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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS shows High Pressure sat over the UK by the 10th. With temps widely in the 20's and settled.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Latest EC32 update in very general terms.

 

Next week much as the anomalies above but by the 14th some influence from a weak upper trough to the NW which makes a guest appearance for a couple of days.

 

From thereon to the beginning of July there is no clear signal for any thing other than HP influence, mainly from the SW but also from the NE, until heights there tend to dip by the end of the run.

 

Summary

 

I think a pretty fair June with HP pretty consistently in charge but with shortwave perturbations in the eastern Atlantic. Temps hovering around the norm.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

a pretty satisfying outlook from sunday , high pressure domination, sunny , dry, fresh  feeling , warm in the strong sun, but without the humidity many dislike about summer warmth.  it might not be 'the best start to june since 1975' but if this verifies (which is likely) itll be a lot better then many starts to june.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I think the cold winter and spring in the n Atlantic has left its mark. going to take some time for the warmer euro uppers to spread north it seems.

I would be suspicious of any predicted plume scenario getting further than the Midlands until the Atlantic low uppers mix out.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows a generally warm settled extended outlook with high pressure domination, the high initially is centred just to the west but it slowly migrates to the east of the UK and enables very warm continental air to push north across the UK. In the meantime, wed/thurs look calmer, drier, sunnier and warmer than recently and Friday looks very warm and humid in southern areas, especially the southeastern corner but there is a risk of thundery rain on Friday, some big storms perhaps for the southeast. The weekend should be fine and pleasantly warm in the south and east due to a ridge of high pressure and then next week onwards could really be the start of something special for early summer 2015 :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong Westerly flow slowly decreasing later as the depression responsible moves slowly away NE over the Northern North Sea.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions too for some especially in the West.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow blowing across the UK currently backing Southerly over the coming days before becoming light and less focused on position over the following weeks.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a change in the weather on the way for the UK. Low pressure will gradually become less influential as the Jet flow responsible weakens and High pressure gradually moves in from the West. There is a spell of warm weather late this week for the SE, quickly displaced by cooler fresher air as the High establishes. The rest of the run shows High pressure near the North of the UK with Easterly winds in the South. Fine and quite warm weather is likely moreso later as winds turn more SE and the risk of thundery showers reaches the South.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a similar pattern with High pressure gradually developing just to the West or NW of the UK. the problem with this run is that it never develops in a favourable enough position to prevent cool North or NE winds from blowing across the UK and while dry for all for much of the time some cloudier and cool breezes are possible and some showers in the SE too as pressure falls for a time on the continent..

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a real mixed bag of options, so much so than no real clear definition of where synoptics will lie at the two week time point can be determined

 


 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things improvong steadily now for the rest of the week. However, 1 more trough crosses East on Friday bringing a fall in temperatures after a brief warm and humid period. Thereafter winds become Easterly in the South and rather fresh at that while the North sees the best of the dry and bright weather in light winds as High pressure builds across these areas.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the tentative improvements later in the week as High pressure gradually replaces the trough laden latitudes surrounding the UK currently.

 


 

GEM GEM today continues to prefer a more changeable period being maintained over the next 10 days and while some decent weather could be enjoyed for all at times a change to more unsettled weather with rain at times, some possibly thundery never looks that far away as small but influential Low pressure replaces ridges of High pressure at other times.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of GFS this morning building pressure up to the NW of the UK next week setting up a strong Easterly flow across the South and bringing fine and dry conditions to the North with the best of the sunshine there-all this after a period of unsettled weather over the weekend as Low pressure edges NE in rather humid air ahead of rather fresher conditions thereafter.

 


 

ECM ECM's theme does look like the most popular theme between the models today as High pressure eventually builds up to the NW of the UK with a ridge across the North and an Easterly flow across the South. After a slightly unsettled end to the week and weekend things look like becoming dry everywhere but cool near eastern coasts with the best of the sunshine in the West. Then as High pressure migrates East towards Scandinavia late in the run a thundery breakdown moving up from the SW looks possible later.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows slack pressure maintained over the UK in 10 days time with High pressure the main player with a lot of dry and settled weather with the risk of thundery showers in the South.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for High pressure to develop close to NW and then North or NE of Britain in the longer term is quite strong this morning.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.0 over UKMO's 81.9 pts with GFS at 81.9. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.2 over 43.8. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 28.1 pts to 21.9 pts.

