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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

well the anomaly charts were having non of the westerlies the ops were insistent of recently, thats worth noting for future reference.

and the noaa 8-14 day anomaly chart has been pretty consistent with this furture pattern

post-2797-0-74321100-1435212595_thumb.gi

so its not suggesting a lasting high pressure domination, or lasting heatwave. but its still a decent , warm, summery outlook.

id have thought this day 11 chart looks close to what the above anomaly chart suggest?..
 

post-2797-0-30558100-1435212760_thumb.gi

correct me if im wrong :)

but a fantastic output, with a real hot spell developing next week ! followed by something a little less extreme but still good. :)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

amzing output this morning!!no downgrades and the heatwave is still showing for next week!!!ukmo a little further east but am sure it will back everything further west this evening!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Yes anomalies have led the op charts in recent days

ECM rolling out, another extreme run with 20C 850s over many parts for two whole days, records under threat again from that, certainly local ones if not the all-time record.

I note there are still a few GFS ensemble members going for something - shall we say - less hot. Its worth remembering how hard it is to get the 20C line into the UK, and quite a few things need to fall into place yet - especially the strength of ridging to our east and the speed of any thundery low moving up from the south. Its still possible for the main plume to end up further east - or even west this time. However, I think its very unlikely that temperatures will not reach 30C at some point somewhere - there would need to be a major modelling error for that now, and the key elements ( trough west, high east) have been modelled quite stably for a while now.

The longevity has been questioned too, but best bet for me is heat gradually building back in the days after the plume is pushed away, not hot to the same extent probably and perhaps with more of a NW / SE split this time. So a short pause next weekend before another spell of hot sunny weather for many, perhaps. So much water to go under the bridge before then, though.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Immensely complex evolution next week - we haven't seen the correct solution yet - I'm confident about that but the envelope is now quite well defined in size.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Morning all , yes very good summery charts yet again this morning for next week . This time next to have that magic 20 850's over us is truly a rarerity

post-9095-0-66791400-1435216575_thumb.jp

So a hot spell from Tuesday looks a good bet , and by next weekend we are under hot sultry conditions with slack low pressure over the country , no doubt that would send pulses of thundery weather northwards , remember the thunderstorms of July 2013? Fantastic weren't they ? Always good to see continental storms head up from Spain .

post-9095-0-54449900-1435216486_thumb.jp

But a nice day today and to be honest very pleasant weather really until then , the odd day of cloud but sunny spells for many aswell .

Roll on next wk

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z says we are going to have a Spanish plume with heatwave conditions for most of next week, what a great start to the day. So good that I'm showing these again from aj's post last night..roll on next week!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 25TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge will be maintained today across Southern Britain while a warm front crosses NE over the North. This is then followed by a cold front moving in from the West across all areas tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, bright and possibly very warm weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some thundery showers in places.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow expected to blow East across the UK over the coming days up to and including the weekend. The flow then ridges North over Britain at the same time as troughing South over the Atlantic setting up a Northerly moving jet just to the West of the UK later next week.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows several more days of changeable conditions with occasional rain from troughs moving East interspersed by dry and fine weather. Then pressure builds strongly over and then to the East of the UK next week with rocketing temperatures in a SE flow. Low pressure to the West and SW is shown to spawn thundery showers and storms to Western and some Southern parts later in the week which then is shown to mark a slow decline in conditions and temperatures to a more showery and changeable pattern by the end of the run.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar but with somewhat less influence on the thundery breakdown late next week and the subsequent change to more changeable conditions with a more gentle fall off in temperatures as winds switch from SE to more of a NW or West breeze.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to influence the UK from a position to the East in a weeks time before the gradual return to more Atlantic based winds and some lower pressure sets up for the two week time period.

 


 

UKMO UKMO today shows a build of pressure from the South next week transferring to the East with the associated plume nudged further East than was shown on last night's run meaning while warmer and humid across the South and East cooler air is shown to lie close to the West and North with a trough likely to displace the warmth soon after the Day 6 chart with some thundery rain.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well just hinting at the rise in pressure by 120hrs to support a warm up from the South and setting up a change from the more changeable atlantic based theme currently.

 


 

GEM GEM shows High pressure ridging up from the South early next week being absorbed by a general rise of pressure to the North. This sets up a SE or East flow across the UK and as the warm and humid air present over the UK destabilises from the South late next week the risk of thundery rain and showers spreading North across the UK increases with time.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a NW to SE split in the weather next week with a lot of very warm and humid air with the risk of storms at time across the South and East while the North and West stay somewhat cooler with the risk of occasional lighter rain at times as the Atlantic holds some influence.

