Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[SE Blizzards]

The GEM 12Z has virtually the whole of the UK under sub Zero uppers at Day 7, (June 14th), with the far North of England and Scotland experiencing -4 uppers..?

 

 

 

Quite staggering for the time of year.

 

Surely that would be some sort of record if that was to verify?

 

I wonder if anyone can find uppers as low as these in mid June in years gone by?

Edited June 7, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows largely fine and pleasantly warm weather for most of the week ahead, close to 70F just after midweek, gradually becoming unsettled for next weekend and then during the following week, the azores/atlantic high builds in again, FI is a lot nicer than yesterday's gfs 12z.

[Captain Shortwave]

After a cool couple of days, temperatures should recover back to average or to even rather warm conditions by Thursday

We should reach the low twenties just in quite a few locations, given the light winds it should feel pleasant. The UKMO for the same time looks a little warmer with any fronts in the north staying away from the mainland.

 

Still uncertainty on how the low ejects, the UKMO stalls the low over the south west of England which could be quite interesting with slow moving thundery downpours spinning up from the south warm conditions, in fact Fridays chart would suggest thundery rain pushing up from the continent along with rising temperatures and humidity.

 

The GFS still ejects the low north east through France

The weekend looks cool and unsettled as low pressure slides between the Azores ridge and weak heights to the north.

 

The GEM is different to both with the low remaining over the Bay of Biscay but with a strong push of cold air from the south

Very warm for a time in the south. I suspect the cold plunge is being overdone on the GEM, especially as the other models have moved away from this solution.

 

Overall I think we haven't made any real progress on how conditions will pan out beyond this Thursday.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

The GEM 12Z has virtually the whole of the UK under sub Zero uppers at Day 7, (June 14th), with the far North of England and Scotland experiencing -4 uppers..?

 

 

 

Quite staggering for the time of year.

 

Surely that would be some sort of record if that was to verify?

 

I wonder if anyone can find uppers as low as these in mid June in years gone by?

 

No point in looking until they have actually occurred.

Edited June 7, 2015 by knocker

[Methuselah]

No point in looking until they have actually occurred.

But we all do, don't we???

[SE Blizzards]

No point in looking until they have actually occurred.

 

I never said they would occur. This is the MOD thread and i'm just posting what is being shown.

 

It's just staggering a model is predicting uppers as low as this for the middle of the first month of summer!

Edited June 7, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Nouska]

I never said they would occur. This is the MOD thread and i'm just posting what is being shown.

 

It's just staggering that a model in the middle of the first month of summer is predicting uppers as low as this.

 

The 0c degree isotherm was frequently over the whole of the UK in June 1972 - it is a summer I remember well due to wedding weather worries. Another year where the Atlantic was very cool round our shores, with a warm el Nino in development in the Pacific.

 

 

Charts for month of June.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=6&day=1&year=1972&map=1&hour=0

Edited June 9, 2015 by Nouska

[SE Blizzards]

The 0c degree isotherm was frequently over the whole of the UK in June 1972 - it is a summer I remember well due to wedding weather worries. Another year where the Atlantic was very cool round our shores, with a warm el Nino in development in the Pacific.

 

 

Charts for month of June.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=6&day=1&year=1972&map=1&hour=0

 

Great stuff. Thanks for that Nouska 

 

Day 8 mean..

 

 

That chart wouldn't look out of place in mid Autumn to be honest.

[Nouska]

Those GEFS forecasts need a little reading between the lines interpreted to them.

 

A little further clarification maybe as to what the chart is showing, (and what it might mean to us on the ground in simple English!)  might help - as it can be confusing!

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png

 

Todays forecast in the link continues to show angular momentum falling as the Global Wind Oscillation heads back from Phase 4 (transitional toppling AAM stage) to Phase 1 (low AAM phase) as predicted and detailed in many recent posts.

