Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

A quick look at the anomalies this morning to see if we can get a handle on which way the evolution may progress.

 

The GFS and ECM are both looking at upper trough formation east of Greenland around day nine but they are not at this stage singing from the same hymn sheet. The GEFS is far more aggressive with the trough, although it's a fairly weak feature, and the establishment of a slack area of pressure over NW Europe than the ECM. So at this stage a large amount of uncertainty remains.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 3, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, A pleasant week coming up as you say. With lot's of dry and settled weather to be had. More of what we would expect during early Summer with temps widely touching 20c over a vast swathe of the UK.

[Frosty.]

Yes Frosty, A pleasant week coming up as you say. With lot's of dry and settled weather to be had. More of what we would expect during early Summer with temps widely touching 20c over a vast swathe of the UK.

Yes PM, it's looking good for our first nationwide settled and pleasantly warm spell throughout next week, actually, the coming weekend looks good in the south and at last, the northwest of the UK has something to look forward to next week with dry, sunny and warm conditions for a change.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows some very thundery activity in the southeast on Friday, a very warm and humid day down there with heavy downpours but hazy sunshine too, quite warm for most of England and Wales and persistent rain for parts of scotland..then things start to improve.

[knocker]

A question for our Stratosphere experts that I trust isn't too stupid. Apparently the QBO at the moment is phenomenal so does a strong QBO have any impact at all on NH tropospheric circulation in Summer?

 

I found this in Stratosphere Troposphere interactions by K. Mohanakumar but a little knowledge is quite dangerous

 

 QBO Effects on the Troposphere

 

The QBO's effects on the troposphere are suggestive, but are not well understood.Gray ( 1984) has demonstrated an intriguing and significant link between the phase of the QBO and hurricane formation. The equatorial troposphere shows variability
on the timescale of the QBO, but a direct link to the stratospheric QBO has not been estahlished. It is possible that the QBO may influence the high-latitude northern troposphere through its effect on the stratospheric polar vortex. Coupling between
stratospheric zonal mean wind and the mid-tropospheric North Atlantic oscillation is strong, but the cause and effect are not clear. It is possible that QBO-induced high-latitude wind anomalies penetrate downward into the troposphere (Gray 2003;
Gray et al. 2004) .

 

Sam Lillo â€@splillo 

This QBO wave is phenomenal. Very large anomalies in both the easterlies and now descending westerlies

Edited June 3, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

High Pressure does show to be a little stronger over the UK by the 11th on the 6z, Compared to the 00z. 

 

Edited June 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z doesn't disappoint next week, high pressure building in and temperatures slowly rising into the high teens to low 20's celsius, feeling very pleasant in the strong June sunshine and light winds but with chilly nights, following weeks of unseasonably cool unsettled and sometimes windy weather, next week is looking very good.

[mountain shadow]

The Gfs 6z doesn't disappoint next week, high pressure building in and temperatures slowly rising into the high teens to low 20's celsius, feeling very pleasant in the strong June sunshine and light winds but with chilly nights, following weeks of unseasonably cool unsettled and sometimes windy weather, next week is looking very good.

I would be reluctant to call it very pleasant, better maybe, but not very pleasant. Still a North Westerly influence with rain around for the North and West, also perhaps a North Sea draw in South Eastern areas. The South West could have a very nice spell though.

Edited June 3, 2015 by mountain shadow

[Frosty.]

I would be reluctant to call it very pleasant, better maybe, but not very pleasant. Still a North Westerly influence with rain around for the North and West, also perhaps a North Sea draw in South Eastern areas. The South West could have a very nice spell though.

I disagree, may was awful, especially in the north and northwest, by comparison, next week looks very pleasant for a large swathe of the uk, even the northwest of the UK looks fine and warm for most of next week, at the very least, there is a strong ridge of high pressure covering the UK for a change, compared to the dross in recent weeks, it's very pleasant.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Frosty.

[Milhouse]

How much temperatures rise next week will be dependant on how quick we can get rid of the cool air thats set to sweep south over the weekend. Early next week it will become trapped within the high pressure with the coolish feed from the north not helping things. The moment we get warmer air coming over the top of the high without having to come over the North Sea we will see temperatures respond. This is evident by Wednesday and particularly Thursday on the GFS 6z.

 

 

[Gibby]

I've always found that when High pressure parks West of the UK at anytime of year clear skies are a thing of night times and first thing in the mornings with an infill of convective but flattening cloud through the warmer hours of the day making things pleasant rather than anything better but who knows things might be different this time.

[mushymanrob]

Yes Frosty, A pleasant week coming up as you say. With lot's of dry and settled weather to be had. More of what we would expect during early Summer with temps widely touching 20c over a vast swathe of the UK.

 

the voice of sobriety! i cant see what people are moaning at tbh, i expect tose moaning at the lack of real heat will be the same ones moaning at the humidity when it comes!

you are right, as is frosty, as long as we manage to avoid cloud issues (north sea muck) itll be very pleasant in the very srtong sun.

interestingly, only a few hours ago next weeks high was expected to drift eastwards,.... now it retrogresses.. frankly i dont care! as long as we have high pressure influencing our weather it will not be 'bad'.

