Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[phil nw.]

Some real warmth to the sun today,lovely blue skies around these parts so very pleasant feeling with a nice little breeze .

A breakdown coming tomorrow and over the weekend with some thundery activity followed by much cooler air for a while as a shallow low moves in from the south.

Looks pretty good again into next week though as an Atlantic high builds in across the UK which looks like staying around for a while.

 

no heat wave but very pleasant Summer weather for many of us with temperatures into the low 20Cs in the south later.

 

 

[cheese]

Big question marks over how far north the rain will get on Saturday the beeb last night had it stalling over northern England but GFS this morning has it stalling much further south

 

Funny you should mention this SS - the WRF-NMM model also shows it stalling much further south, and thus has highs of 19-20C for up here on Saturday as opposed to the 12C washout the BBC/Met Office currently have. The same model shows highs of 12-13C for much of the Midlands and East Anglia instead. Will be interesting to see who is right.

Edited June 11, 2015 by cheese

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

The NAO has killed off all sign of northern blocking and the positive readings support the generally settled theme after this weekend with mid-Atlantic pressure higher than the norm suggesting ridging from the Azores HP close to or just west of the British Isles. Little or no sign of any significant LP to the North-West either but nor is there any sign of the HP migrating and heights lowering to the south-west which would suggest a warm or hot clow from the S or SE.

 

This might be the signal as at the furthest end of FI the index slips back to neutrality or possibly below but that's an eternity away and there looks a strong signal from early next week for an extended period of benign conditions - no strong heatwave or humidity mercifully - with reasonable temperatures. Cloud amounts are always difficult to forecast as we know and an onshore flow into the far SE might make for cloudier mornings before it burns back.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows high pressure developing over the UK on Sunday and persisting early next week, initially rather cool but becoming warmer by Tuesday and rather warm in the southeast midweek but turning unsettled and windier across the far northwest of the uk, it's not completely dry next week in other areas but rainfall amounts look small. Our high drifts west into the Atlantic for a time later next week but then slowly transfers east again. Overall, the next few weeks show a lot of fine weather on this run, especially further south.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

European desperation to see summer arrive reflected in meteociel having 8500 viewers for the 12z ecm op!!

[knocker]

forecastguy â€@forecastguy Jun 10

Strongest ever June MJO Phase 2 values

 

[Summer Sun]

forecastguy â€@forecastguy Jun 10

Strongest ever June MJO Phase 2 values

 

What does this mean for us?

[knocker]

What does this mean for us?

 

Much as has been forecast with HP to the SW dominant but I'm open to correction.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is very similar to the Gfs 12z with pressure rising from sunday, becoming drier and brighter from the northwest with the residual rain across the southeast gradually clearing during Sunday and then early next week shows strengthening high pressure in control and becoming warmer, especially midweek across southern UK but then a low pushes east to the north of the UK with lowering heights to the north east and our high is forced westwards into the Atlantic for a few days with cooler air sweeping southeastwards next Thursday with a risk of a few showers, gradually the high out west starts to drift closer to the UK again and the weather becomes more settled and pleasantly warm just like the Gfs run in low res.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hiyer folks. After this weekends unsettled conditions for southern Britain, next week begins fine but high pressure retreats deep into the Atlantic by mid week allowing some fronts to move southeast across  the nation along again with rather chilly winds and changeable weather . The 500mb charts does not seem to alter after this time frame for a fair time.

[Eugene]

Hiyer folks. After this weekends unsettled conditions for southern Britain, next week begins fine but high pressure retreats deep into the Atlantic by mid week allowing some fronts to move southeast across  the nation along again with rather chilly winds and changeable weather . The 500mb charts does not seem to alter after this time frame for a fair time.

 

 

Not really changeable with HP so close, the fronts mid next week look more nuisance value to me and dying out by the time they reach the SE.

[William of Walworth]

Very sceptical about the wording ANYWEATHER uses to summarise that, I have to say.

 

Possibilty there of a little bit of over-eagerness to ramp a downgrade of High Pressure influence?

 

Eugene looks like he's being a tad more sensible here!

Edited June 12, 2015 by William of Walworth

[knocker]

A quick summary of the latest EC32 update.

 

From the beginning of next week until the 13th July HP centred to the SW ridging over the UK to positive heights Scandinavia with a possibility of a breakdown at the end of the run from the NW.

 

So fine and dry with temps around average but higher around the last week of June when it could become quite warm. Enjoy.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 12TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough of Low pressure is moving up into southern Britain today before stalling and weakening over Central areas tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly warm weather should return next week, especially in the South and West.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow much weaker than of late with the flow generally to the NW of the UK. Through the run today the flow remains quite weak and difficult to pin down in terms of positioning and orientation

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today continues to show High pressure largely in control of the UK weather, positioned close to or over the UK in the coming weeks. While not necessarily over hot from it's positioning this morning plenty of fine and dry weather is likely for all with the sunniest and warmest conditions developing across the South and West while the North and East may see more in the way of cloud and slightly lower temperatures at times especially for a time later next week and more generally right at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is largely quite similar to the operational with the SW as best for temperatures and fine weather as High pressure lies close to the SW or west for much of the time. The run also shows the same more changeable weather as the operational shown right at the end of the period for a time

.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show fine weather well in control of the weather largely from a ridge lying to the SW or by some members over the UK.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today is slightly less encouraging than yesterday in that it takes the warmer and High pressure based air developing early next week away to the South later as a strengthening WNW flow drags troughs in cooler air with occasional rain down across many parts of the UK soon after midweek.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data well with the removal of the complex thundery trough structure on Sunday as High pressure builds across the UK and then troughs queue up out to the NW by the middle of the week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM looks much like UKMO this morning in it's first 6 day period with a push of cooler Atlantic driven air spoiling the improvements of early next week with cloud and some rain later in the week. It is just a temporary spoiler though as High pressure rebuilds across the UK by the end of the run with fine and in places warm weather returning next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure early next week with some sunshine and warm temperatures. However, it too later in the week shows winds veering to a cooler Northerly though away from the far North and East a lot of dry and sometimes bright weather may ensue.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

.

