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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The truth is no one here, especially myself, have called it correct over the past couple of weeks, or even the past couple of months.The models have tempted us with Summer only to snatch it away at the last moment. My gut feeling from watching the models, and from reading the mainstream forecasts is that things will get better during June , and hopefully a lot better than May. :D .

Posters here react to what the models are showing. The upcoming hot spell, albeit a brief affair for the southeast, was predicted by the gfs in deep fi, at t+ 300. I think thats quite impressive, and whilst the detail hasnt gone accordingly a spell of high pressure domination in early june was accurately predicted.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The Euro is just a slower breakdown to the Atlantic but still a breakdown. When you view the last 3 charts you can see the 1030mb and 1025mb contours slipping away..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I don't know about a breakdown to the Atlantic as it seems to me down to an upper trough development east of Greenland from the persistent low pressure over the Pole. The GEFS and ECM anomalies treat this differently moving into the ext period so I think some caution over all of this is required.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Day 10 ensemble means from ECM and GFS do make for rather poor viewing as heights retrogress towards the mid-Atlantic/Southern Greenland with any genuine summer warmth very fleeting.

 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Just our luck the retrogressing high(if it comes to fruition).I think the uk is the most frustrating place to live re the weather(for the majority in winter and summer).

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Just our luck the retrogressing high(if it comes to fruition).I think the uk is the most frustrating place to live re the weather(for the majority in winter and summer).

 

The thing is, the signs have been there for a good 10 days or so. There never (to me anyway) looked to be a major hemispheric pattern change on the way. Even when we were seeing blistering summer charts there was a sniff of high latitude blocking knocking around.....which I did note at the time. I think Mushy pulled me up on it.

 

I, myself am guilty of it in winter (as are many others)....some glorious charts are churned out and you get carried away, completely ignoring the obvious stumbling blocks that could spell the end before it has even got going. Sometimes, even with the best output at the time, the hemispheric set up just doesn't look right.

Edited by CreweCold
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The thing is, the signs have been there for a good 10 days or so. There never (to me anyway) looked to be a major hemispheric pattern change on the way. Even when we were seeing blistering summer charts there was a sniff of high latitude blocking knocking around.....which I did note at the time. I think Mushy pulled me up on it.

Very much agree CC, there has never been solid background support for the kind of changes needed to deliver proper summer warmth, let alone heat, but saying it was never likely to increase personal popularity. 

 

There is no doubt that things are going to improve for a time next week, but I think the retrogressive signal will verify and as time goes the models will shorten the window of settled weather, perhaps to as few as 3 or 4 days in the end. Before mid month I'd expect heights to be well established over Greenland (ironically and annoyingly just what we want to see in Winter), with deep toughing over us, but that may not necessarily mean curtains for the 2nd half of the month too. 

Edited by coldcomfort
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

I disagree with the breakdown to the Atlantic as it seems to me an upper trough development east of Greenland from the persistent low pressure over the Pole. The GEFS and ECM anomalies treat this differently moving into the ext period so I think some caution over all of this is required.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Going by the ENSO article you linked this morning it is not surprising that the NWP is struggling. If the ocean and atmosphere are still disconnected, with a strengthening Nino in place, the modelling is likely to become more erratic. What was the punchline -

 

"In fact, the current temperature patterns are more like those normally seen in classic El Niño Decembers."

 

The NOAA blog talks about this divergence in the longer range forecasting tools.

 

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-likely-what-climate-impacts-are-favored-summer

 

Modelling is now converging on an amplified MJO sweep across the Indian Ocean - as said last week - not a good phase for us.

 

I hesitate to bring solar activity into the mix but it is notably low; are we going to see another very blocked summer with a tendency for troughing to put the Jet on a southerly trajectory?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

You couldn't build a machine that would funnel the cold uppers with more precision....

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Another GFS northerly by day 11..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not much point in going in to any detail for the GFS run this morning. An overview would be HP dominated, dry with temps below average

 

Friday cool in Scotland and Cornwall but ideal for frollicking  on the Serpentine.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Perhaps humanitarian influences come into play and consideration is being given to the health of the majority of posters........................................

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

You couldn't build a machine that would funnel the cold uppers with more precision....

