Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[A.J]

Hope springs eternal going by some posts here. I'd say you are delusional if you think there is not going to be some heatwave of some form. The charts I've seen exemplify we're heading for a realm we've not seen since 2006. I think this justifies some caution, tone down in excitement as potentially lives may be lost but endeavouring is never without challenge. And the sad fact that's the way it is. I think all should respect people's likes and dislikes and find understanding in others ideologies. It may not suit you - but then again who asked you to retaliate, honesty is the best policy with the charts to verify. I have seen all the models and there's growing communality of a hot old week there's no going back from this. Enjoy as such synoptics come roughly every 5-10 years. It is just the weather and it will do what it pleases.

fine sentiments, but this is the model discussion thread, it is to be expected that this thread will be of occasionally heated (no pun intended) debate with wildly differing viewpoints, indeed it is encouraged providing forum etiquette is observed. Without wanting to sound dispassionate,  the health repercussions of the upcoming hot spell are probably better stated and discussed in another thread 

[Frosty.]

Hot off the press. If you will pardon the pun, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows rock solid support for a hot and humid spell next week with a risk of thunderstorms, we are on course for a heatwave.

[knocker]

And some early relief for the retired folks

 

[Alex]

Just adding to the people who say the ground isn't dry enough for v high temps. Well they are in Essex. The ground is rock solid! I can't speak for the rest of the country but it's very very dry here.

[mhielte]

Just adding to the people who say the ground isn't dry enough for v high temps. Well they are in Essex. The ground is rock solid! I can't speak for the rest of the country but it's very very dry here.

 

It's been very dry especially further south, IIRC? I know we haven't had the temperatures to back up this summer so far but it's been far from a washout. It's inevitable some try to poke holes in the upcoming spell, it's human nature, and when we've been teased with heatwaves (likewise cold snaps in winter) that have pushed away east, it's difficult to take and we expect the same old fate when the charts throw up the eye-candy. The difference here is we're getting closer to this heatwave, and the models are in broad agreement with eachother. We have strong heights to our east, accurately modeled and supported in the ensembles for both ECM and GFS. I doubt records will be broken but 35C is looking increasingly likely given the longevity of the heat and the dry conditions.

[h2005__uk__]

I'm also in Chelmsford and I've recorded 9.3mm of rain so far this month - just 19% of the average June total of 50mm here. Looking on course to be the driest month since my records began (Sep 2013)!

[Nick L]

Can we get back to the models please? There are threads in the general weather area for discussions on how dry it's been.

 

Thanks.

[knocker]

This evening's anomalies are pretty much in agreement at day ten. With the ridge to our east and the trough to the west but still close enough for a SW drift and temps above average and possibilities of small scale developments. In the ext period both go for the trough to relax and a more flat zonal flow.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 26, 2015 by knocker

[Cheshire Freeze]

Copied from the banter thread in reply to Scorcher:

 

Yes....I've been quite open about the fact that I suspected we'd have a period of hot weather at some point before August. I don't think in any way it will be sustained as a mean summer pattern though and yes I still believe we'll end up with a wet, potentially very wet period.

 

Even with these hot charts you can see the N blocking in evidence...it has all the hallmarks of a poor set up thereafter i.e a warm continent and the potential for slow moving trough should pressure migrate westwards....flooding rains....(FI eventually gets to something akin to this for reference if you want to see what I mean)

 

 

It could be the case that this is the transitional period but I s'pose it's not a bad one to face...

 

Essentially you're riding your luck with a mean high placed out NE because given the path of the jet stream i.e NW-SE you're just waiting for a slight increase in energy to scoop that high over the top of the trough and in towards the Greenland locale....which is what I think the eventual end game will be. Anyhoo, might aswell enjoy what is progged at present!

 

Mark my words on this one if you'd like though....this will be a flash in the pan spell....maybe ala Dec 2010 but shorter. Look at the differences between now and during the middle of a more sustained spell like '76..

 

 

Notice the low heights over Greenland which we don't have this time; the polar profile is the opposite in truth. Without these lower heights to the N/NW of us a protracted spell like '76 is totally out of the equation. You can see with the '76 evolution you essentially had the jet headed SW-NE in axis with low heights locked in over Greenland. The Azores high reinvigorated time and time again, reinforcing the heights over the UK...once again the direction of travel mirroring the jet SW-NE.