[Captain Shortwave]

Having heights west and north west of the UK does usually come with cloud problems, either from warm sectors allowing low cloud to spill in off the Atlantic or down the north sea, also as mentioned above the flat convective spread you tend to get in cool and stable set ups could also be a problem.

In the end the closer the high gets to the UK, the better conditions will be. Even a cool high which sets up over the UK will eventually warm through with temperatures starting in the high teens but will quickly warm through to give warm or eventually very warm conditions even if the 850s are unspectacular in nature.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

The thing is, the signs have been there for a good 10 days or so. There never (to me anyway) looked to be a major hemispheric pattern change on the way. Even when we were seeing blistering summer charts there was a sniff of high latitude blocking knocking around.....which I did note at the time. I think Mushy pulled me up on it.

 

 

 

 

yes matey i did pull you up on saying  " For my money there's just too much pressure knocking around at the high latitudes for June as a whole to be anything of note in terms of sustained heat." , because thats not what the models were showing with any consistency, and wheres the data for "june as a whole"?... you didnt post any supportive data, so it just read as a 'spoiler' imho.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

 

yes matey i did pull you up on saying  " For my money there's just too much pressure knocking around at the high latitudes for June as a whole to be anything of note in terms of sustained heat." , because thats not what the models were showing with any consistency, and wheres the data for "june as a whole"?... you didnt post any supportive data, so it just read as a 'spoiler' imho.

 

Sometimes, Mushy, this becomes less of a scientific game and more of a 'sit back and look at the wider picture' jobby. Years of experience can tell you whether a situation looks a goer or not with the computer models merely a point of reference. We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

I've said time and again, in my eyes ensembles and their forecasts are next to useless in most situations that don't involve continuing raging zonality. Only a few days ago we had an ECM mean posted on here which showed a sustained push from the S....where's that now? I even remember one member saying there must have been good agreement within the ensembles. In truth we're only very slimly advanced from where we were 10-20 years ago IMO; especially in relative terms to the number of upgrades the NWP has had. We now have brilliant resolution and can forecast rain intensity to within the mile but that's no use if there is no accuracy within this increased resolution.

 

I find there are certain constants in relation to model analysis...for example 9 times out of 10 if a situation downgrades (whether it be a wind event, hot plume or cold northerly) it very rarely upgrades once again and infact most of the time dissipates into a fraction of what was originally showed.

 

There are many others which have served me fairly well over the last few years.

 

The one person who was able to successfully marry 'out there' scientific processes and gold old experience has unfortunately left the site- Glacier Point.

Edited June 3, 2015 by CreweCold

[knocker]

Sometimes, Mushy, this becomes less of a scientific game and more of a 'sit back and look at the wider picture' jobby. Years of experience can tell you whether a situation looks a goer or not with the computer models merely a point of reference. We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

I've said time and again, in my eyes ensembles and their forecasts are next to useless in most situations that don't involve continuing raging zonality. Only a few days ago we had an ECM mean posted on here which showed a sustained push from the S....where's that now? I even remember one member saying there must have been good agreement within the ensembles. In truth we're only very slimly advanced from where we were 10-20 years ago IMO; especially in relative terms to the number of upgrades the NWP has had. We now have brilliant resolution and can forecast rain intensity to within the mile but that's no use if there is no accuracy within this increased resolution.

 

I find there are certain constants in relation to model analysis...for example 9 times out of 10 if a situation downgrades (whether it be a wind event, hot plume or cold northerly) it very rarely upgrades once again and infact most of the time dissipates into a fraction of what was originally showed.

 

There are many others which have served me fairly well over the last few years.

 

The one person who was able to successfully marry 'out there' scientific processes and gold old experience has unfortunately left the site- Glacier Point.

 

I find that a ridiculous, and frankly, a very arrogant statement.

 

In your eyes ensembles and their forecasts are next to useless and yet there is a man who posts on here regularly who considers uniformity of the upper air pattern, put simplistically, as an excellent way of trying to nail down the upcoming evolution. Given that man has many years as a senior forecaster I would take his opinion over yours any day of the week.

 

Of course model forecasts come a serious cropper, it is after all an extremely complex subject, but improvements in scientific and meteorological knowledge, not forgetting computer power, has meant massive improvements in forecasting over the last forty years. I'll take this over gut feeling and crystal ball gazing anytime.

 

Purely out of interest how many years of experience have you had and what does it consist of?

[coldcomfort]

Sometimes, Mushy, this becomes less of a scientific game and more of a 'sit back and look at the wider picture' jobby. Years of experience can tell you whether a situation looks a goer or not with the computer models merely a point of reference. We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

I've said time and again, in my eyes ensembles and their forecasts are next to useless in most situations that don't involve continuing raging zonality. Only a few days ago we had an ECM mean posted on here which showed a sustained push from the S....where's that now? I even remember one member saying there must have been good agreement within the ensembles. In truth we're only very slimly advanced from where we were 10-20 years ago IMO; especially in relative terms to the number of upgrades the NWP has had. We now have brilliant resolution and can forecast rain intensity to within the mile but that's no use if there is no accuracy within this increased resolution.

