pundits take the luxury of an easy life by sitting back, offering little to next to nothing themselves beyond "this doesn't look right" and still embrace brass nerve to criticise those who endeavour to research and test scientific theory. Those who put themselves right at the front line in taking the risk that predictions they may make based on the Science being studied to improve knowledge and forecasting might be wrong - because of the huge uncertainties that are involved in the chaotic complexity of how our atmosphere works.

 

This is not just restricted by any means to amateurs who use this site or any other, but professionals out there, who are studying all kinds of complicated science, and forecasting tools which are not fully understood. This very much includes the Met Office.

 

Those short term errors in putting learning into practice lead to the long term permanent gains that come from what people like these learn from those very mistakes that are made, that benefits and increases the knowledge of many more of us, and which without that knowledge and better understanding - we would all be still be using tea leaves.... :)...

 

....Current modelling continues to reflect further downward tendency in Atmospheric Angular Momentum with the Global Wind Oscillation soon returning to Phase 1/2 and inviting the more westward positioning of High pressure from the weekend onwards - much as stated seemed likely in my last couple of posts

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png.

 

A sure sign of this further drop in AAM comes from the MJO forecasts, and the recent shift of consensus emphasis for tropical convection to head back through towards the Indian Ocean in Phase 3. In this respect the ECM forecasts have taken the first prize over other models in recent uncertainty.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

It is this evolution that seems likely to allow the High pressure to recede westwards just enough beyond the 7 day period to allow rather more unsettled conditions to, probably briefly, interrupt the fine weather.

 

However, with the upper vortex finally removed from Canada,. there is virtually no chance of a return to the unseasonal conditions seen recently and a much more typical summer-style slack drop of heights would seem likely the case over the UK and North Western Europe

 

More about that possibility as times moves on though

 

For those looking for real heat, it remains a waiting game for Angular Momentum tendency to rise once more. To repeat the same mantra as before - a low tendency state will always inhibit pressure building further eastwards across the UK and will keep inviting cooler air to stay closer to our north than many would prefer at this stage in early summer.

 

Illustration of this is how those higher uppers suggested in the modelling have been eaten away bit by bit over the last couple of days as tropical (MJO) and extra tropical (GWO) signals have become more certain 

 

All in all though, there is nothing to complain about at all for the weekend and much of next week - with some very pleasant quiet weather to look forward to after a thundery day in southern and eastern parts on Friday :)

 

For what it's worth I completely agree with that.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Hmmm. Quite a drastic flip around regarding the positioning of the Atlantic high in the long term.

Expect to see big changes in the mid term. The idea of this long nagging northerly seems to be questionable now, and by how much the models have changed their outputs in the last week, anything is possible in my view.

Indeed, After the briefest of Plumes. high pressure builds to the west of the uk with an unusually cold flow across the nation. I would think weak fronts will be moving across the nation with some light showers in the northern half of Britain ,so sunshine amounts will vary, perhaps the south coast of England along with south west England and Wales will benefit the most. . Patchy ground or even air frosts in one or two sheltered places too, The gfs is a mess after mid week next week, but the Ecm is trending the high pressure to move far  away into the Atlantic  which allows low pressure to develop over the Uk ,,,,,,,,The trend of late... :closedeyes:

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Hmmm. Quite a drastic flip around regarding the positioning of the Atlantic high in the long term.

Expect to see big changes in the mid term. The idea of this long nagging northerly seems to be questionable now, and by how much the models have changed their outputs in the last week, anything is possible in my view.

 

 

Only thing drastic has been the downgrade of the prolonged hot spell, next week was looking hot at one stage now it's looking much cooler with a below average CET mean with very chilly nights, now that's what you call drastic.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

I think that on most occasions "that doesn't look right" actually means "that doesn't look like what I want to see!"

 

Onwards to something a little different, spurred by an exchange on my old home and in reference to a monthly forecast.

 

Singularities and what they can mean in terms of perhaps second guessing conflicting NWP. I looked at the UK Sci weather resources and this table of HH Lambs version. Surprising how we are following pretty much as per his thesis. I've screen capped June but the whole page is an interesting read. This is where the hunch may play a part in good forecasting.

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I mentioned about the Ecm 12z op not being a bad run and now we have the Ecm 12z ensemble mean which looks better with the cool northerly in the late stages of the op held at bay to the north of the BI on the mean. Not a bad way to end today.

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