 

 

 

I'd put a lot of money on the middle third of summer being a lot wetter.

[nick sussex]

The thing is CC is you can remain in warm/hot conditions even with higher pressure over Greenland if the set up results in a western based negative NAO.

 

Regardless I think for heat lovers a flash in the pan is still better than no pan! lol

[karlos1983]

Could see flights grounded in that heat

[Captain Shortwave]

Ironic talking about Greenland heights causing wet and cool weather when it is the very evolution that has banished the persistent Atlantic ridging and has brought warmer weather this week and actually is an aid to trap low heights in the Atlantic for the real heat to build next week.

Anyway there is definitely a suggestion that the heat could stay with us into the beginning of next weekend, beyond that the ensembles suggest a flattening of the pattern into a more typical but still very warm Euro high pattern with some rain at times in the north west, not that it will be right of course.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

The thing is CC is you can remain in warm/hot conditions even with higher pressure over Greenland if the set up results in a western based negative NAO.

 

Regardless I think for heat lovers a flash in the pan is still better than no pan! lol

 

Completely agree, as I've said on the banter page it's just what I see unfolding infront of my eyes...all pretty text book so far. It's the same as trying to achieve a sustained cold period in winter without a stable HLB....it's possible to get a decent spell of winter weather without but you're relying on the pattern to keep reloading as many times as possible before the jet eventually crashes in.

 

As much as people seek heat, they can't be so blind as to not see the elephant in the room RE where we head after this plume event (taking into account potential reloads)??

 

I do get the impression that some on here think I'm here to wind people up but I'm genuinely not- I try to be as pragmatic as possible when looking at the information in front of me and in extrapolation of where we may be headed next. Unfortunately some people would disagree with me and say black was white for the sake of an argument. Taking aside hemispheric drivers I think I justified my assertions well enough in my previous post. It's getting fairly tedious to post on here at all tbh.

Edited June 26, 2015 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

Completely agree, as I've said on the banter page it's just what I see unfolding infront of my eyes...all pretty text book so far. It's the same as trying to achieve a sustained cold period in winter without a stable HLB....it's possible to get a decent spell of winter weather without but you're relying on the pattern to keep reloading as many times as possible before the jet eventually crashes in.

 

As much as people seek heat, they can't be so blind as to not see the elephant in the room RE where we head after this plume event (taking into account potential reloads)??

 

I do get the impression that some on here think I'm here to wind people up but I'm genuinely not- I try to be as pragmatic as possible when looking at the information in front of me and in extrapolation of where we may be headed next. Unfortunately some people would disagree with me and say black was white for the sake of an argument. Taking aside hemispheric drivers I think I justified my assertions well enough in my previous post. It's getting fairly tedious to post on here at all tbh.

Sorry you feel like that, I for one think it's an interesting idea you put out there and certainly a heatwave now is no guarantee of a heatwave all summer. You may well be right but I do have two observations:

1. Some ens charts are already weakening northern heights by D10

2. Without any scientific justification, I am a great believer in repeating patterns. What's going on now seems like a pattern change that may define the rest of the season, or at least part of it. OK - that might result in the trough eventually finding its way on top of us, but maybe the scuero ridge will be the key driver. Time will tell!

[cheese]

18z has things further east, so not as hot - albeit still very warm, but it reaches the low 30s on Thursday and that's it. Guess it's an indicator that the full extent of the heat is far from nailed on just yet.

 

Still, as they say - only one run - and variances are to be expected, as we saw a few days ago.

[Costa Del Fal]

Disappointing 18z tbh for heat lovers after Friday. Massive changes after then but highlights the volatile situation. Still high confidence in hot conditions Tuesday-Thursday still tbh.

Start of a new trend? Though not worth much worrying in 1 run when other main models are showing quite remarkable consistency.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[BlueHedgehog074]

Quite nice to see the Model thread busy tonight. Almost like a night in Winter where you get pages and pages of posts from excited members when snowy charts emerge in FI, which I guess is not too surprising considering what the hot and storm enthusiasts could be up against next week. The different flavour of posts from detailed analysis, critic posts, ecstatic one-liners, comical pictures and intense debates gives it that sort of community spirit that you recognise from the thread... as longs people try to stay on-topic and be respectful that is.