 

 

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Why does that never happen in winter when we tend to be the only place at 50 degrees north that is mild!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Not much point in going in to any detail for the GFS run this morning. An overview would be HP dominated, dry with temps below average

 

Friday cool in Scotland and Cornwall but ideal for frollicking  on the Serpentine.

I can't see why temperatures would be below average?

Any sunshine at this time of year will push temperatures near if not above average and I don't see why that high would be cloudy?

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Why does that never happen in winter when we tend to be the only place at 50 degrees north that is mild!

Andy

 

Purely an observation but one chart twelve days down the line isn't confirmation that it's going to happen in summer either.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

You couldn't build a machine that would funnel the cold uppers with more precision....

 

 

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tbh... those colours are misleading, the blue suggesting colder then what we would get on the surface. true, no heatwave, but a lot of fresh, sunny, weather which in the strong sun would feel very pleasant .

of course this is in deep fi too, so isnt worth worrying about as its unlikely to verify.

before then, we have a lot of warm, fresh, dry sunny weather (friday aside of course). i cant see what there is to be despondent about. summer cant win can it?... if its hot people moan about the humidity....if its not hot but sunny and fresh people moan its not like summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS this morning shows settled/dry weather for the uk next week with temps 16/17c for the South, Cooler the further North with temp in the teens and single minima for the far North with frost at night. It will feel much more pleasant than of late. Before a slack Northerly of sorts by the 13/14th. Towards the end of the run High Pressure does show to try and push over the uk once again around the 17th..

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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I can't see why temperatures would be below average?

Any sunshine at this time of year will push temperatures near if not above average and I don't see why that high would be cloudy?

Andy

It will be the coldness of the nights that drags the daily mean below average Andy. For the 4th day in a row the anom charts frank the below average temps across the next 10 days.   http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 3RD 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Westerly airflow is blowing across the UK with pressure rising from the South over the next 24-48hrs.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to blow across Northern Britain from the West and will do so for another three or four days before migrating North to Iceland where it remains for some while before moving back South over the British Isles late in the period as pressure falls.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure moving NE close to the SE of the UK with a brief flirtation with very warm and humid air before low pressure enar NW Scotland brings cooler and fresher air across all areas in time for the weekend. High pressure is then shown to build and anchor close to NW Britain from early next week with fine and dry weather shown for all with a stiff East wind over Southern England and warm temeratures in the West and NW. Later in the run pressure falls from the North for a time allowing some showers in the North as the High recedes away SW temporarily before rebuilding at the end of the run with renewed fine weather spreading back for many.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly similar to the above with a large High settling to the West and NW of the UK with fine and settled weather for many. A cool breeze could temper temperatures in the East with the warmest conditions towards the West and NW and a few thundery showers could affect the South and SE at times perhaps more extensively for a time mid period before High pressure re-establishes strongly again just to the west of the UK by the end of the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the main theme remaining a High pressure based one in two weeks time with the positioning of it likely to lie close to the West or SW of the UK with a ridge across the UK with fine and bright weather as a result.

 


 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows humid air being swept away East at the weekend as High pressure builds strongly across the North of the UK later in the weekend with a NE or East flow setting up across the far South delivering fine and sunny conditions with the warmest weather likely to develop across the NW.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show another windy and wet period for the NW over the end of the week while the SE see a humid puddle of air drift across with some thundery showers possible. Pressure is then shown to rise frome the SW and West of Britain over the Weekend.

 


 

GEM GEM today follows the theme of the aforementioned models in building pressure behind a front crossing East on Friday taking away warm and humid air to the East and replacing it with clear and fresh air over the weekend with a cool NE breeze over the South later and fine and sunny weather for many with the warmest weather likely in the West and NW near the centre of the High pressure area by then.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is in unison with other output too as it builds pressure across the UK over the weekend with fine and settled conditions developing after a cool and breezy few days across the North and the odd thundery shower towards the SE on Friday. Next week then looks fine and warm with sunny spells and a cooling breeze from the east or NE across the far South.

 


 

ECM ECM today shows High pressure building too just to the West of the UK next week with fine and warm weather for many as a ridge lies across Northern Britain. Later in the week it slips South and declines as pressure steadily falls across the British Isles from the North with some rain or showers reaching the North towards next weekend.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge across the UK with fine and settled weather still as a result. Pressure is a little lower over Europe suggesting that there could be a thundery shower or two at times creeping North or NW across the South.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for High pressure to develop close to NW Britain remains but with less chance of it migrating to the NE this morning longer term.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.8 over UKMO's 81.6 pts with GFS at 81.6. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.1 over 44.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.9 pts to 23.3 pts.