 

Phase 2 is a transitional state to higher AAM (Phase 3) 

 

Convection in the Indian Ocean (MJO passage to MJO Phase 3) can always be taken as a signal for the GWO to head to low AAM state Phase 1/2. Orbit stuck in Phases 1/2 signifies a persisting low AAM state, but orbit which takes the GWO towards (and into) Phase 3 signifies a rebound of momentum towards higher AAM momentum (Stage 3 itself)

 

The high amplitude Phase 2 orbit towards 3 predicted in the model forecast representation is indicative of the relative strength of upswing in momentum that is predicted from the low state in Phases 1/2. However, future forecasts will determine the longevity of the upcoming low AAM phase, and ascertain if the amplitude re-bound to higher momentum is too progressive. Based on the Indian ocean MJO forecasts, its as well to be cautious for the moment.

 

Interpreted and translated into simpler synoptic language the forecast is representative of the initial retrogression of the High pressure in the Atlantic later this week (Phase 4 heading back to 1). Amplified Atlantic state in Phases 1/2 is indicative of UK/Europe lower pressure anomaly and more marked Scandinavian trough. Then, in the further outlook, any increase in amplitude in Phase 2 towards Phase 3 signifies a breaking down of the amplified state in the central/western Atlantic as the Pacific jet stream gathers strength upstream.

 

This implies that any cooler northerly regime in the amplified GWO Phase 1/2 state should break down during GWO Phase 2/3 passage as the upstream jet pattern changes, pushing the Azores/Atlantic High east. On that basis both GFS and ECM fantasy island modelling today has some credence, and also supports the posts that Knocker has made a few times wrt the anomaly charts.

 

However, the *cautious* caveat is added here. Suggestions of re-bound of the pattern upstream are some way ahead and subject to change as reasoned above

 

Yesterdays observations about the stand-off between air-masses to the north and south of the UK are maintained in ever closer focus as we draw towards the period in question of the retrogression of the High pressure over and just to the west of the UK later this week

 

As suspected the influence of the Scandi trough looked a little overstated yesterday in its southward extent to cover the whole of the UK. I continue to be sceptical that the GFS suggestions of recent modelling look a little too extensive in this respect.

 

Nevertheless, with pressure leaking away, the cool air will make some inroads southwards at the same time as the warm humid air over the continent brushes with SE parts. 

 

I think the jaundiced perception of the late Spring/early Summer has quite some justification and sympathy attached in some of these northern parts.

 

Its a dogs breakfast of an outlook from the weekend. It may well evolve eventually to a different kind of NW/SE split. I think that if forecast suggestions of the GWO orbit phase 2 towards and especially into 3 verified at face value, that will be the signal for the pattern to become more mobile generally, for a short time, as the amplified state of the retrogressed high in the western Atlantic flattens out from upstream.

 

However, as already hinted, this might well be the cue for the Azores High to ridge eastwards again and promote a downstream ridge over Europe, whilst at the same time weather fronts pass to the NW .

 

This scenario might attempt to pull humid air to the south northwards again in another attempted plume - but *caveat disclaimer*  this evolution is a long way off and very uncertain at this time

 

Tamara, many thanks.

 

I found this most helpful and am sure many others will too.

[Winter Cold]

I never said they would occur. This is the MOD thread and i'm just posting what is being shown.

 

It's just staggering a model is predicting uppers as low as this for the middle of the first month of summer!

 

Both GFS and ECM were doing it yesterday aswell and I posted about it. It keeps cropping up but the other two have watered it down a lot today. Still very interesting though, it cant have happened much, if ever!

[BlueHedgehog074]

A peculiar 12Z GFS run for next Monday. The Low that swims away to the East of the UK, which then peeps back at us, looks very fishy. 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Great stuff. Thanks for that Nouska 

 

Day 8 mean..

 

 

That chart wouldn't look out of place in mid Autumn to be honest.

To be fair that is the coolest part of the entire ensemble suite, and even then the profile was cooler today which still managed to produce average temperatures in the south. That said the north would be quite chilly.

The mean for the end of the week is creeping up (up to +10C in the south east), suggesting there is an increasing chance of warmer and more thundery conditions developing for a time. 

 

Still a lot to be resolved for plumegate part 2 (subtitle pending.....)

