Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[SE Blizzards]

GFS 18z starting to look more like the GEM at Day 7/8 with that pocket of -4 upper air affecting parts of scotland

 

 

Also a widespread ground frost for Northern Britain next weekend, and the odd pocket of air frost to boot..

 

 

 

Unbelievable.

Edited June 7, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[knocker]

The weekly forecast on farming today this morning had thundery rain moving into the far south on Thursday from the low Biscay/France and spreading north on Friday. But it stressed there is still uncertainties about this.

 

The GFS take on this

Charts weathbell

 

[Man With Beard]

I would have thought someone with your expertise could make a pretty good stab at the surface analysis from that upper air pattern assuming it correct. And I don't mean the fine detail such as a heavy shower at Tunbridge Wells at 1530!!

I think a surface analysis is still tricky based on the charts you post for the end of the week. Unsettled for sure, but there could easily be a localised dry area between thundery rain to the south and a more Atlantic style frontal incursion to the north. If that were to happen, say over northern England, it would not appear to be unsettled for them. But we're talking possibilities here.

To avoid your expertise going to waste, maybe you could give a slightly more detailed analysis too? Even it's just "Wet south, showery north"? Not for my sake, but for those who just want to know what the weather might be without having to learn about anomalies? (thanks for doing this in your most recent post)

Edited June 8, 2015 by rjbw

[coldcomfort]

For the 8th consecutive day the 10 day anomaly charts go for below average MEAN temperatures across the whole UK, but the 2nd half of the period does look set to be somewhat warmer than the first, probably as a result of less cold nights rather than any proper dating warmth though.

[knocker]

The latest fax charts highlight the uncertainty for the end of the week

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 8TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will lie across the UK with a weak trough of Low pressure affecting the far North tomorrow and an increasing NE flow across Southern England tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Quite settled for a time with sunny spells and warm conditions by day locally before more showery conditions develop late in the week and next weekend before probably more settled conditions return again.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast looks a little confusing this morning as it oscillates North and South across the UK in a broken fashion over the coming couple of weeks.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks quite High pressure based with an interruption in this towards the end of the week and over the weekend as a thundery Low edges up from the South and then slowly away East over Europe with a build of pressure behind leading to another fine and warm spell for many next week

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational today with a brief spell of showery weather at the end of the week and the weekend leading into a largely fine weather based second week as a large High develops over the UK.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show quite a promising outlook this morning as High pressure looks like playing a major part in the UK weather two weeks from now with a centre over or to the West of the UK and just a 10% group suggesting anything meaningfully unsettled.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO too shows a thundery Low moving slowly North into Southern Britain at the end of the week and the weekend before signs of it moving away to the East by the start of next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts indicate falling pressure later in the week as a thundery Low draws warm and humid air up into Southern Britain towards the end of the week and the weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows showery weather from the end of the week lasting rather longer than some of the other output as a second incursion of Low pressure from the North delays the rise of pressure until later next week on this run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pressure rising from the SW after a showery period at the end of the week and start to the weekend as a thundery Low pressure edges away towards the East at the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM shows showery conditions too developing especially across the South later in the week as thundery Low pressure dges up from the South. A brief improvement is then shown across the North for a time early next week as higher pressure develops before more showery Low pressure moves down across the UK late in the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge from the SW towards Southern Britain maintaining a lot of fine and bright weather with any rain restricted to weak fronts close to the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted towards Low pressure at the weekend moving slowly away to the East next week in the wake of more High pressure.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS and UKMO with 85.6 over GFS's's 81.4 pts respectively. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 41.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.8 pts to 22.3 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Finally the models seem to be firming up on expected conditions from the weekend as the thundery Low moving up into Southern Britain at the end of the week and weekend seems to have reasonable cross model support to move away to the East by early next week as pressure builds strongly again from the SW. So the fine and bright weather looks like being replaced by thundery showers towards the end of the week especially in the South and this may extend to other areas for a time. However, of much more note this morning is the trend shown for High pressure to develop across the UK bringing fine and warm weather to many areas, at least to the Southern two thirds of the UK with any affects of weak troughs of Low pressure just affecting the far North of the UK. There are still a few exceptions to this general rule of thumb who want to keep unsettled conditions a little longer notably and worryingly the ECM operational but on the whole the models look better this morning longer term with less emphasis on coolness shown than of late as many runs indicate less of a Northerly influence. So all in all ECM aside a lot of dry and fine weather over the next few weeks with a sandwich of three or four days commencing late Thursday of more showery and potentially thundery weather before the fine weather returns for many next week.

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 9th 2015

[Polar Maritime]

The slack Northerly is still there for the 13/14th, The GFS has really hung on to this for many days into low resolution considering it's minor detail. 