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS There is strong support again this morning for High pressure to become the dominant player in the UK weather over the next two weeks once we clear the messy synoptics of the next few days which offer some humid and potentially thundery conditions for the SE for a time Friday and some cooler and windier conditions elsewhere with some rain in the NW. A surge of cooler and fresher air then reaches all of the UK on Saturday which then warms steadily as High pressure builds from the west and settles close to the west and NW of the UK next week. If I was to be picky I would suggest the HIgh is not best placed to bring particularly warm temperatures to some parts of the UK with the flow from the North over the East pegging temperatures back here somewhat and also  with the threat of a fresh East or NE breeze across the South too it may feel somewhat cool here too if cloud amounts are a feature. In addition there is always a threat of the odd thundery shower moving North or NW from Continental Europe over the South though this doesn't look a widespread threat between the outputs this morning. All this taken into consideration it may well end up that the North and West of the UK become quite warm and sunny with the Highlands of Scotland often seeing the best weather and highest temperatures in these type of synoptic setups. Looking further forward High pressure is shown to retrogress somewhat later with less chance of it shown this morning to drift to the East. Instead it looks like it could pull back SW or West to allow some cooler and more showery conditions to develop from the North at least temporarily, this shown from both GFS and ECM this morning. So all in all it looks like that real heat and humidity will remain on hold which may be a disappointment to some that like that sort of weather after what charts were showing some days back but on the plus side a lot of dry and fine weather is looking likely for most of the UK for some time at least with some warmth for all especially in the West and NW which will be a marked change for those areas that have most been affected by the incessant coolness of Atlantic cool West and NW winds of late.

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 4th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

The GFS this morning shows settled/dry weather for the uk next week with temps 16/17c for the South, Cooler the further North with temp in the teens and single minima for the far North with frost at night. It will feel much more pleasant than of late. Before a slack Northerly of sorts by the 13/14th. Towards the end of the run High Pressure does show to try and push over the uk once again around the 17th..

 

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Yes.  I'm quite surprised that even experienced posters are pointing to the slack northerly modelled for 10/11 days time as being written in stone even though it is moderately deep FI.

 

It seems clear that there is going to be HP domination and there are decent signals for at least the risk of retrogression.  However, at this range, it is hopeless to expect the models to predict the orientation of the High which is crucial in determining the actual weather.

 

As they say, more runs needed!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes.  I'm quite surprised that even experienced posters are pointing to the slack northerly modelled for 10/11 days time as being written in stone even though it is moderately deep FI.

 

The Northerly of sorts in question has been shown on a number of runs now, No members have 'written it in stone'.. And the GFS certainly hasn't as yet. Of course detail can/does change at this time-scale & more runs are always needed for verification 10/11 days out that's how the models work. But these are the signals the GFS are again touting for this morning. Why discount them?

Edited by Polar Maritime
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The Northerly of sorts in question has been shown on a number of runs now, No members have 'written it in stone'.. And the GFS certainly hasn't as yet. Of course detail can/does change at this time-scale & more runs are always needed for verification 10/11 days out that's how the models work. But these are the signals the GFS are again touting for this morning. Why discount them?

ECM is also clearly heading in the same direction towards the end of the run, so as you say why discount it or fail to recognise it....the possibility exists. As I said yesterday the retrogressive signal remains fairly constant, but the longer term GFS is already starting to point towards a less potent and shorter unsettled spell, with pressure building once again from the SW as we go into the 2nd half of the month.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Updated quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Pressure building once again from the SW as we go into the 2nd half of the month.

 

Yes the last frame of the ECMWF seems to be falling into line following the GFS's Northerly flow of sorts, So the 12z runs will be interesting. High Pressure is shown towards the last few frames of the GFS to push in from the S/W.

 

ecmt850.240.pngh850t850eu.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows a very pleasant anticyclonic spell next week with lots of sunshine and light winds with temperatures very respectable for the time of year but with chilly nights in low to mid single digits celsius, it briefly turns cooler and more unsettled as a trough swings down from Iceland but after a day or two, high pressure builds in again...it's a good run. :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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