Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Summer Sun]

GEM shows things settling down next week and gradually turning much warmer than of late

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

This is as cold as it gets now on the GEFS mean at the weekend.

 

[Polar Maritime]

The slack Northerly has now turned into a draft..

 

 

But some improvements are now showing for more settled/warmer weather into the run. With Scotland taking the brunt of any cooler/unsettled spells as Low's pass just the North of the UK.

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Woollymummy]

I keep running this model through at high speed, like a nice summer bed-time story. Even if it is not going to come true, it looks fine!

[Summer Sun]

ECM follows GFS and GEM in building pressure for next week infact ECM builds it during Sunday day 10 ends with a light northerly breeze, but but at 10 days away, any chart should be taken with caution in the closer time frame GFS, ECM and GEM show an improving picture again after a blip later this week

 

 

I remain cautious for now, despite fairly good agreement as its not in a reliable timeframe if it's still showing by Thursday then that's different

[stodge]

Evening all

 

Plenty of encouragement from the teleconnections now for a more settled spell:

 

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

The concensus is now for the NAO to remain broadly neutral into mid month and beyond. What this means in my view is no huge pressure anomaly so a slack area of pressure such as a long ridge from the Azores HP. No significant LP to the North-West to make the NAO more positive or to the south-west to make it more negative so a long ridge with light winds and the centre of the HP well out to the west or south-west.

 

As always, the odd member goes off on a tangent in FI but the scatter of the past few days seems to have been resolved with a move away from northern blocking.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks great for next week, becoming dry and warm with a good deal of sunshine, nice charts these.

[Frosty.]

In the short term, the Ecm 12z shows increasingly warm and humid conditions spreading up from the continent during the second half of this week associated with a thundery low which is likely to produce torrential downpours in places, the weekend also looks warm and humid in the south with sunshine and thundery showers before high pressure takes over for next week.

[Alex]

Evening all

 

Plenty of encouragement from the teleconnections now for a more settled spell:

 

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

The concensus is now for the NAO to remain broadly neutral into mid month and beyond. What this means in my view is no huge pressure anomaly so a slack area of pressure such as a long ridge from the Azores HP. No significant LP to the North-West to make the NAO more positive or to the south-west to make it more negative so a long ridge with light winds and the centre of the HP well out to the west or south-west.

 

As always, the odd member goes off on a tangent in FI but the scatter of the past few days seems to have been resolved with a move away from northern blocking.

Forget the NAO, it is merely a signal for the pressure difference in the North Atlantic and therefore has no bearing on the weather here.

I would be looking at other teleconnections for ideas of developing trends like the MJO and AAM.

Hope that helps.

[bluearmy]

So the plume that was going to clip the se corner of the UK with its associated heavy rainfall (go back a couple days) is now progged to move up across the South west of England by the current ECM op. Think there are a few more twists and turns on this and, given we often see the rainfall never make it as far north as the models initially suggest, I wouldn't be giving any advice on where and how much re rainfall as we head through Thursday/Friday/Saturday.

Tbh, the modelling continues to lack consistency and whilst next week looks decent at the moment, again, the chances of an Atlantic system with its associated upper trough finding its way near to us is still an option.

uncertainty reigns.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This chart is remarkable in its own right...no explanation needed really. I've seen warmer overnight projected temperatures in winter cold spells....seriously

 

 

We're only 8 days into summer but it seems like I've been reading about impending warm/very warm weather for weeks. Anyone get the impression that this is the summer version of those winter teasers where easterlys eventually downgrade into westerlys as the day approaches?

Edited June 8, 2015 by CreweCold

[cheese]

This chart is remarkable in its own right...no explanation needed really. I've seen warmer overnight projected temperatures in winter cold spells....seriously

 

ukmintemp.png

 

We're only 8 days into summer but it seems like I've been reading about impending warm/very warm weather for weeks. Anyone get the impression that this is the summer version of those winter teasers where easterlys eventually downgrade into westerlys as the day approaches?

Conversely, the actual outcome will likely differ to that chart - and probably won't be quite as cold as currently shown. We can just about manage lows of 3C in early June and late August but not much else. Certainly don't expect lows of 1/2C here.