 

The ECM is coming out now, it has picked up on a little feature running through the north Atlantic

Note the shallow low (1020mb) that gets absorbed into the mess over the west of Iberia and edges the ridge over the UK, the chart for Thursdays is fine and warm for the whole of the UK, perhaps very warm in the south.

Very warm, humid and increasingly showery as we end the week and enter the weekend. 

Edited June 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

ecm is interesting - might have expected it to swing back but it hasnt. if anything, its going stronger and still taking the upper low west at day 5. doesn't look too different to GEM to our south. seems plenty still to play for

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a cool unsettled blip next weekend but the following week shows a marked improvement with the azores high ridging towards the UK, although I don't like the Azores high in winter, I can't get enough of it during the summer and I hope it keeps building and rebuilding our way in the next 3 months.

[049balt]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a cool unsettled blip next weekend but the following week shows a marked improvement with the azores high ridging towards the UK, although I don't like the Azores high in winter, I can't get enough of it during the summer and I hope it keeps building and rebuilding our way in the next 3 months.

As Tamara pointed out to us all our weather pattern is changing and for the better. I don't understand why we are getting frosts in June.!

[Summer Sun]

Interesting run from ECM so far with some warmer air from Thursday

 

 

A risk of thunderstorms in the south at times, but in general pressure is higher than previous runs

 

 

 

[knocker]

This evenings GEFs anomalies has the upper trough on Friday aligned SE from the eastern Pole to Iceland with a cut off low just south of the UK which could produce some fireworks, so to speak. On Saturday the trough realignes N/S over the UK into N. Europe.

 

From here on in it begins to dissipate as HP builds from the SW by the 17th and remains until the end of the run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 7, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

As Tamara pointed out to us all our weather pattern is changing and for the better!

Agreed, I'm glad Tamara is posting through the summer, superb.

[johnholmes]

As Tamara pointed out to us all our weather pattern is changing and for the better. I don't understand why we are getting frosts in June.!

 

Flattered as T may be I do think a few of you should read what she actually wrote.

As to why we get frosts in June, not unusual, certainly for ground frost over most parts of the UK. An airmass from a cold source, not much wind at night with clear skies, especially in known frost hollows and frosts will occur. The highest dewpoint here today has been 6.7C and as low as 3.5C during the day. So the air is certainly from a cold source.

[Methuselah]

Agreed, I'm glad Tamara is posting through the summer, superb.

And in the mean time, a coolish and mostly fine week might end on a rather thundery note; mostly from the Midlands southward...And all that in one sentence!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening little change in the output over the next few days , but gfs and ecm differing at T+168,,,,,

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a cool unsettled blip next weekend but the following week shows a marked improvement with the azores high ridging towards the UK, although I don't like the Azores high in winter, I can't get enough of it during the summer and I hope it keeps building and rebuilding our way in the next 3 months.

As much as I agree with you Frosty, the Azores high is only good in my view if it builds right over us and then becomes a Scandi/Euro high to then pump the real heat up our way from Spain, France and Germany etc. 

 

The Azores high when over the Azores often tends to produce a drab Northwesterly like what we've been seeing through all of spring. Hopefully we will keep the trend of it building our way in the coming days and weeks.

[knocker]

There is very good agreement between the anomalies for Friday so more confidence than of late with the evolution. Thereafter, although not identical at T240 they are both agreed on the HP influence from the SW until the end of the ext period. Not ideal for heatwaves but settled and dry so I'll settle for it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Man With Beard]

There is very good agreement between the anomalies for Friday so more confidence than of late with the evolution. Thereafter, although not identical at T240 they are both agreed on the HP influence from the SW until the end of the ext period. Not ideal for heatwaves but settled and dry so I'll settle for it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

confidence in the anomalies yes, confidence in the weather we will get, no!! We're right between all the anomalies!

[knocker]

confidence in the anomalies yes, confidence in the weather we will get, no!! We're right between all the anomalies!

 

I would have thought someone with your expertise could make a pretty good stab at the surface analysis from that upper air pattern assuming it correct. And I don't mean the fine detail such as a heavy shower at Tunbridge Wells at 1530!!

Edited June 7, 2015 by knocker