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The main theme this morning appears to be for a trend towards High pressure to build towards the NW of the UK with an Easterly flow developing across the South. In the interim period the burst of high temperatures earlier expected later this week seem all but dead in the water now and although it will feel a marked improvement on events of recent days, warm and humid is the way I would describe it briefly before fresher conditions return South over all areas at the weekend as the High to the NW builds. Then next week it will be dry and bright for many and become warm in places, especially towards the West and North while a nagging East wind could bring rather cool conditions near North Sea English coasts. There could also be a trend towards pressure to fall over mainland Europe sufficiently enough at times to feed a risk of thundery showers up into Southern Britain at times later in the period. However, all that said it does look like a pattern change is still on the way as the Jet stream finally loses much of it's impetus and something more akin of what we should expect at this time of year looks likely for all over the next week or two as High pressure looks likely to settle close to the NW, North and later the NE of the UK and while that might not bring record breakingly high temperatures across the UK pleasantly warm conditions for many should be possible under these synoptics.

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 3rd 2015

Edited by Gibby
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

a pretty satisfying outlook from sunday , high pressure domination, sunny , dry, fresh  feeling , warm in the strong sun, but without the humidity many dislike about summer warmth.  it might not be 'the best start to june since 1975' but if this verifies (which is likely) itll be a lot better then many starts to june.

Are you basing your assumption just on the gfs? :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

a pretty satisfying outlook from sunday , high pressure domination, sunny , dry, fresh  feeling , warm in the strong sun, but without the humidity many dislike about summer warmth.  it might not be 'the best start to june since 1975' but if this verifies (which is likely) itll be a lot better then many starts to june.

Looks like the ideal summer scenario to me..could be the best 2 weeks of the summer if it comes to pass?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z shows a change to anticyclonic conditions next week and gradually becoming warmer, very warm later next week. :)

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On the face of it things do look considerably better for all of us come the early part of next week, but it's still the early part of this week and as such nothing should be taken for granted. This time last week things looked like settling down and becoming very warm/hot for all of us after tomorrow, but as time went by that plan went out the window, so caution is still the watch word imo. Having said that the way next weeks HP develops and takes charge looks far more plausible to me; moreover it's not promising the kind of silly numbers we saw touted for later this week only 5 or 6 days ago, so this one does look like a very welcome runner.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

ECMWF also showing High Pressure over the UK from the 10th, As Frosty says very warm for parts of the Southern half of the UK. The warmer weather was always Model'd for the back end of the 1st week of June, Other than the waxing and waning of the High giving mixed detail's as usual during a predicted pattern change at his range.. So far so good.

 

ecmt850.240.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a blip for some parts on Saturday it looks like high pressure will rebuild and potentially dominate most of next week the exact position of the high will of course be crucial for cloud amounts and temperatures but with a north westerly wind looking unlikely at this stage it should be pleasantly warm for most, with some sunshine and mostly dry

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

A pleasing outlook from both the Euro and GFS. After rebuilding pressure at day 5, both models keep high pressure over and west of the UK until at least day 9. While being west increases the danger of eventual retrogression, it does mean probable lower humidity and much more pleasant temperatures in the low twenties. 

 

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Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z looks warm and anticyclonic next week with temperatures into the low 20's celsius, if it happens, it will be the best weeks weather since april. :)

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

It's easy to get drawn into the discussion of negative nao and Greenland having higher heights as is the same for winter negative nao can also favour very sustainable heat.

Summer this year could well be heading towards a very warm humid summer.

With fequent thundery outbreaks but air source soon to be replaced by more of a south west, south,

and east south east flow over time.

once this pattern is established and the more la nina type upper atmosphere is replaced by a more el nino upper atmosphere things could progress into a much more sustained and fairly hot conditions by the time we reach July.