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows high pressure in control until midweek with fine and mainly dry conditions with sunny spells and light winds and chilly nights where skies clear. Thursday is the day of change, thundery rain pushing north across southern England, spreading up to northern England later and also warm and humid in the southeast in particular, further thundery rain and showers pushing north through Friday and again warm and muggy in the south.

By next weekend this run shows cooler and showery conditions spreading south and covering the UK, 17-18c in the south, around 10-12c for northern Britain and colder on northern hills.

Next week shows a gradual change to warmer and sunnier weather as the Azores high builds north east, the south of the UK becoming very warm, the north stays unsettled for longer but eventually high pressure becomes nationwide and the charts later in low res look very summery, becoming very warm / hot across England and Wales, a fantastic end to the run.

Edited June 8, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The ECM is only very briefly entertaining an  incursion of cold air in northern Scotland on Sunday as it moves the low on a more northerly track.

chart weatherbell

Edited June 8, 2015 by knocker

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The Gfs 00z shows high pressure in control until midweek with fine and mainly dry conditions with sunny spells and light winds and chilly nights where skies clear. Thursday is the day of change, thundery rain pushing north across southern England, spreading up to northern England later and also warm and humid in the southeast in particular, further thundery rain and showers pushing north through Friday and again warm and muggy in the south.

By next weekend this run shows cooler and showery conditions spreading south and covering the UK, 17-18c in the south, around 10-12c for northern Britain and colder on northern hills.

Next week shows a gradual change to warmer and sunnier weather as the Azores high builds north east, the south of the UK becoming very warm, the north stays unsettled for longer but eventually high pressure becomes nationwide and the charts later in low res look very summery, becoming very warm / hot across England and Wales, a fantastic end to the run.

 

I go in for surgery on the 22nd and of work for 3 weeks so this is pure music to my ears.. Although the surgery where it is heat would ideally not help but hey ho I can lay outside naked! 

[mushymanrob]

hints that the azores high might build in next week (thus supporting several gfs fi evolutions)



promising?...

[Summer Sun]

hints that the azores high might build in next week (thus supporting several gfs fi evolutions)

814day.03.gif

promising?...

 

The GFS ens is consistent with this too, as it is again this morning the question marks are its position if it stays west of the UK we'd have a northwesterly flow, thus some fresher air and chilly along the eastern coasts but if it can drift over the UK like this mornings run temperatures would respond nicely

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

The GFS ens is consistent with this too, as it is again this morning the question marks are its position if it stays west of the UK we'd have a northwesterly flow, thus some fresher air and chilly along the eastern coasts but if it can drift over the UK like this mornings run temperatures would respond nicely

 

indeed... this month (at least) is shaping up to be one dominated by the behaviour of the azores high.. which can be our friend, or foe, deliver warm sunny weather when it drifts closer to us, or anchor itself far enough away to keep us in a cooler northwesterly flow. ok, the northwesterly has been fresh and pleasant in the daytime, but chilly at night. if it drifts far enough away itll allow topplers around its northern flank.

at least its currently preventing a southerly tracking jet and a june monsoon, but its also preventing some real heat off the continent.

[summer blizzard]

GFS much more settled as we enter FI this morning however Euro and GEM are less keen..

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Time for some positive news for the majority of us here...

Delightfully, it looks like the GFS op is increasingly becoming alone in suggesting a northerly around the 14th. 0z ensembles show the op and only a few other members supporting the cool northerly for many places. Something closer to the ECM seems likely.

Decent support after that for pressure to maintain itself between 1020 and 1030mb and 850hpa temps between 5-10c.

Very very reasonable if it came off. Though a mix of opinions regarding next week so far mainly in whether it will be unsettled or settled.

Edited June 8, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[shaky]

no doubt the gfs o6z has moved towards the more thundery and humid ecm!!thursday and friday could be pretty warm across england and wales!!temps getting close to that 25 degree mark again!!its amazing how long and late the gfs has taken to finally agree with the ecm for the end of this week!!

[William of Walworth]

I'm daring to start looking towards the Glastonbury period (deep FI, week starting Monday 22nd June).

 

Some tentative (and obviously very early) synoptic signals against a washout ... but I'll be remaining very cautious for the time being. J10 in his Glasto blogs is also being suitably cautious.

Edited June 8, 2015 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows very warm and humid air spreading up across England and Wales later this week, warmest in the southeast on friday where 80F could be recorded, a thundery low brings T-Storms risk into the far south late Thursday and the risk of torrential downpours and thunder extends north through Friday into Saturday, there is no cool northerly for England and Wales on this run for next weekend, it stays warm and humid next weekend with sunshine and thundery showers with temps into the low 20's celsius but much lower across northern uk.