 


 

ECM ECM this morning shows the battleground next week I highlighted yesterday as High pressure builds North just to the East of the UK setting up a very warm or in the East hot Southerly flow. The cooler Atlantic air will lie close by to the West and this setup could well spawn some severe thunderstorms as the cooler air nudges the hot air out of the East late in the period with a return to more changeable and cooler Atlantic based winds with rain at times in the North and West to end the period.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure close to the NW with very warm air to the SE and where the two meet there will be a strong risk of thundery rain or showers with rather cooler air maintained over NW Britain.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.4 pts with GFS at 82.8 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 46.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 30.4 pts to 23.2 pts.

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning are still indicative that the UK will see it's strongest warm up of the season so far next week but will it be for all. The models are jostling around with a Spanish plume of heat as it is pulled North on rising pressure behind the current series of weak troughs as they move out of the UK to the East by Sunday evening. As pressure builds North and then slowly East hot Southerly or SE winds could be drawn up across the UK. The axis that the plume will lie is crucial to how much of the UK becomes affected by it with some output putting it further East to affect principally just the East and SE while some show all areas sharing in some very warm conditions for a time. Before we get too excited and used to the heat it looks like that after several days it will be displaced by the classic thundery breakdown from the South and SW and there is a strong trend to indicate a return to Atlantic Westerlies and attendant cooler air with rain at times towards the extended end to the output. So although it looks like it may not last too long there is a lot of interest next week not least from the risk of some pyrotechnics from thunderstorms as the cooler air fights back late in the week and no doubt if the breakdown is as marked as some output shows some local flash flooding issues could occur too. All too far out to call of course at the moment so while the pattern unfolds lets look forward to some very warm air on our backs next week as the synoptics finally look more akin to Summer rather than the late Spring or early Autmn cool charts that have blighted our part of the World for so long.

 

Next update from 08:00 Friday June 26th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Please can we keep discussion Model based, There is a thread open for bbc/other media forecast.

Thanks, PM.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Also the fact how many times did we see snow in the models and nothing ffrom the MO and bingo there was nothing.
I heard the first mention this morning that next week could be very warm possibly hot from Carol on Rad 2.
I think we need to say nice hot spell and cut down on the records ala burnt many times over the winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM this morning shows the 850's peaking at +22 for parts of the south coast even north east Scotland sees the 850's hitting +20

 

The hottest period according to ECM is Wednesday and Friday after this would could see some torrential thunderstorms breaking out as low pressure slowly moves in from the west introducing some fresher air

 

ECU0-144.GIF?25-12ECU0-168.GIF?25-12ECU0-192.GIF?25-12

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

My post I made 4 days ago.

 

 

''In Topic: Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

21 June 2015 - 12:37

From looking at the charts I see one thing and one thing only, Very warm to hot air gradually filtering in from the south as we head through July. Over the last week or so out in FI i have seen a trend of the hotter air towards the med gradually filter north and by the end of June engulfing the whole of mainland europe. The question to me has been will this hot air mass cross the channel and allow us our first heatwave of the summer?  I think as we head into July the awnser is now yes as the jet stream seems to progged to head north, allowing high pressure from the south to fill the void and creep ever further north.

 

If that isn't good enough I think as things heat up it will quickly go off with a bang, with some spectacular thunderstorms developing in places not to mention imports crossing the channel. The reason I say this is because the hotter weather won't be the result of a big high pressure slap bang over us capping all convection, it will be from the jet stream weakening and heading north allowing shallow ridges of high pressure to creep ever further north towards us bringing the hot air with it. Once the hot air is established we will essentially be in a COL (a breading ground for thunderstorms when you add heat) and with the jet streams influence always knocking on our door step from the north/northwest any undercutting of cooler air/breakdown IMO would lead to BIG thunderstorms, perhaps severe  ;).

Ovcoarse that is only my opinion but I am convinced this JULY will be a month to remember due to HEAT and THUNDERSTORMS  :)''

 

 

Mouth watering gfs and ECM, it is coming!!

 

 

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No messing around from the NAVGEM this morning. While it is one of the most extreme outputs, it would definitely see the record under threat.

 

And that chart if for 8PM in the evening..

 

navgemfr-8-138.png?25-07

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

No messing around from the NAVGEM this morning. While it is one of the most extreme outputs, it would definitely see the record under threat.

 

And that chart if for 8PM in the evening..

