Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[mushymanrob]

huge uncertainty then.... but im not liking the gfs 06z nor the ecm 00z, @t240 they both have a greenland high, the beginings of a southerly tracking jet and a large atlantic low heading in straight towards us. IF this becomes reality, well, the heart of summer at least doesnt look good for settled/warm/dry weather.

[summer blizzard]

GEM0z retains the high pressure. It's weakening at day 10 but by then we have a plume. 

 

Euro this morning is semi-unsettled/slack although it looks the low is progressing towards us by day 10. 

 

GFS6z is a horrid summer run. Persistent winds from a northern quadrant from next weekend before low pressure arrives over southern England (tends to be wet)..

 

[knocker]

well as so often happens one has broken ranks this morning on the anomaly charts, this time GFS, see below, so less confidence in just what the upper air pattern will be 5-7 days from now. NOAA will be interesting to see this evening whatever it shows, just what will the upper air pattern be is an interesting question!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

I must admit I'm slightly puzzled by the the ECM mean anomaly on your link John.  It has a positive anomaly over Greenland enclosed within a 564DM contour height. Yet looking at the four individual anomaly charts at 168, 192, 216 and 240 there would seem no way they could arrive at that. What am I missing?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015061500&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=228

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

I must admit I'm slightly puzzled by the the ECM mean anomaly on your link John.  It has a positive anomaly over Greenland enclosed within a 564DM contour height. Yet looking at the four individual anomaly charts at 168, 192, 216 and 240 there would seem no way they could arrive at that. What am I missing?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015061500&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=228

 

no idea mate

I look at the 3 I use and stay clear of other charts for similar times although I do sometimes look at NAEFS. I get easily confused these days so I keep it simple. Sorry unable to answer your question but I am sure one of our younger and brighter folk will be able to.

[Costa Del Fal]

Always check the ensembles if possible before Making assumptions/comments.

And surprise surprise after about the 23rd, the ensembles show the GFS 6z op is really quite a loner with its low pressure late in the run. Almost all other members going with something much nearer normal. Yes, no solid high pressure though from his point onwards high pressure cells over 1030mb aren't common. No deeper low pressure it seems either. Just a mixed bag. Pressure about 1015 to 1020mb on average and 850hpa between 4-9c.

Other models don't really seem to go crazy on strong Greenland heights. Yes it does lol like there will be some sort of rise this weekend or early next week but nothing screaming 'heart of summer' in ruins stuff.

As I said last night I stick by the summary of plenty of useable weather ahead. No heatwave, no washout, just pleasant at times with a dollop of rain here and there. Great growing conditions I would imagine.

I am a long way from convinced the weather is about to turn 2007-12 esque, as much as some would want and perpetuate here.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[knocker]

no idea mate

I look at the 3 I use and stay clear of other charts for similar times although I do sometimes look at NAEFS. I get easily confused these days so I keep it simple. Sorry unable to answer your question but I am sure one of our younger and brighter folk will be able to.

 

I should have said it was the ECM charts I was referring too. How that ECM mean is arrived at from the relevant ECM charts. Not to worry there is enough confusion as it is and my little brain can't cope.

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker

[Frank Trough]

huge uncertainty then.... but im not liking the gfs 06z nor the ecm 00z, @t240 they both have a greenland high, the beginings of a southerly tracking jet and a large atlantic low heading in straight towards us. IF this becomes reality, well, the heart of summer at least doesnt look good for settled/warm/dry weather.

Recm2402.gif Rtavn2402.gif

 

When I looked at the ECM this morning I must admit my heart sank a little bit. From a personal preference viewpoint (and I understand some people love below average, wet, windy weather in summer) I would not want to see that t240 chart verify. I was hoping that it might just be the ECM overdoing the height rises as it often seems to on the operational. Then the GFS 06z came along and pretty much backed it....

 

at least the 06z is a genuine outlier later in the run for the south:

 

 

I should caveat this by saying I have next week booked off on leave (always a jinx) and I have a long standing all day fishing pass from the Mrs for Friday 26th which is naturally going to be influenced heavily by sod's law. So on that basis the 06z is probably spot on and leading the way!

[Nouska]

I should have said it was the ECM charts I was referring too. How that ECM mean is arrived at from the relevant ECM charts.

 

Is it anything to do with the climatology used on different sites? The positive anomalies look stronger on the Meteociel view of the charts.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

[knocker]

Is it anything to do with the climatology used on different sites? The positive anomalies look stronger on the Meteociel view of the charts.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

Could be Nouska but that wouldn't effect the 500mb contour chart and meaning thereof.

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

I am a long way from convinced the weather is about to turn 2007-12 esque, as much as some would want and perpetuate here.

From my pov, that is a fear, not something i want or would like to see happen. Im far from convinced this summer will go down that path BUT it has become slightly more possible over the past few days. So cannot be ignored.

