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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

EDIT


John are not those ECM/GFS anomalies for 00z?


they are, I always show the 00z with the 12z output fro NOAA, just a habit I've developed over the years. It rarely seems to affect the overall ideas from the 3, well in my view anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

 

EDIT

John are not those ECM/GFS anomalies for 00z?

they are, I always show the 00z with the 12z output fro NOAA, just a habit I've developed over the years. It rarely seems to affect the overall ideas from the 3, well in my view anyway.

 

 

Apologies I didn't realise that.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Latest EC32 update

 

Starting at day ten there is a weak trough Greenland running SE west of the UK, ridging mid Atlantic and weakish HP north of Scandinavia. Thus the surface analysis would incline towards LP Iceland, westerly flow and average temps.

 

During the next week up to the 2th July  the Azores ridge reasserts itself and the trough disappears although the main centre of the HP does yo yo a bit back and forth down SW way there is a mainly flat NW/W flow over the UK with temps still around average.

 

This broadly speaking remains the situation for the next week until the 9th with temps a touch below average

 

And, surprise surprise, this scenario continues until the end of the run on the 17th July with temps around average.

 

Summary

 

One feels a bit underwhelmed. After a possibility of unsettled weather 25-27th ( I know)  the rest of the period is dominated (not really the correct word) by the Azores HP to the south west bringing a NW/W flow over the UK which will remain very dry but temps only around average or a tad below. Being optimistic there is scope for some quite nice weather within this scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

No change this morning, The GFS continuing the theme of High Pressure pushing up over Greenland around the 21st. With Low Pressure sat over or very close to the UK giving a cool Northerly flow. Into week 2 shows systems sweeping down from the N/W giving cool and unsettled conditions at times towards Months end.

 

ECMWF also maintains this pattern. 

 

npsh500.pngnpsh500.pngnpsh500.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO has high pressure over the UK at first before a trough moves SE early next week and this is likely to increase the amount of showers we will have

 

Rukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 16TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the South of the UK today will be superceded by a weakening front moving slowly South across the UK later today, tonight and tomorrow.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains rather pessimistic in mood over the coming two weeks as the flow undulates across the UK in the coming days before strengthening under a UK trough next week and continuing in similar unseasonal mood in strength and positioning through Week 2 with very changeable weather likely for the UK as a result.

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the coming days maintaining a ridge towards the South with fine bright and reasonably warm conditions at times. Further North more cloud and a little rain at times seem likely from weak Atlantic troughs and with time the ridge over the South becomes tenuous enough to allow these troughs to slip further South and SE across the UK. Then next week the ridge loses influence altogether with a period of cyclonic weather with rain or showers for all later next week before a more NW/SE setup seems likely with the wetter conditions transferring towards the North and West in mild SW winds.

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is a lot better if it's a continuation of fine and dry weather your after. Although a weakening of the High pressure ridge this coming weekend and early next week is indicated with a period of slack winds promoting a few showers High pressure builds back more favourably positioned later to draw some very warm air across the UK from the South for a while with a thundery breakdown late in the period and more unsettled weather to finish the period in the North and NW.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a rridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather still in two weeks time. There are of course some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members remain in the minority at the moment.

 


 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure maintained out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK in a light NW flow for many. A few showers may develop by the weekend and even more so early next week as a slightly more enhanced trough slips SE across the UK early next week.

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure continuing to be held out to the SW of Britain with weak frontal troughs invading the airspace of the UK  weakened by the associated ridge from the High across the South of the UK.

 


 

GEM GEM remains High pressure orientated comfortably in control of the weather across the UK with just a period of slacker pressure early next week that could promote the odd shower or two for a time and the odd trough affecting the far North of the UK at times too.

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too undulates a High pressure ridge towards and away from the South of the UK over the coming days and week with a NW flow carrying weak troughs down over the North and East at times perhaps with the odd shower.

 


 

ECM ECM is quite progressive in it's demise of the High pressure ridge early next week as shallow Low pressure moves into the UK next week promoting showers and outbreaks of rain and somewhat cooler conditions. By the end of the run though High pressure building South of the UK looks like it could bring back warm and settled weather to at least the South and East of the UK towards the end of next week.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that our long lasting High pressure ridge is slowly being replaced by something of a bias towards a UK trough in slack winds looking likely in 10 days time. The methodology used to create the chart hides the patterns which make up it's view and vary quite a bit ine to another between both better and worse than what's shown.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.3 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 21.3 pts.

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models remain largely focused on the behaviour of High pressure positioned out to the SW of the UK and how much influence it holds across the UK. In the short term it does allow some weak fronts to cross South across the UK but rainfall amounts will be very restrictive and mostly towards the North. Cloud amounts will be large at times and this may hold temperatures down to comfortable levels in the North but some warm weather could be experienced in the South. Then next week there are indications with some cross model support that a period of more showery weather may develop as a more enhanced trough moves down from the North in the light flow. ECM is the most progressive of these outcomes with several days of relatively cool and unstable conditions. However, it does indicate too that High pressure may well build back after this at least across the South and East where hints that it might become very warm are shown. So in a nutshell today prospects remain reasonable and while a heatwave looks very unlikely in the near future as long as that High pressure remains out to the SW conditions look favourable enough for most people to enjoy some fine early Summer weather and although this may be punctuated with odd days of cloud and a little rain or showers no large rainfall amounts look likely across most areas of the UK for the next few weeks at least.   

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 17th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Not much to say this morning other than mildly unsettled. GFS the worst of the bunch, parking a trough over the UK for several days. 

 

Rtavn2403.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

A number of models really aren't too keen on the Greenland heights staying. The GEM seems to lose them quite quick this morning for example. No model seems to suggest particularly strong heights either - rather weak to moderate blocking at best.