Edited June 8, 2015 by cheese

[Costa Del Fal]

This chart is remarkable in its own right...no explanation needed really. I've seen warmer overnight projected temperatures in winter cold spells....seriously

 

ukmintemp.png

 

We're only 8 days into summer but it seems like I've been reading about impending warm/very warm weather for weeks. Anyone get the impression that this is the summer version of those winter teasers where easterlys eventually downgrade into westerlys as the day approaches?

I can't remember the last time the 'minimum' charts were accurate. The max temp ones always seem closer.

[Captain Shortwave]

This chart is remarkable in its own right...no explanation needed really. I've seen warmer overnight projected temperatures in winter cold spells....seriously

 

ukmintemp.png

 

We're only 8 days into summer but it seems like I've been reading about impending warm/very warm weather for weeks. Anyone get the impression that this is the summer version of those winter teasers where easterlys eventually downgrade into westerlys as the day approaches?

Meanwhile away from charts 8 days away

Temperatures for 2, 3 days away

 

20C+ should be possible in many places from midweek with temperatures possibly hitting 80F in the south of Friday which is certainly in the very warm category, especially so given the rising humidity levels so it could feel quite oppressive at times.

 

Conditions for some thundery weather to develop Friday still looks pretty good off all the output this morning, beyond that who knows.

[knocker]

EC32 update

 

By Wednesday weak troughing Iceland but the main point increasing influence from the Azores HP plus increasing heights Scandinavia. Dry and temps average.

 

Moving on a week to the 24th no significant change but temps now above average and hey ho, more so in the north of the UK.

 

Moving on another week to the 2nd July. Possibility of just a reminder of toughing to the NW but the HP to the SW still in control so dry with average temps.

 

Finally by the 10th July no significant change. Dry temps around the average.

 

Summary

 

The main feature for the whole of the run is the Azores HP to the south west. The centre of this does jockey around a bit and there is the odd occasion when a weak trough may effect Scotland and the north of England but in general it stays influential over the UK giving dry weather with temps around average or a tad above. Of course as always there will be regional variations

 

So no heatwaves but, more to the point, no sign of wet and windy so I'll take this any day of the week. Everything looks hunky dory.

Edited June 9, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

This chart is remarkable in its own right...no explanation needed really. I've seen warmer overnight projected temperatures in winter cold spells....seriously

 

ukmintemp.png

 

We're only 8 days into summer but it seems like I've been reading about impending warm/very warm weather for weeks. Anyone get the impression that this is the summer version of those winter teasers where easterlys eventually downgrade into westerlys as the day approaches?

 

yes its been an unusual spell of cool overnight temps, but its been pretty good, no humidity issues (so no probs sleeping), no overnight mollusc issues to prized plants, and lovely fresh air by day, strong sunshine making the days very pleasant and warm.

and theres more to come after a (welcome) wet spell fri-sun. the azores high expected to build in towards the uk, imho its only a question of time before we get something hot. but for now the sunny afternoons are smashing!

[coldcomfort]

This chart is remarkable in its own right...no explanation needed really. I've seen warmer overnight projected temperatures in winter cold spells....seriously

 

ukmintemp.png

 

We're only 8 days into summer but it seems like I've been reading about impending warm/very warm weather for weeks. Anyone get the impression that this is the summer version of those winter teasers where easterlys eventually downgrade into westerlys as the day approaches?

Indeed CC, the min was -1.5c in Katesbridge NI last night, so these are indeed very impressive overnight low mins, especially in view of the fact it's only dark for 6 or 7 hours.  Looking at the 10 day temp anom chart this morning I was expecting to see us back in positive territory, but no, yet again we are looking at means of 0-2c below average for what is now the 9th day in a row.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

 

Yes the sunshine is smashing and I'd take it every day over wind and rain, but there is no getting away from the fact most of us haven't seen any genuine warmth so far this summer, let alone any heat...in fact it still feels chilly in the shade even during mid afternoon.  

 

A selection of last night's minima, courtesy of Weatheronline....