Don't really want to repeat what many have said, but does look like some big fights will occur between High Pressure systems to the East/North-East of the UK and the Atlantic trough to our West. A great chance of the UK being in the centre of the two opposing forces with opportunities for some very warm and hot air to get swallowed Northwards over the UK from the continent at times. The closer the Atlantic trough tries to bite, the more it could invade the British Isles with some big, bad, storms (although the wrong angle of attack could mean more of a frontal mess. But considering the possibilities of how much warm air could affect us, particularly for the South and South-East, then the possible attacks from the Atlantic/Southern UK troughing could easily lead to loads of instability to produces some torrential storms).

And looking at the latest NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart, looks as though some duels could continue between Atlantic troughs to the West of the British Isles and the ridging Highs to our East. No real cool down seems look likely yet should it be right, especially the further East/South-East of the UK you are, with an upper flow from the South-West. The Atlantic trough possibly being close enough to maybe influence the weather at times towards Western/North-Western UK. The anomaly chart appears to have been quite consistent with this sort of setup in the last few days.

[summer blizzard]

Talk about progressive.. GFS has Friday's feature essentially complete the breakdown alone..

 

[h2005__uk__]

Earlier this evening, WeatherPro was going for Wed 32C, Thu 32C, Fri 30C, Sat 27C in London..... it now says Wed 32C, Thu 33C, Fri 32C, Sat 31C.

 

What model does that use? It can't be based on the GFS judging by the 18z.

Edited June 26, 2015 by h2005uk

[Guest]

Massive downgrade on this mornings 00z GFS run, with a slower weaker push of heat, only Wednesday reaches 30c and its effectively all over by the end of of the week as the Atlantic ploughs in. After several days of such model consistency I find this a worrying development especially following a progressive 18z run. If this is the way things goes and this does turn into another one day wonder it really would be extrmely frustrating from a model watching perspective.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Massive downgrade on this mornings 00z GFS run, with a slower weaker push of heat, only Wednesday reaches 30c and its effectively all over by the end of of the week as the Atlantic ploughs in. After several days of such model consistency I find this a worrying development especially following a progressive 18z run. If this is the way things goes and this does turn into another one day wonder it really would be extrmely frustrating from a model watching perspective.

Not really a downgrade from my perspective.....

Still an awesome run with 34c likely to be reached. Your talking as if it was like what it was 2-3 weeks ago!

This isn't no average chart!

Edited June 27, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[knocker]

Early relief for Cornwall as LP nudges in midweek and plume plummets. Still pleasantly warm for weekend.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 27, 2015 by knocker

[stainesbloke]

Massive downgrade on this mornings 00z GFS run, with a slower weaker push of heat, only Wednesday reaches 30c and its effectively all over by the end of of the week as the Atlantic ploughs in. After several days of such model consistency I find this a worrying development especially following a progressive 18z run. If this is the way things goes and this does turn into another one day wonder it really would be extrmely frustrating from a model watching perspective.

Not the best run for longevity of heat agreed, but the GFS flip flops a lot and we're talking about conditions a week away...a long time in model watching! The anomaly charts support much warmer weather which is encouraging, the ECM is roasting as are other models (navgem is plain ridiculous). Loads of us want a proper hot spell with high temps and storms, that's what summer is about for me personally so I'll always look for that in the charts. If the charts were now showing NW'lys again and 18C maxes then I'd be really annoyed but even with the 'downgrade' it will still be warm, plenty of time for upgrades too. Deep breaths!!

Edited June 27, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Not really a downgrade from my perspective.....

Still an awesome run with 34c likely to be reached. Your talking as if it was like what it was 2-3 weeks ago!

This isn't no average chart!

To be honest taking this run at face value 34c is very unlikely , infact this to me looks a lot more plausible given our location , and going by experience and history this mornings gfs is more realistic than the extreme scenarios previously been shown . I would welcome the more extreme scenario for the simple fact I'm a weather enthusiast and love extremes , but it's getting hot for 3 days. Then mid twenties for maybe another 2/3 days so still a lovely summery outlook , however I personally see this more likely . Although don't expect us to be that unsettled like it shows later . Let's see how this pans out.

[bluearmy]

Squeaky bum time !

Most models nudge the heat further east and bring the thundery trough thorough more cleanly this morning.

Happy with my call that this first wave will not topple the July record. However, If there is a renewed surge of high uppers beyond next weekend with less frontal activity embedded then we could be in business.

Edited June 27, 2015 by bluearmy