Confidence good on a trough dropping south but still nothing disastrous IMO. The GFS's deep lows are probably Its usual over reaction in la la land.

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

No change from the GFS 6z from around the 21st. With very strong Heights over Greenland.

 

npsh500.pngnpsh500.pngh850t850eu.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

No change from the GFS 6z from around the 21st. With very strong Heights over Greenland.

 

npsh500.pngnpsh500.pngh850t850eu.png

yes the gfs has been rock solid in its output for heights building towards Greenland. Certainly looking likely now that we will from this weekend be entering a cooler showery theme.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A mixed run from GFS for next week some warmer days and some cooler days it doesn't look like a complete washout, but there will be plenty of showers at times and the risk of some longer spells of rain but as ever this time of year in any brighter spells it will be feeling pleasant enough

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.pngukprec.pngukprec.pngukprec.pngukprec.png

 

A blink and you'll miss it hot day in FI before it gets pushed east

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

The met office do state today that "there is considerable uncertainty regarding weather conditions from Tuesday onwards but it looks likely that most places should see some dry and fine spells". So make what you will of GFS at the moment

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Once again UKMO keeps the high over more of the UK compared to GFS on Sunday

 

UW120-21.GIF?16-18gfs-2015061612-0-114.png?12

 

The 12z GFS is better than the 06z though 12z above right

 

gfs-2015061606-0-120.png?6

 

High pressure slowly rebuilding next week much improved from some of the previous runs

 

gfs-0-168.png?12

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

The GFS 12z has the briefest of northerly outbreaks next Monday before high pressure builds back in. Temps are in the low 20s on Sunday, falling back into the teens on Monday before recovering into the low 20s again by Tuesday. And, as SS has alluded to, the UKMO isnt too shabby either, keeping most parts dry and quite pleasant over the weekend. Good stuff from the 12z models so far.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

big improvements on the models this evening!!high pressure building in more strongly from the weekend compared to earlier runs!!hopefully the improvements continue!!

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

It seems to me that this semi permanent Azores high that the models are keeping faith with, that is always to far south west.

Totally ruined the winter and now will ruin the people that like the hot and sultry summer weather, because every week two that shows this is another week towards autumn.

Let face it the countdown to autumn begins  from this weekend, lol...longest day and all that.

NO I am not saying summer is over, lol...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I've been reading models on here for more than 12 years...They're getting better, no doubt; but whining about what might (or, more likely, might not) happen at T+10,000 is futile. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

I've been reading models on here for more than 12 years...They're getting better, no doubt; but whining about what might (or, more likely, might not) happen at T+10,000 is futile. :D

Can we have permission to whine and moan at T+ 5,000 :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A typical UK Summer pattern showing in the 12z runs so far -the Azores High occasionally ridging in and low pressure running across to the north.

Weak frontal systems coming se from the shallow Icelandic lows bringing some occasional rain/showers so as usual the best weather reserved for areas further south and east where pressure is highest.

 

post-2026-0-27808300-1434475363_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-01969600-1434475383_thumb.pn

 

No heat wave on the cards yet but many areas should have plenty of useable weather around for outdoor activities in the next week or so.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

The GFS 12z has the briefest of northerly outbreaks next Monday before high pressure builds back in. Temps are in the low 20s on Sunday, falling back into the teens on Monday before recovering into the low 20s again by Tuesday. And, as SS has alluded to, the UKMO isnt too shabby either, keeping most parts dry and quite pleasant over the weekend. Good stuff from the 12z models so far.

Quite. GEM really wasnt keen on the Greenland Heights this morning. A much more normal 12z and very pleasant. Not surprised the swing may be turning back in favour of more normal conditions. 

 

My summary from 2/3 days ago of plenty of useable pleasant weather for the rest of June still stands and if anything is even stronger this evening.

 

*Awaits to be told we should ignore the 12z.* Lol.

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Quite. GEM really wasnt keen on the Greenland Heights this morning. A much more normal 12z and very pleasant. Not surprised the swing may be turning back in favour of more normal conditions. 

 

My summary from 2/3 days ago of plenty of useable pleasant weather for the rest of June still stands and if anything is even stronger this evening.

 

The GEFS mean in a weeks time not looking particularly unsettled and hinting at a pressure rise from the south. It goes on to suggest a NW/SE split for the remainder of next week with quite warm conditions for the SE.

 

gens-21-1-168.png

 

 

gens-21-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Big changes from the ECM too, cutting short the northerly (it doesnt really feature on this run at all). In its place are much more interesting summer charts. We could be about to look south for our weather for the first time in ages. Quite a way from being fully settled but theres quite a bit of warmth heading our way at t+168. But its early days and one run doesnt make a pattern change so its a trend that i will be looking for tomorrow too.

 

ECM0-168.GIF?16-0

 

ECM1-168.GIF?16-0

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening all, a messy weather pattern coming up for sure from both Ecm and Gfs . Changeable  weather for all on these charts , although as yet there really is no meat on the bones... :oops:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Some marked changes in tonight's GEFS anomalies and not for the better.

 

At T168 in now has in place the Greenland HP with a marked trough out of NE Canada and a trough Scandinavia. This tends to leave the UK in limbo between LP to the west and east and HP north and south. So.........................

 

At T216 instead of ridging to the west of the UK we now have the HP pushed south and a westerly flow between the LP and HP with rather more unsettled conditions Surely the ops didn't pick this up first? Await the ECM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I think we've been in Limbo for a while now, knocks...Last time I looked, I couldn't find any seriously low- or high-pressure areas, anywhere. It wouldn't take much to shift the balance, either way? :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Worth noting Ed that the EC 32 update does indicate a similar scenario within the time frame of the GEFS but reasserts the Azores high around T264.much in fact as tonight's GEFS does so perhaps no big surprise.

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