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Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

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A new thread for a new Month. And a new Season upon us that is Summer, What will June have in store after what is a cool wet end to Spring?


 


As ever, Please keep it to friendly model related discussion in this thread, And head over to the banter Spring/Summer thread for moans, groans, ramps and more general chat:


https://forum.netwea...5/#entry3178481


 


We also have the Summer thread open for wider discussion:


https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82826-summer-2015/


 


If you're wondering where you can view the models, Many of them are available here on Netweather, Including the GFS,ECM, Ensembles, our own NetWx models, and others - All available from the Charts and Data page here:


http://www.netweathe...-and-data;sess=


 


Please be polite and respectful to other members on following the Forum Rules here;


 


https://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=extras&section=boardrules


 


Old thread is here.. 


 


https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83046-model-output-discussion-3rd-may-onwards-00z/page-46#entry3207875


 


Many Thanks, Please continue,  PM.


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Summary of the week ahead..

 

Tuesday sees awful weather along with the rest of today looking at the radar..

 

20150601.0453.PPVG89.png

 

Wednesday and Thursday then see drier and sunnier weather (especially further south and east)..

 

20150601.0530.PPVL89.png

 

A weak cold front then comes on Friday..

 

20150531.2110.PPVO89.png

 

Euro and GEM by day 10 have a poorer pattern persisting, GFS keeps pressure high.

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The Gfs 6z looks very warm and humid from the Midlands southwards on Friday with mid to high 70's / low 80's F and sunny spells but there is a risk of heavy thundery showers, especially in the west, the weekend looks best in the south, cooler than Friday but pleasantly warm and fine for the south and east thanks to a ridge of high pressure, more unsettled further northwest. High pressure becomes dominant next week and warming up into the low 70's F...much better than the recent/current dross :)

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Well 12 hours on and the differences between the GFS and UKMO are as stark as ever.

GFS

gfs-0-96.png?12

Pretty decent chart for the south on Friday with potentially thundery rain pushing north during the evening. Very warm in the south.

 

UKMO

UW96-21.GIF?01-18

The low is several hundred miles north east of the position the GFS sees it. Not as warm and a much lower potential in thundery activity.

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Well 12 hours on and the differences between the GFS and UKMO are as stark as ever.

GFS

gfs-0-96.png?12

Pretty decent chart for the south on Friday with potentially thundery rain pushing north during the evening. Very warm in the south.

 

UKMO

UW96-21.GIF?01-18

The low is several hundred miles north east of the position the GFS sees it.

Still amounts to pretty much the same conditions across the UK though CS, i.e rain/thundery rain moving east on Friday, with much cooler, fresher and initially showery weather returning from the Atlantic. 

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The differences continue at t120, GFS has low pressure shifting away the warm air as the day goes on

 

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

But UKMO high pressure closer by with only the far north more at risk of some rain

 

UW120-21.GIF?01-18

 

t144 from UKMO has the high back over all the UK temperatures most likely around or slightly above average, whist GFS has low pressure still close by though improving in the south as the high slowly edges up

 

UW144-21.GIF?01-18gfs-0-144.png?12

 

Until these differences are resolved its anyones guess as to what the weekend will bring

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as i sed earlier today about the gfs shifting the plume even further west for friday and it has done just that on the 12z!!could be a pretty sweltry day across england and wales with plenty of thunderstorms for western areas on friday!!ukmo still looking cooler but more settled!!which model is gone be right?

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The Gfs 12z for Friday is a very warm sultry day across the south of the UK with a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms due to a brief pulse of continental heat, that's swept away east next weekend but the south/se should be pleasant with sunny spells whilst the north and northwest looks more unsettled but then next week is shaping up to become anticyclonic and warm with a good deal of sunshine. :)

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Even if the UKMO is correct it means temperatures in the north average at best and with a lot of cloud off the Atlantic.

Compared to the light easterlies promised a few days ago it's pure crap and only slightly better than what we have had all May.

The SE will do a lot better but a nationwide heat wave is now a lost cause.

Andy

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Compared to the light easterlies promised a few days ago it's pure crap and only slightly better than what we have had all May.

The SE will do a lot better but a nationwide heat wave is now a lost cause.

Andy

I don't understand the doom and gloom, next week looks warm and anticyclonic, not only the Gfs showing good weather next week, more crucially, the met office are too..cheer up :)

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Looks rubbish in Wakefield Frosty so I don't see where your enthusiasm is coming from.

Next week looks okay I think, especially the GFS op once the weekend low clears, light winds and temperatures probably coming out in the low twenties wouldn't be too bad. That said compared to the 80-90F heat shown a couple of days back then this is a big step down. I guess it still beats the weather we are currently experiencing.

There is a 25% cluster which keeps the warmth and subsequent thundery activity hanging on into Saturday in the east, probably the only real warmth related hope I can give and even then it is rather localised.

 

Otherwise model wise, well the UKMO 12z is similar to the 00z, the GFS 12z is similar to the 00z and the GEM 12z is similar to the 00z. So frankly we haven't moved very far in terms of getting a grip of how things will pan out.

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Things still looking on course for a fair first half of June after the current blip.