 

navgemfr-8-138.png?25-07

Not getting at you Sainsbo, you're just saying what you see which is fair enough, but surely these NAVGEM temperature charts belong in the bin. 38C at 8pm at the beginning of a heatwave? Come on!!

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No messing around from the NAVGEM this morning. While it is one of the most extreme outputs, it would definitely see the record under threat.

 

And that chart if for 8PM in the evening..

 

navgemfr-8-138.png?25-07

I think thats the max temp in the 6hours to 8pm chart.

 

Still very abrupt and very aggressive for NAVGEM, it also pulls the warmth away very quickly.

 

GEM which was the first to pull in the extreme warmth now doesn't even engage the plume of hot air and uppers of just 10-11C get pulled in. One off, or start of a trend?

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Not getting at you Sainsbo, you're just saying what you see which is fair enough, but surely these NAVGEM temperature charts belong in the bin. 38C at 8pm at the beginning of a heatwave? Come on!!

 

I don't think that the chart should be taken with the slightest bit of seriousness either, It's just that I've never seen any of the models being so agressive with their temperature forecasts, and thought it was worth a post. If it ends up being correct I will be very surprised lol

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I don't think that the chart should be taken with the slightest bit of seriousness either, It's just that I've never seen any of the models being so agressive with their temperature forecasts, and thought it was worth a post. If it ends up being correct I will be very surprised lol

 

Just on a note NAVGEM has a serious problem with predicting surface temps in warm conditions. Back in July 2013 it had maxes of 39C for a day where the actual max was only 31C, that was only 48hrs earlier so I'd ignore it.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

I think thats the max temp in the 6hours to 8pm chart.

 

Still very abrupt and very aggressive for NAVGEM, it also pulls the warmth away very quickly.

 

GEM which was the first to pull in the extreme warmth now doesn't even engage the plume of hot air and uppers of just 10-11C get pulled in. One off, or start of a trend?

Yeah I noticed that! A big call made however. It well and truly stands alone at the minute. But it did 2 days ago also... !

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

The Ecm 00z says we are going to have a Spanish plume with heatwave conditions for most of next week, what a great start to the day. So good that I'm showing these again from aj's post last night..roll on next week!

Oi, use your own meme's....lol

 

anyhoos, looks like the this man likes this morning's outputs..

 

post-4149-0-72188400-1435222000_thumb.jp  post-4149-0-24877900-1435222019_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

the GFS differs from yesterday's output in that it weakens the 'sceuro' high somewhat allowing thundery lows to infiltrate from the south, so if verifies, hot and dry until late next week, but increasingly humid as we lose the 'dry heat' feeling south easterly and introduce a much slacker cyclonic flow from the south which could lead to some very thundery conditions.

 

ECM is similar at the same time scales IMO with atlantic troughing eventually feeding in cooler air (although still fairly warm, but more unsettled at the end of the run)

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

There is still plenty of time for this to be all shunted East. I'm not buying it until it's at t+48.

Seen it happen so often before, even with good inter-model agreement.

 

As soon at the DE runs the heatwave headline, the models will back down!

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

There is still plenty of time for this to be all shunted East. I'm not buying it until it's at t+48.

Seen it happen so often before, even with good inter-model agreement.

 

As soon at the DE runs the heatwave headline, the models will back down!

DE ALREADY SAYING 30c next week amongst other rubbish headlines....

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Still alot of uncertainty this morning with how hot conditions could become for the UK. The ECM is most bullish, the UKMO is more progressive with the Atlantic nudging the hottest air further east.

 

The UKMO has the pattern about 150 miles further east, both however agree on the evolution whereby the low exiting the USA at T120hrs phases with the slow moving low to the west of the UK, this pushes this low further north and helps to pull up the hot air from Spain and France.

 

So it could still go either way, the UKMO still looks very warm and briefly hot in the south especially but the ECM would be much more noteworthy in terms of heat.

 

The last time the 20c 850 got into the UK was for a few hours in August 2003, this scraped the se corner so its a rare thing to happen. The ECM gets the 22c just into the south coast and widely 21's right up into northern England which would be stunning for the UK.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

No messing around from the NAVGEM this morning. While it is one of the most extreme outputs, it would definitely see the record under threat.

 

And that chart if for 8PM in the evening..

 

navgemfr-8-138.png?25-07

 

Not quite correct, it's the 6 hours up to 8pm, but still, yikes.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 06z has a high of 30c in the south for July 1st and the mid to high 20's widely in the south

 

150-778UK.GIF?25-6

 

By 8pm temperatures remain close to 30c for some in the south and the mid 20's widely

 

156-778UK.GIF?25-6

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