 

I find there are certain constants in relation to model analysis...for example 9 times out of 10 if a situation downgrades (whether it be a wind event, hot plume or cold northerly) it very rarely upgrades once again and infact most of the time dissipates into a fraction of what was originally showed.

 

There are many others which have served me fairly well over the last few years.

 

The one person who was able to successfully marry 'out there' scientific processes and gold old experience has unfortunately left the site- Glacier Point.

Ain't that a fact....excellent post CC.

 

As in many walks of life 'experience' can and often does trump pure science, with the weather and particularly model watching being a classic case in point. How many times have we heard various members go 'just seen the latest ECM and it just doesn't look right' for instance?. No real point in being able to work out the chemical composition of Marmite if you can't get the lid off!

[knocker]

Ain't that a fact....excellent post CC.

 

As in many walks of life 'experience' can and often does trump pure science, with the weather and particularly model watching being a classic case in point. How many times have we heard various members go 'just seen the latest ECM and it just doesn't look right' for instance?. No real point in being able to work out the chemical composition of Marmite if you can't get the lid off!

 

Is that a fact. I might agree with that if the experience you are talking about was as a meteorologist.

[coldcomfort]

Is that a fact. I might agree with that if the experience you are talking about was as a meteorologist.

It is course your choice to to believe or disbelieve, but imo this line from CC is absolutely right on the money....  We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

That said i'm sure he is not trying to blame anyone, nor criticise them either, but sometimes all the expert analysis and copious amounts of big scientific words get trumped by someone going 'you know what, that doesn't look right' 

 

Moreover I think you will find there is no pre requisit to be or have been a meteorologist to post in here - some of the best posts are made by out and out amateurs/enthusiasts.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

It is course your choice to to believe or disbelieve, but imo this line from CC is absolutely right on the money....  We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

That said i'm sure he is not trying to blame anyone, nor criticise them either, but sometimes all the expert analysis and copious amounts of big scientific words get trumped by someone going 'you know what, that doesn't look right' 

 

Moreover I think you will find there is no pre requisit to be or have been a meteorologist to post in here - some of the best posts are made by out and out amateurs/enthusiasts.

 

Hang on a minute. I never said, nor did I infer, that it was a prerequisite to be or have been a meteorologist to post in here. I merely mentioned it in reply to your

 

 

As in many walks of life 'experience' can and often does trump pure science, with the weather and particularly model watching being a classic case in point.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Chris K]

It is course your choice to to believe or disbelieve, but imo this line from CC is absolutely right on the money....  We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

That said i'm sure he is not trying to blame anyone, nor criticise them either, but sometimes all the expert analysis and copious amounts of big scientific words get trumped by someone going 'you know what, that doesn't look right' 

 

Moreover I think you will find there is no pre requisit to be or have been a meteorologist to post in here - some of the best posts are made by out and out amateurs/enthusiasts.

 

I think some people sometimes forget that those who produced their initial analyses, often posted a review towards the end of their forecasts, explaining why the outcome did not verify quite as expected. i.e. the science behind what factors caused a differring solution. It's one thing to say something does not look right and getting it right, but another to explain why, backed up by the science.

 

The major overarching pattern can stay relatively similar, but the smallest of small scale changes will mean a totally different outcome for a specific area.

 

Even the professional organisations always have an element of uncertainty included in their calcuations...such is the chaos of meteorology.

 

To make a final point, I am not saying that those who do not provide scientific evidence in every post should not post at all. All should feel welcome to post their thoughts in here regarding the model outputs, it makes this site a great place to learn.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

oo ek.... worms - can - opened... lol

a fair reply cc although i dont fully agree with it myself.

the point is really that if many years of expereince can trump computer models.... we wouldnt need computer models!

however saying that you didnt think the time was right for a pattern change (away from a westerly based high which has been there or thereabouts since march) is a fair call. the pattern will change.... its a question of when. (and of course what too... id prefer this mostly dry, fresh, cool sunny weather to raging zonal wet stuff).

in all honesty, the models did suggest that we might have had a pattern change, but it looks unlikely now.

anyway, its june 3rd.... thats about ten weeks left of 'mushy summer' (i dont count mid august onwards as summer ) left!

[Polar Maritime]

Pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded.

 

This is the case all year round in this thread, Not just winter.. So let's continue to discuss what the Model Output's are actually showing in here please. 

 

Thanks, PM.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Yarmy]

Anyway, the GFS 12z op is getting interesting:

 

 

Garden path?

[Polar Maritime]

Anyway, Garden path?

The GFS has been strengthening the High over the uk during the last run or two, So this is a nice trend to see. The ECMWF will be an interesting run reg this tonight.