Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking like a knife edge situation as to whether we join in the the fun and games, or whether we see low twenties whilst the continent bakes to a cinder.

[knocker]

Latest EC32 update

 

Starting with Tuesday 30th the familiar scenario of trough to the west and ridge reaching over the SE of England. The trough more influential but temps very warm in England.

 

By Tuesday the seventh the trough has weakened and the ridge moved east and the Azores HP pushed north. Thus essentially a westerly flow over the UK and temps around average except in the SE.

 

By Tuesday the 14th the ridge to the east becoming a general area of weak HP, increasing pressure in western Atlantic and a continuation of the westerly flow. Temps a tad above average in the south, average in the north of England and below in Scotland.

 

Essentially there is not much change with this scenario until the end of the run on the 24th July. The Azores HP controlling proceedings centred SW mid Atlantic and thus retaining a westerly flow  Temps around average in England and below in Scotland.

 

Summary

 

Some very warm weather between the 30th and the 8th July but apart from that generally pleasant in July, dry and no breaking any temp records and in fact generally perhaps a touch below average in Scotland.

Edited June 23, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

Here Mushy

 

cheers...

if im interpreting this correctly, then the gfs has the general picture about right according to the noaa anom. BUT its shifted the pattern eastward by 500 odd miles. if this is correct then the uk would be under much warmer/hot weather longer. no sustained heatwave, but not as quick to bring in the atlantic as the gfs 00z suggests .

the ecm (12z) yesterday also does support a longer spell of heat , but the 00z is due out in half an hour or so and might be more in line with the noaa @ day 10.

until then, theres a lot of pleasant, warm, very warm, dry sunny weather to enjoy this weel then early next week. (away from the northwest).  a pretty good outlook into july, lots of decent summer weather.

[bluearmy]

The ecm op continues to be progressive compared to the ens mean and anomolys.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes the ECMWF is more progressive as BA says, The GFS pushes the High further North over the East of the UK. With Temps possibly touching 35C in the S/E.. Will be interesting how the Models play this out over the coming days.

 

Edited June 23, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 23RD 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will cover Southern Britain with a warm front crossing East and NE over NW Britain tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK breaking up over the next few days before settling in a strong for the time of year West to East motion across the UK from late this week. It then backs to a South to North flow for a time later next week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows  a set pattern in the next week with several days of warm and fine weather interrupted on several occasions by a trough of Low pressure crossing East over the UK bringing a spell of rain followed by fresher air on a westerly breeze. Then later next week things turn more generally changeable and cooler with rain or showers at times for most as Low pressure moves in close to or over the UK from the West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the trend of the operational in full this morning and though day to day differences in synoptics are notable next week the message of a lot of fine weather with just brief cooler weather following several bands of rain and then more generally changeable conditions thereafter is very much the message from GFS this morning.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today indicate High pressure out to the SW with a ridge slightly further away than recently, sufficiently so to allow fronts to cross from the West or NW at times.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure to the South and SE of the UK with several days of fine and warm or very warm weather in the SE for a time before fresher and cooler conditions following a cold front passes over on Friday. Then with High pressure to the South and Low to the NW a SW flow will carry rain at times to the North and West with better conditions in the South and East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data pretty well this morning with High pressure always closest to the South but with occasional fronts crossing from the West each bringing thicker cloud and occasional rain especially in the North and West.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure areas crossing the North with a Westerly flow for all areas from the weekend with rain at times especially in the North. The South flirts with warm and dry weather at times and as next week progresses the model shows hot air wafting North close to the SE and at the same time Low pressure to the West of the UK pushing East into the humid air and sparking some thundery rain or storms late in the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a Westerly flow too at the weekend with some rain at times towards the North with very little further South. Then as we move into next week there seems a desire to slacken the pattern while maintaining a light SW drift. With warm and humid air close to the South some thundery showers are indicated by the middle of next week almost anywhere.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning is very supportive of West or SW winds blowing across the UK for much of the period covered by this morning's run. While warm or hot and humid air is never far away from the South and SE it is for the most parts kept the other side of the channel with the UK under the influence of Low pressure to the North and NW with occasional rain and showers almost anywhere at times but precious little for much of the time across the South and SE excepting the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two if any troughs from the West engage the hot air to the SE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW with a slack SW flow likely across the British Isles. In such a pattern the South and East would continue to see the driest and warmest conditions with the North and West at risk of rain or showers at times