[Hairy Celt]

Not sure where else to pop this question, but for projected windspeeds on GFS, for what height above ground level are these given?

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead, after a day or so of cooler temperatures at the start of next week, the Gfs 6z shows high pressure building in across the south bringing a return to pleasantly warm and settled conditions, at least for the southern half of the UK.

[Nouska]

Not sure where else to pop this question, but for projected windspeeds on GFS, for what height above ground level are these given?

 

The wind speeds are for ten metres above ground.

[Tamara]

 

Yesterdays observations about the stand-off between air-masses to the north and south of the UK are maintained in ever closer focus as we draw towards the period in question of the retrogression of the High pressure over and just to the west of the UK later this week

 

As suspected the influence of the Scandi trough looked a little overstated yesterday in its southward extent to cover the whole of the UK. I continue to be sceptical that the GFS suggestions of recent modelling look a little too extensive in this respect.

 

Its a dogs breakfast of an outlook from the weekend. It may well evolve eventually to a different kind of NW/SE split. I think that if forecast suggestions of the GWO orbit phase 2 towards and especially into 3 verified at face value, that will be the signal for the pattern to become more mobile generally, for a short time, as the amplified state of the retrogressed high in the western Atlantic flattens out from upstream.

 

However, as already hinted, this might well be the cue for the Azores High to ridge eastwards again and promote a downstream ridge over Europe, whilst at the same time weather fronts pass to the NW .

 

This scenario might attempt to pull humid air to the south northwards again in another attempted plume - but *caveat disclaimer*  this evolution is a long way off and very uncertain at this time

Copied the above points from previous post, as the suggested points of possibility/probability are gaining greater confidence

 

The GFS has been slowly coming round to the idea muted yesterday that the longer draw northerly was increasingly becoming isolated in model consensus, and instead amplification has been adjusted to the modelling of the thundery low to the south, so that the warmer humid air has more advancement northwards instead of a rush of cool air south. 

 

If you happen to be inclined to believing the enchantments of intra day output, this puts a different complexion on such apparent face value model output of the last couple of days (wrt GFS mainly) even though those furthest north will still understandably be very "meh" over the changes

 

Its not a settled situation further south either - with the risk of some large totals of rain being racked up in the showers and storms that now seem likely over a wider area than was anticipated

 

The latest ECM London ensembles show how the 3 to 5 day period has upgraded warmth expectations from low confidence recently. The ECM operational has given good lead here I think

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

This is also where looking at the bigger picture and the rather tedious and boring technical tools  can prove very useful, not just for longer term use, but also can help read between the lines a bit with synoptics a bit in the shorter term as well

 

Closer micro detail for the UK might be starting to be show some obvious changes, but the macro picture is still, unsurprisingly, exactly the same one outlined previously.

 

For the end of the week into the weekend, the amplified retrogressed ridge in the Atlantic is present with the more marked trough (albeit receding with time) over Scandinavia and the much slacker unstable low pressure arrangement over the UK and Europe This classically fits synoptic evolution as per guidance offered by GWO Phase 1, orbiting, albeit a little erratically into high amplitude Phase 2.

 

This high amplitude Phase 2 onwards to Phase 3 progression is now gaining further traction, and looking set to providing the breakdown of the amplified ridge to the west through next week and ushering in a more mobile phase of weather to follow the little pic n' mix later this week and into the weekend.

 

*So, caution caveat of yesterday removed just a little*

 

That traditional NW/SE split looks more and more likely

 

For those who are so disposed towards it, the suggested plume further out in FI, as a result of downstream pressure build over Europe (as the pattern flattens out and Azores High ridges east at the same time as potential trough advancement comes from the Atlantic) may still verify in far flung fantasy island. 

 

Ironically though, but not really that surprisingly, one has appeared out of shorter notice for the southern half of the UK later this week when there a fair bit of talk has been about anomalous widespread UK-wide coolness. Once again, acknowledgement is given to those much further NW with the much lower temperatures that persist there, who will be seeing things from a different perspective of course

 

Whatever weather preferences one may have, the capriciousness and unpredictability of "local" weather in the UK never ceases to surprise

Edited June 8, 2015 by Tamara

[Milhouse]

Still the finer details to be ironed out but theres no doubt the end of the week into the weekend is now looking quite warm and humid

 

And high pressure builds in to settle things down for the start of the new week.

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Milhouse

[Frosty.]

I like the look of the Gfs 12z next week, becoming warm / very warm across southern UK with high pressure building in across the south, it gets better, turns into a very good run through low res.

Edited June 8, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

We can't count our chickens just yet as it's not in a reliable timeframe but if pressure does build next week, then some credit must be given to the GFS ens which has shown this for quite a few runs now as I mentioned this morning the position of the high is open to question still but at the moment it looks favourable for some decent temperatures