 

The GEFS anomalies tonight have the culprit, the upper trough to our NW, swinging like a pendulum from Wednesday through Saturday before being replaced by HP building from the W/SW. After that everything is hunky dory, pleasant without being too hot. Let's pray with Fred the Squirrel.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Plenty of settled weather around we have the first high moving in on Wednesday before slowly shifting eastwards by Friday

 

gens-21-1-48.png?12gens-21-1-96.png?12

 

Then by Sunday a new high builds in this one potentially lasting longer

 

gens-21-1-144.pnggens-21-1-168.png?12gens-21-1-240.png?12

 

Plenty of hope for a decent settled spell the biggest question mark is what happens Friday & Saturday with the position of the low

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To update from my earlier the latest NAO forecast:

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

So an initial slight dip from today back to neutrality followed by a sharp return to positivity and then it's off a cliff.

 

What can we deduce from that ? I'd suggest the return to positivity could be caused by LP stalling to the west and allowing pressure to rise near or just to the east of the British Isles which would explain the possibility of a brief draw of warm southerly air.

 

Now, what to make of the sudden and steep dive to negativity and quite a deep negativity (perhaps -2). Negative NAO suggests HP to the north and LP to the south and the prospect of an anticyclone based to the north of the British Isles fits the bill nicely with attendant LP to the south. The synoptic evolution favoured by some of the models and emphasised this morning by GFS of HP to the north looks the favoured option but with the possibility of that HP migrating west or north-west and allowing cooler air to venture further south on a jet easing south all the time.

 

It now seems likely that any heat will be short-lived but will be replaced by something settled but more warm than hot though the possibility of a reversion to a frankly disappointing set up as we approach mid-month remains on the table.

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Early stages of ECM, mostly settled Wednesday, Thursday then low pressure having more of an effect Friday, Saturday before high pressure re-builds during Sunday

 

Recm721.gifRecm1201.gifRecm1441.gif

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The Ecm 12z looks good next week with high pressure building in from the west and becoming warm. In the meantime, the current cool, windy unsettled weather will be replaced by warmer and drier conditions for a few days, temperatures rising with increasing amounts of sunshine on wed/thurs with Friday being the warmest day for the south at around 27c 81f and a risk of thundery rain pushing north. The weekend looks cooler and fresher but pleasantly warm and largely fine in the south and east but the northwest of the UK more unsettled, nice next week. :)

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The Ecm 12z looks good next week with high pressure building in from the west and becoming warm. In the meantime, the current cool, windy unsettled weather will be replaced by warmer and drier conditions for a few days, temperatures rising with increasing amounts of sunshine on wed/thurs with Friday being the warmest day for the south at around 27c 81f and a risk of thundery rain pushing north. The weekend looks cooler and fresher but pleasantly warm and largely fine in the south and east but the northwest of the UK more unsettled, nice next week. :)

Frosty, we will get there, sooner or a little bit later.

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Frosty, we will get there, sooner or a little bit later.

Agreed, the meteorological summer is only 1 day old, this week is an improving picture and all the models I have seen indicate a warm anticyclonic spell next week, best of all, the met office outlook is for a lot of warm and fine weather this month with a risk of a few thundery outbreaks mid June. :)

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Those ECM 12z images that Summer Sun posted show the LP's influence more confined to North and West this coming weekend (Fri 5th/Sat 6th) than in some earlier runs.

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Evening all.....The plume of some sorts has been rather washed down as expected, I think perhaps London for instance will reach the dizzy heights of 80f on Friday if all goes to plan, but its still a long way off! The rest of the country will see the the cold front moving steadily southeast, thunderstorms perhaps, Its all speculation at the moment, the forecast will go down to the wire...After that back to the same routine..... :closedeyes:

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what has grabbed my attention is the mobility of the pattern, despite the models trying to predict it would become amplified. in this scenario, mean charts covering several days (eg cpc) become very difficult to use as they cannot show the fleeting systems that are likely to nip in and out of the equation. what looks like a settled set up could easily have two poor days in 6 and the chart would still verify well.

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It was on, then it was off, now it looks back on again. Fridays plume im talking about.

 

Reem962.gif

And after that it looks like high pressure proper is going to pay us a visit.

 

Reem1681.gif

Except temps in the north wont be that special

 

Reem1682.gif

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Pretty good agreement between the anomalies tonight confirming a more stable period with HP in the Atlantic and NW Europe with the slack area of LP adjacent to Spain. Low pressure over the Pole and no dreaded Canadian vortex.

 

Looking at the 200mb wind pattern the jet has gone walkies.

 

There is a suspicion in the NOAA 8-14 of pressure falling over the UK and NW Europe, also signaled by the GEFs at the end of the ext period so a beady need be kept.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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It was on, then it was off, now it looks back on again. Fridays plume im talking about.

 

Reem962.gif

And after that it looks like high pressure proper is going to pay us a visit.

 

Reem1681.gif

Except temps in the north wont be that special

 

Reem1682.gif

 

GFS revisiting the retrogression theme again once again in FI

 

post-10987-0-04249200-1433207135_thumb.p

 

post-10987-0-90081800-1433207155_thumb.p

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