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a weak Westerly or SW flow across the UK longer term.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.5 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.8 pts with GFS at 83.1 pts and UKMO at 81.5 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.3 pts to 22.2 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS We lie on the edge of some true Summer weather over the next few weeks. The European continent is expected to warm up big time in the coming days as an Atlantic depression to the NW of the UK pumps up some very warm air from Spain across most European nations. For the UK we lie right on the periphery of this but far enough away to not benefit from the very highest temperatures that they look like receiving. Instead we will have to put up with a warm SW feed delivering plenty of humid, fine and bright weather in the South and East while the North and West are shown to stay far more changeable and cooler with rain at times. There will of course be an ebb and flow in these conditions with the hot air to the SE possibly making it into the SE at times and if that happes at the same time as a trough feeds in from the unsettled NW some electrical storms could occur very locally. This is hinted at by some output later next week. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that High pressure will conquer a rejuvenated Jet flow across the UK enough to spread the hottest air far into the UK before it gets pushed back towards the SE again. So as it stands this morning it's a case of so near and yet so far for big time heat but don't despair there is nothing unpleasant or threatening in the charts this morning which means a lot of fine June and early July weather looks likely with the odd shower or outbreak of rain always possible but as usual for this time of year, mostly in the NW.

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 24th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Not only a hot start to July on this run but just look at the cape could be some torrential thunderstorms as well as the heat

 

 

Humidity levels extremely high as well touching 98.6F in the south

 

Edited June 23, 2015 by Summer Sun

[karlos1983]

Latest EC32 update

 

Starting with Tuesday 30th the familiar scenario of trough to the west and ridge reaching over the SE of England. The trough more influential but temps very warm in England.

 

By Tuesday the seventh the trough has weakened and the ridge moved east and the Azores HP pushed north. Thus essentially a westerly flow over the UK and temps around average except in the SE.

 

By Tuesday the 14th the ridge to the east becoming a general area of weak HP, increasing pressure in western Atlantic and a continuation of the westerly flow. Temps a tad above average in the south, average in the north of England and below in Scotland.

 

Essentially there is not much change with this scenario until the end of the run on the 24th July. The Azores HP controlling proceedings centred SW mid Atlantic and thus retaining a westerly flow  Temps around average in England and below in Scotland.

 

Summary

 

Some very warm weather between the 30th and the 8th July but apart from that generally pleasant in July, dry and no breaking any temp records and in fact generally perhaps a touch below average in Scotland.

 

I hope your right knocker, I'm off to the British GP 2nd-5th July & i really don't fancy being knee deep in mud.

[Guest]

Standard GFS this morning in its 06Z run. What it giveth in the 00Z it now takes away, a major punting eastwards of the plume for the middle of next week. Next Wednesday now 13/14C cooler than was progged in the prior run.

 

Also notice the deteriation in conditions Friday through Monday, increasing cloud, rain and drizzle from decaying fronts that become trapped across the UK, with a flatter Jet and less oomph from HP ridging up from the South another mediocre weekend looking increasingly unlikely.

 

In effect FI starts next Monday but given the models continued mis-positioning of plumes intitially to far west in the 6-8day range it looks increasingly likely the 06Z run will be fairly close to the mark with maybe one warmish day in the extreme south east before a buckled jet and assocaited trough becomes established over the UK later next week.

 

What a happy first post - sorry!!!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z saved the best until last, temperatures into the 90's F in the south through early July.

[legritter]

Standard GFS this morning in its 06Z run. What it giveth in the 00Z it now takes away, a major punting eastwards of the plume for the middle of next week. Next Wednesday now 13/14C cooler than was progged in the prior run.

 

Also notice the deteriation in conditions Friday through Monday, increasing cloud, rain and drizzle from decaying fronts that become trapped across the UK, with a flatter Jet and less oomph from HP ridging up from the South another mediocre weekend looking increasingly unlikely.

 

In effect FI starts next Monday but given the models continued mis-positioning of plumes intitially to far west in the 6-8day range it looks increasingly likely the 06Z run will be fairly close to the mark with maybe one warmish day in the extreme south east before a buckled jet and assocaited trough becomes established over the UK later next week.

 

What a happy first post - sorry!!!

A big welcome  Alderc and your post sums up what i was about to post ,and if projected low pressure also from other charts arrives we will be chasing for a day wth the bbq ,but as always things could move back later ,thats the weather game ,lets hope it changes cheers 

[Guest]

A big welcome  Alderc and your post sums up what i was about to post ,and if projected low pressure also from other charts arrives we will be chasing for a day wth the bbq ,but as always things could move back later ,thats the weather game ,lets hope it changes cheers 

 

Thank you for the welcome

 

I think the GFS 06Z Ops run will be well and truly within the pack with regards to where it sits within its respective ensembles, the prior run was bordering on a outlier at the top end.

 

We can but hope for a less agressive and less flat Jet position but I think any chance of a major plume being reintroduced for early to mid next week appear to unlikley at best.

 

Good old GFS out in the far reaches of FI whams the UK with 22C 850's, pretty sure this will be a whooping outlier and should absolutely be ignored. Its a bit like that super hot girl on beach you occasionally see, proper tasty to look at but zero chance of getting too near you!