ECM ECM looks more encouraging than some of the rest through the middle section of next week as High pressure remains closer in towards western Britain restricting any influence of cooler Atlantic Westerly or NW'ly winds to the far north and East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains encouraging as a ridge from the Azores anticyclone remains led across the UK from the SW on Day 10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend of the models today have introduced more of a hiatus in the High pressure based outlook towards the middle and end to next week as West or NW winds bring cooler and cloudier conditions South and East across the UK not previously shown as extensive.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.8 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.9 pts and GFS at 81.9 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 42.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.8 pts to 21.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS While I remain optimistic about the overall pattern of the weather across the UK over the coming weeks as usual some caveats have developed in the last 24 hours which may limit the improvements I predicted yesterday at least for a time, The thundery trough of the weekend is still predicted to be out of the way by Monday with some dry and bright conditions developing for several days with warming days but chilly nights again for a time. By midweek winds will blow from the West across the UK and an incursion of a trough up to the NW looks like it could bring a cloudier and damper phase to the North and generally weaken good conditions in the South too. It does look a short lived down turn though as High pressure is then shown by most models to regain control across the UK with fine and warm conditions developing for all by and over next weekend and into week 2. The main difference between yesterdays and todays output is an underlying problem we have had for ages now in that we cannot seem to get High pressure in exactly the right place with the centre always wanting to position just to the West and SW rather than over the UK. These small synoptical differences can and do have radical surface differences in conditions across the British Isles which on this occasion look like reserving the very best of conditions across the South and West of the UK. Nevertheless there remains a lot of reason for optimism and all areas should enjoy some fine and warm conditions still across the next few weeks though we may be chasing areas of cloud in a West or NW breeze at times across the North and East.

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 13th 2015

Edited June 12, 2015 by Gibby

[summer blizzard]

Euro is another lovely settled run out to day 10 as is the GFS largely. GFS does breakdown at day 13.

 

UKMO unusually aggressive with the low at day 6..

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking through the models this morning ECM is most encouraging one for mid week, but we've had this before from ECM of late then it moves towards the others

 

 

UKMO not quite as good

 

 

The beebs latest week ahead has the high moving west around mid week with winds coming down from the northwest before the Azores high moves over the UK at the end of the week allowing temperatures to rise again

[knocker]

Lands End to John O'Groats - A temperature profile

Chart weatherbell

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure dominates the 00z GFS ens from Monday the risk of a blip mid week in the north but the high quickly rebuilds and temps respond nicely

 

Edited June 12, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GFS and UKMO keeping a similar picture from this morning high pressure re-builds from Monday a blip looks likely on Wednesday in the north, then during Thursday and towards the weekend the Azores high builds in with temperatures rising nicely once the high cuts off the northwesterly flow

 

 

GFS

 

Edited June 12, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

if im reading this right, the upper high shifts from the southwest up to our northeast, giving us a warm northeasterly feed? i do remember sometime in the mid 80's a northeasterly, beautiful clear blue sky, cooling breeze and 28c. maybe this would repeat that?

[Methuselah]

if im reading this right, the upper high shifts from the southwest up to our northeast, giving us a warm northeasterly feed? i do remember sometime in the mid 80's a northeasterly, beautiful clear blue sky, cooling breeze and 28c. maybe this would repeat that?

00gfs700_maps.d11.2.gif

I'm not sure exactly how to read that either, Mushy. How does one convert anomalies into synoptic charts? But it does look promising...I think!

[049balt]

25 degrees likely in Ireland in week two.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

[Summer Sun]

25 degrees likely in Ireland in week two.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

 

Looking at that the average is around 20c for week 2 that's not to say of course 25c couldn't be reached if conditions were right

[049balt]

 

Looking at that the average is around 20c for week 2 that's not to say of course 25c couldn't be reached if conditions were right

 

Anytime we get yellow here we have crossed 25c during daytime.

[bryan629]

if im reading this right, the upper high shifts from the southwest up to our northeast, giving us a warm northeasterly feed? i do remember sometime in the mid 80's a northeasterly, beautiful clear blue sky, cooling breeze and 28c. maybe this would repeat that?

00gfs700_maps.d11.2.gif

Hi Mushy, are you sure you meant to say Northeasterly and not east/southeasterly. ?

 

True , a hard to grasp anomoly chart , had a little dabble with a paint job trying to work out the jet flow..

 

 

A bit all over the place i`m afraid, but it would be nice to see the upper trough around Greenland dragged down towards Biscay. I am a lot confuzzled as to the seemingly blank area sub tropical Atlantic where the Azores high should be, cant see it being replaced by low pressure at this time of year.

Edited June 12, 2015 by bryan629