Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

 

 That is an interesting GWO forecast chart, really tanking if correct. I had a look through the archives on the site to look at other strong Nino years - only two in the archive period but very different to the present time.

 

We are similar to and forecast to track the '97 event but have a look at the AAM for '97 as compared to the present time.

 

   

 

Is it this divergence that is causing all the NWP changes - new algorithms needed!

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/ncep_ncar_archive/

 

Hi Nouska

 

Very interesting but I must admit I'm developing a severe headache. I'm still mulling over what Tamara posted concerning the AAM tumbling very low when historically the AAM is known to increase with tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during El Niño events. No doubt I've missed something along the way and as my grandaddy used to say a little knowledge is dangerous.

[Frosty.]

that's right Frosty! my ideal summer weather, no humidity, warm days light, preferably no wind, surely nobody can dislike 20C, sunny and no wind in Summer?

Agreed, let's enjoy the fine pleasant, fresher weather which will last at least until next thurs/fri instead of glossing over that and moaning about a possibly more unsettled outlook, the outlook is not necessarily going to be unsettled

Edited June 6, 2015 by Frosty.

[049balt]

Agreed, let's enjoy the fine pleasant, fresher weather which will last at least until next thurs/fri instead of glossing over that and moaning about a possibly more unsettled outlook, the outlook is not necessarily going to be unsettled

Its what is happening after next weekend that interests me, in the context of Tamara's posts I feel we will continue to get some good weather.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, A few posts have been moved here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/.

Please can we keep personal weather preferances to other relevant threads, And keep discussion to what the Model Outputs are showing.

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited June 6, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Hi Nouska

 

Very interesting but I must admit I'm developing a severe headache. I'm still mulling over what Tamara posted concerning the AAM tumbling very low when historically the AAM is known to increase with tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during El Niño events. No doubt I've missed something along the way and as my grandaddy used to say a little knowledge is dangerous.

 

I've just seen this and I think the 'interesting El Nino' was the point I was missing.

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

Low AAM (-GWO); neutral SOI; very interesting El Nino at play. Yet upper-levels are in a strong Nino state (AEI).

[Nouska]

I've just seen this and I think the 'interesting El Nino' was the point I was missing.

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

Low AAM (-GWO); neutral SOI; very interesting El Nino at play. Yet upper-levels are in a strong Nino state (AEI).

 

It is not a subject I know anything about (other than GP's writings) - when I read Tamara's post with the GEFS extreme forecast, I looked to see if Nicolas Schiraldi had an archive to look for similar events. I was hoping someone might be able to shed more light.

From the tone of Dr Ventrice it must be notable and unusual?

[bluearmy]

The ECM 12 z op illustrates why we possibly need the Azores high to retrogresses well west if we want to see a sustained period of better conditions (with warmth).

[summer blizzard]

Euro capitulates more or less through day 8. We have a nice period from now through Wednesday and then at some time Thursday and Friday we will see fronts move through the UK with some kind of broadly cyclonic northerly following. 

 

GEM probably the worst of the lot with the 0C isotherm through the whole of the UK - incredible at this time of year. 

 

[summer blizzard]

The ECM 12 z op illustrates why we possibly need the Azores high to retrogresses well west if we want to see a sustained period of better conditions (with warmth).

 

NOAA anomalies have not recently supported it. To see that you want the southern stream over the western USA to torch and produce a cut-off low (more common during winter Nino's than summer - we did see something similar during April).. 

Edited June 6, 2015 by summer blizzard

[Cloud 10]

A cross polar flow from the ECM day 7 mean as we head for the middle of June!

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

NOAA anomalies have not recently supported it. To see that you want the southern stream over the western USA to torch and produce a cut-off low (more common during winter Nino's than summer - we did see something similar during April)..

I agree - just saying what I think is required to drive a mid Atlantic trough and upstream euro block.

Anyway, the mist has cleared through the day and what is revealed is broadly In line with what the American models have been showing for a couple of days. We just don't seem able to shake off the mean northerly flow. I wonder if we might be setting any records for average 850's through a summer month. of course, those of us with years of experience will be wondering if the swing back might come before August is out.

[Winter Cold]

Youd have thought looking at the 12z GEFS that the GFS was having a laugh as it rolled out the worst case scenario pretty much with the 850s and therefore surface temps:

 

 

 

But then the ECM produced this aswell this evening. These ECM backdowns are becoming more common arent they, surprising really:

 

 

 

Im not really hot on my weather history but from an enthusiasts point of view its very interesting. Do sub zero uppers ever show up in June normally?

 

I can fully understand the frustration in the threads though. No need to panic yet however, summer has only just begun

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe i.e out to Thursday roughly all models show a very pleasant benign spell with high pressure in resident, but temperatures will be supressed especially in the evening under notably cool uppers for the time of year, minimum temps markedly below average. Still plenty of dry sunny weather with lighter winds compared to recently.

 

The models do appear to be firming up on heights becoming squeezed both from the north and south as lower heights invade with a northerly flow establishing itself keeping temps on the low side.