At the moment we are having the models deal with a more mobile spring type of pattern.

But over all the models are slowly building confidence in a more summery looking picture.

I believe it won't be long before summer is here for certain starting this weekend building futher through June.

Very optimistic that shorts and bqq will become a common topic with a sluggish mjo phase but very much in favour of a more summer like outlook.

The up and coming runs will bring futher optimism over the coming days I'm confident of that.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Are you basing your assumption just on the gfs? :cc_confused:

 

erm... its not 'just one' gfs run thats suggesting mid latitude high pressure dominance next week. so no.

 

Looks like the ideal summer scenario to me..could be the best 2 weeks of the summer if it comes to pass?

 

thats the million dollar point though, assuming we do get it, will it be the only decent spell of the summer?... who knows, but for now im happy to get what the charts are suggesting..... as long as we dont get too much cloud off the north sea . this is possible early on in particular IF the high is orientated so.

ive kept mentioning 'june 1975'... and whilst we havnt had the snow (40 years ago today!) and possibly not the high temps that made the first week in june extra-ordinary, there are very strong parellels this year... it has started off cold and will get warmer as the week progresses.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

In contrast to the above post, I note that recent GEFS are trending the upper trough back to our shores as week 2 ends.

 

Yes, As shown on the 6z. 

 

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes, As shown on the 6z. 

 

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Certainly not obvious on the anomaly. The LP is nearer N. Scandinavia.

 

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Working on ens rather than ops beyond 7 days

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Whilst nothing particularly concerning there , we have a nice space for something to appear.

Note that the extended ecm ens also edge the upper trough in though showing a sceuro high anomoly to our East.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

erm... its not 'just one' gfs run thats suggesting mid latitude high pressure dominance next week. so no.

 

 

thats the million dollar point though, assuming we do get it, will it be the only decent spell of the summer?... who knows, but for now im happy to get what the charts are suggesting..... as long as we dont get too much cloud off the north sea . this is possible early on in particular IF the high is orientated so.

ive kept mentioning 'june 1975'... and whilst we havnt had the snow (40 years ago today!) and possibly not the high temps that made the first week in june extra-ordinary, there are very strong parellels this year... it has started off cold and will get warmer as the week progresses.

Indeed I agree with this

ok no snow but still pretty cool for time of year.

last remnants of spring being flushed out.

turning point is happening and the normal flip flop we seen alot of for many months now.

But as nino becomes more dominated then things will get a little more straight forward of coarse not totally as the weather does what it wishes but seeing heights building to our sw and west over time edging closer and closer to the uk until the warmth flood gates open.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

In contrast to the above post, I note that recent GEFS are trending the upper trough back to our shores as week 2 ends.

 

oh dont get me wrong here, im not suggesting that this june will follow '75s , next weeks high im sure isnt 'here to stay' for the summer. i was just compareing this week to the corresponding week in 75.

apologies if my last post could be construed as such.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gefs 6z mean indicates strong support for a pleasantly warm anticyclonic spell next week. The latest MO update also settled and warm next week. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Indeed I agree with this

ok no snow but still pretty cool for time of year.

last remnants of spring being flushed out.

turning point is happening and the normal flip flop we seen alot of for many months now.

But as nino becomes more dominated then things will get a little more straight forward of coarse not totally as the weather does what it wishes but seeing heights building to our sw and west over time edging closer and closer to the uk until the warmth flood gates open.

Nino and Nina do not guarantee good/bad outcomes.

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Precious little sign of any genuine warmth on the 12 GFS, with the HP remaining centred out west and drawing N or NE winds down across much of the UK. Given the time of year of course with the sun pretty much at it's highest point it should feel pleasant out of the breeze, especially across the Southwest and Wales where it's been particularly cold and wet of late, but counties bordering the N Sea coast are likely the feel distinctly chilly at times next week - with cloud thickening sufficiently to produce some showery rain at times.

 

Post 216hrs it doesn't really stretch the imagination to see the high regress into the Atlantic and open the door to a very cool northerly flow, with LP eventually setting up shop over the top of us once again towards mid month.

Edited by coldcomfort
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