[Polar Maritime]

No run should be ignored, No matter what it shows. Lets wait and see..

Edited June 23, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, one thing we can be sure about next week is it's not going to be cool, the southeast in particular looks like having generally warm / very warm and humid weather next week and most of the UK looks rather warm, low 20's celsius with the south / southeast having a more continental southerly flow, nearer mid to high 20's celsius. The north and west of the BI look very unsettled next week with spells of heavy rain but with fine intervals and temps around average. The southeast is likely to have the best of the sunshine and dry weather but with a risk of occasional heavy and thundery rain. It's a fairly typical summer nw/se split with lower heights to the northwest and continental high pressure to the southeast.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Frosty.

[Guest]

No run should be ignored, No matter what it shows. Lets wait and see..

 

The whole point of an ensemble package is to gauge a general concensous, admitedly while nothing should be completely ruled out the fact that 22C 850s are bordering all time record levels in the UK, its 384hours away and the fact FI begins at about 120hrs at the moment means.....well it should be pretty much ignored (99.99999% ignored maybe)

[Methuselah]

The whole point of an ensemble package is to gauge a general concensous, admitedly while nothing should be completely ruled out the fact that 22C 850s are bordering all time record levels in the UK, its 384hours away and the fact FI begins at about 120hrs at the moment means.....well it should be pretty much ignored (99.99999% ignored maybe)

I thought ensembles were there as a gauge of the likely accuracy of operationals, and to indicate likely future trends? The most discernible trend I can see is for Europe's hot weather to extend gradually north and northwest...As for day-to-day details; we all know how unpredictable they are...   

 

Welcome to the forum, Alderc.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Catacol]

Met Office text is for unsettled and warm to start July, and then unsettled and cool from the 7th. No sign yet of any sustained heat.

[cheese]

Met Office text is for unsettled and warm to start July, and then unsettled and cool from the 7th. No sign yet of any sustained heat.

Well, that's a little misleading - it says it may be slightly cooler than average in the west, but around or just above average in the east and southeast - very warm at first. So again, location dependent.

Edited June 23, 2015 by cheese

[Paul]

One thing that isn't misleading is the title of this thread - Model output discussion!

 

So please can we discuss the met office forecasts in the appropriate place rather than in here, thanks.

[Man With Beard]

Regardless of the exact path of the plume for next Monday/Tuesday, longer term the ensembles continue to go in the same direction - between T168 and T240, the trough to our west actually retreats slightly and the upper high creeps into southern parts of the UK more and more. Both GFS and ECM show this, and have consistently shown this. I suggest therefore that the first attempt at the plume is unlikely to be the end of the story for summery weather.

[Tamara]

Met Office text is for unsettled and warm to start July, and then unsettled and cool from the 7th. No sign yet of any sustained heat.

 

I wrote a summary the other day which differed to that appraisal/interpretation, and I'm not sure that the professionals (such as the METO), with the better experience and knowledge and also better access to greater data than most of us internet pundits, would agree with the "cool and unsettled" headline either - based on current guidance anyway

 

The part that is easier to relate to is there being no sign of "sustained heat" - but then achieving this in the UK is often as elusive in a standard winter as achieving sustained cold in winter. Much as said in my previous post.

 

As outlined in the previous summary, the watchword is changeable - not homogenously cool however, and many southern and eastern parts look set to see a fair amount of warm/very warm and humid weather.

 

Under the changing atmospheric regime from a Nina to more tuned in Nino influence, we see mainland Europe heat up quite significantly from the south. In relative terms, perhaps heat up rather more than is the usual for early/mid summer.

 

This change is now firmly signposted within AAM tendency with, as suspected previously, no further negative tendency Phase 1 signposted in the Global Wind Oscillation orbit.  The trend is firmly now into low amplitude +AAM tendency

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfs1.png

 

This is important, as we turn a page away from the North Atlantic being flooded with renewed bursts of below average temperatures. However, as discussed below, we still have the legacy of a long period of cyclical low AAM imprint to deal with -which helped perpetuate and imprint those cold SST anomalies through persistent trajectory of the jet stream angling down E/SE from Canada and Greenland during most of the winter and spring.

 

As mentioned the other day, the indicated GWO orbit supports the persistence of the Atlantic trough and a downstream pressure rise through southern and mainland Europe, close at times to SE UK. To achieve a further adjustment of the jet stream further NW, taking the main upper trough further NW, a further boost in AAM tendency would help.

 

Such a possible re-cycle continues to be a watch for the longer term.

 

Here is especially where perspective and reality about "sustained heat"  (which, expectantly, gets mentioned a lot on this thread) needs to managed. There is indeed a lot of heat to our south and east - which is not going to move far away at any time - and further jet stream adjustment, as described, will assist the process of re-distributing that further north and west. 