Stations: 200 Temp. Katesbridge (91 m) -2.0 °C Humberside (31 m) 0.0 °C Belfast Intl. Airport (68 m) 0.0 °C Aonach Mòr (1130 m) 1.0 °C Shap (249 m) 1.0 °C Bala (163 m) 1.0 °C Dalwhinnie (351 m) 2.0 °C Rostherne (35 m) 2.0 °C Castlederg (50 m) 2.0 °C Warcop Range (227 m) 2.0 °C RAF Dishforth (33 m) 3.0 °C Capel Curig (215 m) 3.0 °C Trawscoed (62 m) 3.0 °C Bealach na Bà (773 m) 3.0 °C Rochdale (110 m) 3.0 °C Machrihanish (10 m) 3.0 °C Glasgow Airport (8 m) 3.0 °C Strathallan (35 m) 3.0 °C Leeming (32 m) 3.0 °C Edinburgh Airport (41 m) 3.0 °C Magilligan (6 m) 3.0 °C Sutton Bonington (48 m) 3.0 °C Thorncliffe (298 m) 3.0 °C Great Dun Fell (847 m) 3.0 °C Thomastown (72 m) 3.0 °C Tulloch Bridge (236 m) 3.0 °C Shobdon (99 m) 3.0 °C Benson (57 m) 3.0 °C Linton-On-Ouse (14 m) 3.0 °C Santon Downham (6 m) 3.0 °C Church Lawford (106 m) 3.0 °C Pershore (31 m) 3.0 °C Bingley (267 m) 3.0 °C Islay/Port Ellen (17 m) 3.0 °C Edited June 9, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 9TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK with a weak trough of Low pressure affecting the far North today and a NE flow developing over the South tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more showery conditions develop late in the week and next weekend before probably more settled conditions return again.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm of the flow well North of the UK currently. It weakens and breaks up over the coming week with a new arm developing over Southern Spain and North Africa moving NE. Meanwhile the ill defined nortehrn arm lying further North under a UK trough moves North again later to blow stronger in a NE direction well to the NW of the UK by the end of the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a run of two halves with Week 1 taking us up to the middle of next week showing thundery showers likely almost anywhere eventually with some warm and humid air across the South as shallow Low pressure moves North from Europe later this week. Then from the middle of next week to the end of the run a largely dry, fine and very warm period looks likely over the South at least as High pressure builds across the South of the UK for much of the time with an Atlantic SW feed across the North perhaps delivering occasional rain at times there.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is not too different to the operational run today with a shift of emhasis away from thundery showers later next week especially across the South as High pressure builds across from the SW or West restricting any remaining unsettledness to Northernmost parts under a Westerly breeze.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows thundery conditions at he end of the week and beginning to the weekend as thundery Low pressure edges up into the Uk from Europe. It then shows signs of moving away to the East very early next week as a High pressure ridge from the Atlantic slips slowly SE across the UK from the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK is invaded from the South by thundery troughs of Low pressure and then remains the breeding ground for plenty of showers over the weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows unsettled and showery Low pressure becoming established later this week and over the weekend with the South seeing the worst of these before a North/South divide develops later in the run with High pressure building close to the South with a more changeable westerly flow likely across the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks much like UKMO this morning building High pressure back across the UK from the NW early next week following showery Low pressure late in this week and the weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a strong ridge from the Azores High lying across the Uk with fine and warm weather likely as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted towards Low pressure at the weekend moving slowly away to the East next week in the wake of more High pressure especially across the South.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.0 pts and GFS at 81.3 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.3 over 41.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.1 pts to 21.1 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be maintaining their general theme of a period of thundery weather later this week and the weekend lasting into the start of next week in the East and South before a pressure build from the West or SW takes control. While the humid, thundery period could be followed by a short cooler period early next week as the thundery Low exits East it looks like it will be warming up especially in the South as the winds move in from a warm West or SW source later. In the North there may be sufficient influence from troughs to the North to bring cloud and a little rain though even here some fair and warm weather is possible. There looks every reason to be optimistic once we get through the upcoming period of thundery weather over the next 5-7 days. It looks likely that the South will eventually see the highest temperatures so far this summer if the High pressure builds across the South as shown and with some high humidity levels it could feel a little muggy at times. The far North may see more cloud and perhaps a little rain under a fresher Westerly but even here in the shelter of the mountains some warm and humid conditions could develop at times. I would say the models are slowly shaping up into a more traditional Summer setup next week with a traditional North/South divide between best in the South and not quite so good in the North with the nationally cool nights than we seem to have experienced for an age finally and hopefully departing our shores for a few months from later next week.

