Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Harry]

My interpretation of the GFS 06z is that it is a slight improvement - flicking between the 00z and 06z it looks at first like a subtle shift east, however the plume appears to become more established and appears to enhance the instability, as well as continue the threat of overnight action across S England Thursday into Friday.

I would be very wary of any IPhone app that has a thunderstorm on a train in Sidcup.

 Lol

[Pat Butcher]

Whoever said we might get excited when LightningWizard's charts come into range was spot on. Looking at LightningWizard for 09Z on Friday I'd posit this is a classic Estofex Level 1 scenario for mainly the South Eastern tip of England and to a lesser extent mainland England as far as Bristol in the West and Newcastle in the North. Low level CAPE in a minimally heated environment, but with 150-300m2/s2 SRH1 and 40-60kt to greatly assist organisation should anything happen to develop.

Edited June 3, 2015 by Davethedog

[Ben Sainsbury]

Whoever said we might get excited when LightningWizard's charts come into range was spot on. Looking at LightningWizard for 09Z on Friday I'd posit this is a classic Estofex Level 1 scenario for mainly the South Eastern tip of England and to a lesser extent mainland England as far as Bristol in the West and Newcastle in the North. Low level CAPE in a minimally heated environment, but with 150-300m2/s2 SRH1 and 40-60kt to greatly assist organisation should anything happen to develop.

I would most have to agree with that the latest GFS indicating a few thunderstorms right through the spine of Southern England indicated by the instability and precipitation, then it moves eastwards the potential through the day. I at this range well be expecting a few storms to form across North France around late evening Thursday!

A tiny smidge west would see widespread action through all Friday but can't be too greedy😉

Edited June 3, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[ThunderBuddy21]

Could someone tell me what time frame we're looking at for the worst of the storms if they come? I'm petrified of lightning and work 6-9pm, considering pulling a sickie

[Harry]

I would most have to agree with that the latest GFS indicating a few thunderstorms right through the spine of Southern England indicated by the instability and precipitation, then it moves eastwards the potential through the day. I at this range well be expecting a few storms to form across North France around late evening Thursday!image.jpgimage.jpg

A tiny smidge west would see widespread action through all Friday but can't be too greedy

 

Yes you can be greedy, feel free!!

 

It's frustrating as a subtle revision could see it spread across much of England (or vanish altogether). If either the Low can evolve less quickly and/or the ridge over Europe can spread its tentacles a fraction further west, the outcome may be completely different.

 

It is pretty apparent that while any convective setup could see critical variations right down to the wire, this one in particular is very much the case!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I would be very wary of any IPhone app that has a thunderstorm on a train in Sidcup.

That would be a training storm system :-P

[timeless]

one thing thats confusing me personally, looking at the GFS as the forecast pages, seems to suggest (GFS wise) that the south west and the west midlands would be in line in the morning (hereford has a 52% possibility at the moment for friday) however the forecast pages push the possibilities towards mid morning/afternoon..

 

granted lve no major clue on how to read most models, but the GFS cape/storm forecast seem to suggest (at this second at least) that instability on those two models moves away to the south east of the country.

[Thunderbolt_]

It really is amazing how on the cusp we are to a very thundery day. The slightest of shifts to the west could see most of England and Wales getting the fireworks on Friday, but the slightest shift to the east could see virtually everywhere missing out, bar the far south east.

 

For my area, I'm not really too optimistic. Manchester isn't the most thundery place in the country and it looks like the plume will remain a little too far east for me, even if some westward shifting does occur...

Edited June 3, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Whoever said we might get excited when LightningWizard's charts come into range was spot on. Looking at LightningWizard for 09Z on Friday I'd posit this is a classic Estofex Level 1 scenario for mainly the South Eastern tip of England and to a lesser extent mainland England as far as Bristol in the West and Newcastle in the North. Low level CAPE in a minimally heated environment, but with 150-300m2/s2 SRH1 and 40-60kt to greatly assist organisation should anything happen to develop.

 

That was me.. And I got slated for it.

[Mapantz]

This is what davethedog was referring to..

One ingredient for supercell/organisation potential. If the charts still like the idea of bringing anything up in the channel in the early hours, I suspect it will be elevated in nature. The potential for stronger storms in the south east arises later in the afternoon/early evening.

Just a flicker of lightning in the channel would do me, for now.

The MetO:

Edited June 3, 2015 by Mapantz

[Utahraptor]

Hoping for a shift to take the plume back to NI... But I'm sure that won't happen at this range

[shaky]

wrf nmm shifts plume slightly further west again!!strong ml cape crossing central and eastern england early Friday morning!!one more shift further west and bingo !!

[stainesbloke]

wrf nmm shifts plume slightly further west again!!strong ml cape crossing central and eastern england early Friday morning!!one more shift further west and bingo !!

Going the right way so far.....get as much heat in from the S as possible and game on

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This makes me a happy bunny..

 

EURO 4 says no to this

 

Edited June 3, 2015 by Surrey

[Nick L]

This makes me a happy bunny..

 

EURO 4 says no to this

 

 

ECM has a very similar feature.

[Harry]

This makes me a happy bunny..

 

EURO 4 says no to this

 

 

I don't like this!! 06z to around 11z storms are usually pony!

 

Would be a much better scenario if this didn't happen and the convection triggered later in the morning/early afternoon (sounding picky now I know lol)

Edited June 3, 2015 by Harry

[Noahjoe]

This makes me a happy bunny..

 

EURO 4 says no to this

 

I don't think it could get any more perfect for where I am so I guess I'm a happy bunny too

[stainesbloke]

I don't like this!! 06z to around 11z storms are usually pony!

 

Would be a much better scenario if this didn't happen and the convection triggered later in the morning/early afternoon (sounding picky now I know lol)

That can definitely be the case though I have occasionally witnessed some violent storms before lunchtime, back in the late 70s and in the 80s. Could be like one of those times!

[A.J]

I don't like this!! 06z to around 11z storms are usually pony!

 

Would be a much better scenario if this didn't happen and the convection triggered later in the morning/early afternoon (sounding picky now I know lol)

bare in mind H, any storms progged by this run will be elevated, wait until subsequent runs roll out tonight/overnight as friday pm will be in the time frame so you can look at the parameters for surface based convection

[Methuselah]

I don't think it could get any more perfect for where I am so I guess I'm a happy bunny too

And if it all moves northeast, I'll be one as well.

[Nick L]

Also, ECM shows an increase/intensification in convection during the afternoon across a swathe of eastern England. Some very humid air with dew points approaching 20c in places (in a line from the Wash down to London) on the most recent run, before the area of interest shifts out into the North Sea by evening.

[Harry]

bare in mind H, any storms progged by this run will be elevated, wait until subsequent runs roll out tonight/overnight as friday pm will be in the time frame so you can look at the parameters for surface based convection

 

Indeed...I wouldn't mind a thundery thrashing AM and PM  

[elfinpunk]

The biggest storm I have ever seen down here started at 3am and was continuously firing until it REALLY kicked off at 8am. Finally blew itself out around 11am. 2001 I think that was, absolutely insane. For late day events it has always been rather poor down in the Bristol area since 2000 for some reason.x

Edit- quoted the wrong post, oops,removed it.

Edited June 3, 2015 by elfinpunk

[Methuselah]

Indeed...I wouldn't mind a thundery thrashing AM and PM

Is that like meteorological S&M?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like we have lots of happy bunnies today! 

 

I am worried we might have lots of un-happy bunnies tomorrow though

Edited June 3, 2015 by Surrey