 

I will be dipping in and out of this thread much less so than normally in the coming weeks due to circumstances.

[coldcomfort]

The 18 run closes the window still further....still the risk of one or two showers for Eng and Wales in particular Mon/Tue, (tho not widespread) then after dry day Weds more in the way of proper showery rain for Thurs. Couple this outlook with below average temps and you have to ask what all the 'good news' calls are about, because for my money the weather looks pretty pants for the first half of June and it wouldn't look particularly spectacular for the first half of April either truth be told.

[knocker]

The anomalies are firming up to the idea of low pressure over the Pole with troughing south/UK/Spain next Saturday. So low pressure and below average temps for the weekend. The good news is it would appear to be very transitory and by Tuesday the trough is no more with HP building from the south west. The ecm is not keen to correct this quite quickly and but  both keep HP to the SW extending over the UK until the end of the run 21st June. Temps gradually rising to around average.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

 

[knocker]

Stormguy you are in the wrong thread

[Daniel*]

Quite an exceptional synoptic for June - GFS 18z is a horror show if heat is what you're after.

[BlueHedgehog074]

massive Thunderstorm slowely moving into 

Geneva, Switzerland - Live Stream

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-destination/geneva-switzerland/live-stream/

Howdy Stormyguy, might like to try this thread to post your reports regarding that storm: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83244-storm-convective-discussion-010615-onwards/, or start your own thread about it in the Storm & Severe Weather forum section. 

 

As Knocker says, this Model thread isn't really the right place to post that (although I can understand it was probably a mistake).

 

Thanks.

 

Edit: Just a quick look at the 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart from the NOAA and it does seem to follow similar ideas to what a number of operational models are showing with troughing developing over the UK with some of the lower than average heights extending to our South. Higher than average heights pushed out into the Atlantic which could help allow room for Lows to drop towards the North-Western Europe area as well as possibilities of Lows to the South of the UK linking up with Lows to our North. As such, an unsettled and cooler spell could indeed be a possibility for the British Isles (especially with the curvy 500mb flow over us being between the West and North-West) after a few days of High Pressure settling over/to the West of the UK.

 

 

Confidence, though, does drop in the 8 to 14 day version of the chart where the anomalies are quite weak (although there is a slight possibility that troughing could continue to hang about over the British Isles with the higher than average heights to our West edging a bit closer to the UK. Though, again, it is quite a weak signal):

Edited June 6, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[mountain shadow]

hmmm... is it just me or are some posters trying to put an overly negetive spin on the outputs, even to some degree of glee?

overall, there a lot of high pressure dominance/influence, its never far away, with anything unsettled or/and cool being transitory. yes we are likely to get a cool northerly next weekend, so what? its not expected to last more then a day or two before more high pressure re-builds. frosty illustrates this by posting the mean charts.

we currently have a very promising 5 days odd (away from the north today) of dry, fresh, sunny, weather with temps average or there abouts (according the the bbc weathermen). whats not to like? and theres a strong promis of more to come after a blip or two.

i reckon theres a damn good chance of something hot emerging sooner or later, as long as we are dallying with high pressure at this time of the year, its only a question of time imho.

And how's that looking now?

GFS has been on the money for the return of the unseasosonal weather, the Euros playing catch up.

[SE Blizzards]

Just thought i would post this...

 

Central Scotland.

 

 

Snow risk 5 - 10% in the middle of 'Flaming' June??? Even the 18z Op itself had Wintry showers in Scotland for the same time frame.

 

I wonder how often that has occurred at the back end of week 2 of Summer? 

 

Answer.... Probably never!?

Edited June 7, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[knocker]

And how's that looking now?

GFS has been on the money for the return of the unseasosonal weather, the Euros playing catch up.

 

it's still looking much the same. According to the American models of course. About four days or so of LP and cooler conditions before the return of the HP and maybe gradually above average temps. 

Edited June 7, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[knocker]

The GFS ops run this morning could be called the dance of the LPs. So just an observation that next weekend it now has the low winging down Cornwall/France/ North sea.

 

Preceding that a dry and settled week with plenty of sunny spells for most.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 7, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

The 00z ECM op pops up to remind us this isn't quite sorted. looks like it's unlikely with no real support but given e mist has only just cleared, you couldn't discount it.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM

A generally easterly flow, quite warm in the south with the continental influence, a front would straddle the country though precipitation would probably be light.

 

UKMO

Looks potentially very wet for the south with the Biscay low travelling north east. Cold too in parts.

 

GFS

Rain pushing up from the south and a weak front travelling south introducing cooler air. It turns very wet later in the south.

 

GEM

Similar to the GFS and UKMO with the potential for wet conditions, especially in the south.

[knocker]

The 00z ECM op pops up to remind us this isn't quite sorted. looks like it's unlikely with no real support but given e mist has only just cleared, you couldn't discount it.

 

I see what you mean, barby time in the south west on Sunday. One things for sure Nouska wouldn't want that chart to verify.