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 10th 2015

[William of Walworth]

EC32 update

 

By Wednesday weak troughing Iceland but the main point increasing influence from the Azores HP plus increasing heights Scandinavia. Dry and temps average.

 

Moving on a week to the 24th no significant change but temps now above average and hey ho, more so in the north of the UK.

 

Moving on another week to the 2nd July. Possibility of just a reminder of toughing to the NW but the HP to the SW still in control so dry with average temps.

 

Finally by the 10th July no significant change. Dry temps around the average.

 

Summary

 

The main feature for the whole of the run is the Azores HP to the south west. The centre of this does jockey around a bit and there is the odd occasion when a weak trough may effect Scotland and the north of England but in general it stays influential over the UK giving dry weather with temps around average or a tad above. Of course as always there will be regional variations

 

So no heatwaves but, more to the point, no sign of wet and windy so I'll take this any day of the week. Everything looks hunky dory.

Bank!

 

Current synoptics looking pretty positive overall for summer lovers. Lets hope the updates over coming days sustain the High Pressure influence we seem likely to be in for. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

As an example at 192 hours, which is admittedly of a Fantasy Island territory, many of the operational models do go for a build of pressure towards the UK/Southern UK from the West/South West:

As an exception, have had to use the 180 hour version from the NAVGEM as it doesn't go out any further, but still illustrates the same point of the Azores High building over the UK. There are some differences as you would expect - the 00Z ECMWF, in particular, looks really brill for building the Azores ridge over the UK.

While it is at 144 hours, the UKMO looks as though it would head in a similar way:

Also some support from the top-secret 500mb anomaly chart (the 8 to 14 day version) from the NOAA that pressure could start building in towards the British Isles from the South-West of the UK - those higher than average heights to our West seem to keep edging closer to the UK on every update of the anomaly chart. Those perhaps would be a little on the cool side with the flow at the 500mb height being between the West and North-West.

While a more settled spell does look possible again for next week (after this weekend's possible unsettled and thundery blip) how far North and East the Azores ridge builds and how long it could last is probably still not terribly certain. And will have an effect on how warm and how widespread any bright, sunny conditions could be. But nice to see things generally heading in the right direction for those who like that sort of weather (and hopefully one of those instances where the UK/Southern UK pressure build doesn't get watered down).

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows warmer and more humid weather spreading up from the near continent across England and Wales, becoming very warm in the far south on Thursday and quite widely across the south and southeast on Friday with 26-27c for the SE. Thundery weather with torrential downpours push north during Friday but with sunny spells too.

What really caught my eye on this run is the mid to late June period which shows high pressure building in close to the south through next week and then a major change to very warm / hot anticyclonic conditions for the whole country, a north / south split for most of next week with the south having a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather the north of the UK staying unsettled for a while longer but looking further ahead, these charts would really put the Flaming into June.

Edited June 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning is showing weak troughs next week push in from the N/W, Bringing bands of rain/cloud for mostly the Northern half of the UK but not exclusively, As the far South looks to hold on to more settled weather with temps around avg/Sometimes above avg, But cooler further North with a risks of frosts at night. Further into the run into week 2, And again this morning there are promising signals for much more settled/warmer weather to push up from the South for around the Summer Solstice.

 

Edited June 9, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows pressure slowly building in during Monday

 

 

ECM is pretty similar to UKMO

 

 

Following on from the chart Crew posted last night GFS still has subzero temps to start next Tuesday in parts of Northern Scotland and North Wales

 

This is the MAX temps of just 4c in some of the towns and cities less than a week before midsummers day is remarkable

 

[knocker]

It is indeed remarkable

 

 

[coldcomfort]

It is indeed remarkable

Very much so....as others have said on several occasions even maxima like those would feel OK out of the breeze and in the strong June sunshine, but under slate grey skies, in the breeze and worst still with rain falling it would feel like Nov....actually I put Oct at first, that was until I remembered recording 20.3c last Oct 31st!!! 

Edited June 9, 2015 by coldcomfort