 

However, with the cold SST anomalies as they are over our nearby ocean, extra effort is going to be required for the UK to be far enough away from a temperature gradient boundary that will naturally occur and spawn troughing where these temperature contrasts meet.

 

Seasonal wave lengths should play their part in assisting the pattern more favourably for us, but, as stated previously, it will be a gradual and almost insidious process - starting to occur more probably the further we head towards mid summer and beyond.

 

Into the medium term, this doesn't mean cool and unsettled conditions are going to prevail nationwide. It does mean though that changeable conditions remain the watchword, and as one who prefers just pleasant summer warmth rather than heat, it is not said with any personal bias that the greatest chance of tapping into some of that extra heat continues to be south eastern parts of the UK over the coming 10 to 15 days at least anyway

 

For those interested in looking for hope of some at least better sustained heat ( and those in the NW would be glad of any warmth I am sure  ) then for the time being its waiting on further developments as we head through the coming month

 

@rbw   Yes, it is quite possible   As I said the other day, its only quite small adjustments to the jet stream that will mean significantly warmer conditions over a wider area - with those further north west who would most notice the difference, even though the highest uppers will always be further south and east

Edited June 23, 2015 by Tamara

[Man With Beard]

As outlined in the previous summary..

Great summary as usual Tamara, and probably not far off. Don't you think, though, with heat being so close by on the continent, that it is actually too close to call further than 7 days out? I can certainly foresee a scenario where, from D7 to D14, most of England has a week of well above average temperatures - simply through a 200 mile shift on the current ensemble position?

Edited June 23, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To reduce long quote.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Bit like Cherry-Picking really I'd admit, but the 00Z GEM (which will soon become out of date as the GEM 12Z comes out) continues to offer a treat for those over Southern UK who would like to see some hot, plumey, conditions - the model shows some very hot air getting pumped into Southern and South-Eastern areas via warm Southerly/South-Westerly flow with the 20*C 850 hPa temperatures brushing the far South-East at times. Probably one of the better operational models this morning for hot weather for the middle of next week:

North-Western areas again would probably remain cooler and perhaps cloudier. As such, not totally brilliant run for all of the UK in FI (if very warm and plume-like conditions is what you are after), unless your over Southern/South-Eastern UK. A chance, though, that any monstrous storms that develop over the UK, most especially towards the South-East could be slow moving in the slack Southerly flow. Without running the risk of trying to over analyse model runs in FI, would perhaps ideally need a bit more of a negative tilt to the surface and upper Lows in the Atlantic to back the flow over the UK more to the South-East. All of that happening while ensuring blocking to the East of the UK in mainland Europe remains robust to advect the very warm air over Southern UK further North. (something that the 00Z GEM does kinda do at 216 hours. Have, however, doodled on the chart to show what I mean):

At least something along those lines should hot and possibly thundery conditions still be something you want to see. Think I remember someone saying that getting areas of Low Pressure in the Atlantic to dig far enough South to the West of the UK, help aided by an area of amplified heights to the West of it in the Western Atlantic area towards North-Eastern Northern America, could ensure heights build strongly to the East of the UK over Europe. This of which being something to look out for when seeing possibilities of hot stormy weather developing on future model runs.

Personally, and again it is still one run despite yesterday's 00Z GEM showing 20*C 850 hPa temperatures over Southern/Central UK, I do feel the GEM is overdoing how far South troughing digs in the Atlantic - the pattern just seems a touch too amplified and looks a bit odd. And I think to get the 20*C 850 hPa temperature line over the British Isles is rare, particularly for Northern UK, and would require an exceptional set-up. But not totally unfeasible.

Anyway, getting a bit carried away now since these possibilities are clearly still a while away. Will probably be one of those cases where a middle-ground solution occurs between the 06Z GFS's eagerness to quickly push the pattern too East and the GEM's more hotter plume-like conditions. Should the plume fail the mission it's not a complete disaster with further opportunities down the line (and hopefully not one of those situations where the plumes keep getting stuck, like super-glue, in the dreamland zone. I guess, though, the failure of the possible hot and thundery weather would be good news for those who despise that kind of weather). There's at least some trends to see some possible warm weather next week, particularly across the South-East of the UK closer to any areas of High Pressure over mainland Europe, with a flow from the South-West at times.

Edit: Think it is how Tamara says, looking out for further evolutions regarding the models and the weather patterns to see how things shape up.

Edited June 23, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[bluearmy]

With gfs ops heading ever closer to the progressive ecm op script run by run, the GEM throws out another barmy run with uppers of 23c over se UK!!

Can't believe that ecm 12z will revert to amplified but you never know

[I remember Atlantic 252]

With gfs ops heading ever closer to the progressive ecm op script run by run, the GEM throws out another barmy run with uppers of 23c over se UK!!

Can't believe that ecm 12z will revert to amplified but you never know

 

GEM ay, suggests centre court furnace!!!!!!!!