Of course my doom laden post earlier was only a reference to two similar fi charts, which naturally may well never verify.

[Stormyking]

In the meantime however, the GFS rolling out and its still looking rather nice and pleasant for the majority of this week, especially for much of the South, as does the ECM, before it all changes.

 

Some really pleasant Temperatures: 22-23'c for quite a lot and this is the same into Thursday and Friday!

[Summer Sun]

Again we have some big differences between GFS and UKMO on Sunday

 

GFS has low pressure with showers or longer spells of rain just about anywhere

 

 

UKMO however has high pressure over the UK with the low much further east

 

 

Best consult the crystal ball

 

Edited June 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

I must admit I'm slightly puzzled by the the ECM mean anomaly on your link John.  It has a positive anomaly over Greenland enclosed within a 564DM contour height. Yet looking at the four individual anomaly charts at 168, 192, 216 and 240 there would seem no way they could arrive at that. What am I missing?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015061500&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=228

 

Those two charts that John uses are based on the operational runs from the GFS and ECM and not the ensembles,hence the marked heights over Greenland on the ECM chart.

[knocker]

Those two charts that John uses are based on the operational runs from the GFS and ECM and not the ensembles,hence the marked heights over Greenland on the ECM chart.

 

Ah right, thanks for that. I admit I was wondering about that but then I thought that would be a bit odd. In fact I still find it a bit odd but it does explain something else.

 

The senior moments are coming thick and fast.

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

GFS once again shows Heights push up into Greenland around the 21st, With Low Pressure sat over the UK drawing a cool Northerly flow.

 

[terrier]

Well the gfs is like a dog with a bone again and doesn't want to let go of the height rises into Greenland somewhere around the 20th. So towards this weekend it's looking cold and showery for many

[Cloud 10]

Ah right, thanks for that. I admit I was wondering about that but then I thought that would be a bit odd. In fact I still find it a bit odd but it does explain something else.

 

The senior moments are coming thick and fast.

 

The amount of charts and information available these days is mind boggling.

[Summer Sun]

GFS once again shows Heights push up into Greenland around the 21st, With Low Pressure sat over the UK drawing a cool Northerly flow.

 

 

Only a matter of time till one of the models changes as UKMO still doesn't agree with GFS......

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS ens can be split into 3 clusters to be honest, the first is something akin to the GFS operational with varying degrees of coolness and rainfall, the second main cluster is a UK based high by day 7 which would be the route the UKMO takes, the third which is a minor cluster is a cut off low over southern England/France with the Azores/Russian ridges linking up.

Example ensemble members

 

To be honest the models at around day 5 look a mess with attempts to cut off multiple low pressure centres as well as warm air advection into the upper latitudes over our side of the pole.

[knocker]

The GEFS average 6-10 and 11-15 MSLP anomalies this evening.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Only a matter of time till one of the models changes as UKMO still doesn't agree with GFS......

 

 Nor the ECMWF, As this also maintains Heights pushing up into Greenland from the 21st giving a cool Northerly flow. I'm only looking at the broad pattern..

 

Edited June 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening. ! A lot of fine weather to be had for southern Britain, this week but the general trend from both models is for generally unsettled conditions to encroach on all from the gfs and ecm  by the weekend ,

[bluearmy]

Ukmo looks a tad isolated this evening. strong feeling that gfs/gem have a better handle on the current overall pattern than the euros.

[johnholmes]

Well everyone has their preference for 'average' charts to put the matter as simply if not totally correctly for anyone a bit confused by the plthora of charts, synoptic a, ensembles and mean charts.

As a simple soul I will stick with my usual anomaly outputs as they have served me quite well over the past 5 years or so. Gawd knows how many Mb I have stored on my pc from checking 2x daily 365 days a year!

Anyway looking at the 3 outputs I use the NOAA version seems the most likely to me. It has more consistency in itts recent output at 6-10 days than either of the other two. It also looks more meterologically realistic to me.

That is a shift in +ve heights at 500mb from the UK/near continent area to a more northerly position, most likely NW of the UK. So from about 5 ays out we will be having air from a cooler zone than currently or expected in the short term.

Below are the usual charts I use, ECMWF-GFS first and NOAA below that

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The NOAA 8-14 also suggests that a similar upper air pattern is likely further out, W'ly at 500mb from the vicinity of the Gt Lakes or further west from not far from the Vancouver area?

[knocker]

Tonight's day ten anomalies don't much clarify things. Now there's a surprise.

 

The GEFS has ridging to the west orientated SW/NE thus leaving the UK under the influence of surface Azores ridging.

 

The ECM on the other hand has the HP a tad further west and orientated more N/S and a weak trough over the UK. Thus surface wise a region of slack low pressure over the UK with the ridge pushed further SW.

 

One can't help feeling the solution is still up for grabs but one suspects the end result will not be too bad vis the rest of June.

 

EDIT

John are not those ECM/GFS anomalies for 00z?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker